Iran Talks: Assessing Negotiating Positions, Alternatives

On the radar: Khamenei’s positioning; Flexibility needed; About more than just technical details; Considering potential deals, alternatives; and a Tireless diplomat.

October 8, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Negotiating position - “Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated on Wednesday his country's ‘red lines’ in negotiations with world powers over its controversial nuclear programme due to resume next week in Vienna,” reports AFP. Khamenei specifically outlined, "the absolute need for Iran's uranium enrichment capacity to be 190,000 SWU [by 2021]" -- close to 20 times its current processing ability. Iranian officials say this is needed to produce fuel for its Bushehr reactor, which is being provided by Russia until 2021.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1rh06Nq

Deal achievable, if Iran adjusts approach - Why is Khamenei’s negotiating position unrealistic and what could an achievable deal look like? Daryl Kimball explains in “Iran’s Inflexibility on Enrichment a Barrier to Progress on Nuclear Deal” for Arms Control Now. http://bit.ly/YGbSdJ

If no deal - “If talks collapse and the interim agreement is allowed to expire, we are likely to witness a significant escalation of regional tensions,” writes Jofi Joseph. Iran would likely increase uranium production, reduce IAEA access, introduce more advanced centrifuges and shorten its potential pathway to a bomb. “Threats of military action against Iran will resurface, even as a U.S.-led coalition pursues action against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, supported tacitly by Iran itself.”

--”Is this outcome in the best interests of the United States and its P5+1 partners? Do they benefit from a return to an unrestrained Iranian nuclear program under minimal international oversight, especially if the price to avoid such an outcome would be limited and very modest sanctions relief? Most observers would agree this is certainly not the case. Therefore, it only makes sense for the P5+1 to seek a more permanent extension of the interim agreement in the event a final agreement remains beyond grasp this fall.

--“Maintaining the core elements of the interim deal, especially the verifiable restrictions on the size and scope of Iran’s uranium enrichment, would freeze the Iranian nuclear program in place while leveraging existing sanctions and other forms of pressure to compel Tehran into an eventual compromise.” Full article in The Diplomat. http://bit.ly/1txLZVR

Making the hard choice - The lack of a breakthrough last month in negotiations with Iran “has also sparked renewed debate on whether no deal would be better than the best deal likely to be on offer,” writes Amb. Peter Jenkins. “It is not obvious that the US and EU will have a better option on Nov. 24 than to cut a deal on the basis of Iran continuing to operate 10,000 centrifuges.”

--Amb. Jenkins in an assessment of the risks and benefits of such a deal. He concludes that, “Assuming that other outstanding issues can be resolved satisfactorily, a comprehensive agreement on Nov. 24 offers a much fairer prospect than no agreement...However imperfect, in Western eyes, such an agreement might seem if Iran continues to operate 10,000 IR-1s, it would be a better platform for developing the West’s relations with Iran in positive ways than no agreement.” Full article at Lobe Log. http://bit.ly/1EpuijO

Beyond centrifuge numbers - “As the November 24 deadline for a deal over Iran's nuclear program approaches, Washington seems fixated on the technical details of what an agreement should look like: the types of centrifuges Iran might be able to keep, for example, or the level of low-enriched uranium it could stockpile,” writes Daniel Brumberg for CNN. “As important as these discussions are, the focus on mechanics risks missing a bigger and arguably more important reality: that the negotiations are central to the future of Iran's political system.”

--“If the United States is serious not just about placing significant (if imperfect) limits on Iran's nuclear program, but also encouraging a political dynamic that strengthens reform-minded Iranian leaders and fosters a more cooperative Iranian foreign policy abroad, then Washington should make every reasonable effort to seal a comprehensive nuclear deal and secure Congress' support for it. The alternative -- insisting on imposing onerous terms that would virtually assure Iran's quitting the negotiations -- would simply bolster Iran's hard-liners, while making it far easier for Tehran to pursue a nuclear program largely free of international supervision.” Read the full column here. http://cnn.it/1ncQwAi

Behind the scenes - “Along with fellow veteran US diplomats Thomas Pickering, William Miller and Frank Wisner, [Amb. William] Luers has spent the past dozen years pursuing a quiet “track 2” dialogue bringing American and Iranian former officials and scholars together,” writes Laura Rozen in a profile of Amb. Luers, his diplomatic career and his years promoting diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran.

--Rozen chronicles how Luers and other partners with the Iran Project initiated their track two work, how the conversation with Iranians evolved, and how - through a dozen years of tireless effort - they built a dialogue that helped the U.S. “normalize” diplomacy with Iran. Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1y6F2lG

Tweet - @TheWarRoom_Tom: Previous tweet translated: Almost half of Ukrainians surveyed would like #Ukraine to return to status as #nuclear weapons state. #BadIdeas

Iran defends visa denial - “Iran has dismissed criticism by the International Atomic Energy Agency of its refusal to let one IAEA expert into the country as part of a team investigating allegations of nuclear weapons research,” reports Fredrik Dahl for Reuters.

--“Tehran said it had a sovereign right to decide who to let onto its territory. But its failure to issue a visa to an IAEA official, that diplomatic sources said was probably a Western atomic bomb expert, may add to longstanding Western suspicions it is stonewalling the U.N. agency's inquiry.” Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/1y6eIrR

Quick Hit:

--“Kerry Urges Senate to End Nuclear Weapons Testing,” by William Lambers for Huffington Post. http://huff.to/1oQwAyD

Events:

--“The Governance of the Nuclear Security Enterprise,” featuring Norm Augustine, Congressional Panel on the Governance of the Nuclear Security Enterprise. 12:15-1:30 p.m., Oct. 9, University of Maryland. 1203 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD. Details here. http://bit.ly/10moaJr

--Air Force Global Strike Command, "Long Range Strike," featuring Lt. Gen. Stephen Wilson, sponsored by the Air Force Association. 9:30-10:30 a.m., Oct. 9, Key Bridge Marriott, 1401 Lee Highway, Arlington, VA. Register online.http://conta.cc/1rh2HXY

--“Destroying Syria’s Chemical Weapons Aboard MV Cape Ray,” featuring Timothy Blades, Edgewood Chemical Biological Center. 12:30-2:00 p.m., Oct. 10, National Defense University, Lincoln Hall, Room 1119, 300 Fifth Ave. SW, Fort McNair, Washington. Off the record. RSVP to Nima Gerami at Nima.Gerami@ndu.edu.

--"Can We Abolish Nuclear Weapons Before We Abolish War?," featuring Tad Daley, Center for War/Peace Studies, and former Sen. Harris Wofford (PA). 11:30 a.m.-2:00 p.m., Oct. 14, Women’s National Democratic Club, 1526 New Hampshire Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1oQF2xL

--"Solving the Iranian Nuclear Puzzle," featuring Robert Einhorn, Brookings Institution; Elizabeth Rosenberg, Center for a New American Security; and Alireza Nader, RAND Corporation. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. 9:45-11:00 a.m., Oct. 20, at Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

--"The Unaffordable Arsenal: Reducing the Costs of the Bloated U.S. Nuclear Stockpile," featuring Tom Collina, Ploughshares Fund. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. 11:00-11:30 a.m., Oct. 20, at Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

--Des Browne, former U.K. Defense Secretary, keynote speech. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. Noon-12:55 p.m., Oct. 20, at the Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

--"The Future of the Nonproliferation and Disarmament Regime," featuring Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Countryman and Guakhar Mukhatzhanova, Monterey Institute. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. 1:00-1:30 p.m. Oct. 20, At Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66