Stunted Legacy: Nuclear Weapons Spending Surging, Anti-Terror Spending Cut, Reductions Slowed

On the radar: Backsliding on nuclear policy; UNGA expectations; Trouble awaits overly secret bomber; Scotland stays in, kick nukes out; PM Cameron to meet Rouhani; and Pyongyang's new generation of nuclear scientists.

September 23, 2014 | Edited Will Saetren and Jacob Marx

Legacy off track - “For much of the past six years, President Obama has talked about working toward a world without nuclear weapons. Yet his administration is now investing tens of billions of dollars in modernizing and rebuilding America’s nuclear arsenal and facilities… This is a shortsighted and disappointing turn,” writes The New York Times editorial board.

--”When he first came to office, Mr. Obama was clear sighted about nuclear dangers and ambitious in his disarmament goals. He signed the New Start treaty with Moscow aimed at reducing deployed strategic nuclear weapons to 1,550 on each side, down from 2,200, by February 2018. But to win Republican support for the treaty in 2010, Mr. Obama made a Faustian bargain, promising to spend $84 billion to upgrade aging nuclear weapons over the next decade...The Congressional Budget Office now estimates that Mr. Obama’s plans will cost $355 billion over the next decade; other studies put the price at $1 trillion over three decades.”

--“Not only is this spending unwise and beyond what the nation can afford, multiple studies by the Government Accountability Office have described the modernization push as badly managed. Worse yet, the administration is making a foolish trade-off — pouring money into modernization while reducing funds that help improve security at nuclear sites in Russia and other countries where terrorists or criminals could get their hands on nuclear materials.” Read the full editorial here. http://nyti.ms/1x6OMMn

Experts react - "We believe the current nuclear spending plan is unsustainable and will deplete resources from higher priorities...In its review, the Obama administration needs to make significant changes to existing nuclear force modernization plans that trim back, and in some cases, forgo unnecessary programs, such as a new nuclear-armed cruise missile, and save taxpayer dollars," said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, in response to the recent New York Times report on nuclear weapons spending.

--"Perpetual nuclear modernization is inconsistent with the pledge made 45 years ago by the the United States and the other NPT nuclear-weapons states to pursue nuclear disarmament, and is inconsistent with President Obama's call for the pursuit of a world without nuclear weapons," said Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists. Read the full press release from arms control experts here. http://bit.ly/1qq0xVj

Great expectations - “A year ago, a historic phone conversation between President Obama and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, on the last day of the annual U.N. General Assembly, electrified the foreign policy and diplomatic universe,” writes Anne Gearan for The Washington Post.

--“One year later, the two nations have not closed a nuclear deal. Meanwhile, the rise of the Islamic State — opposed by both the United States and Iran — has raised awkward questions about how two countries estranged for 35 years might unite against a common foe. This year’s General Assembly, which opens this week, presents yet another opportunity for the United States and Iran to test each other’s willingness to engage on a host of issues.” Read the full story here. http://wapo.st/1ppmAeA

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: Yes a final deal yet to be inked but the first meaningful constraints on Iran nuke program in a decade aint nothing http://ow.ly/BOLF8

Bomber’s secrecy problem - “Like a dark planet that can only be detected by the visible orbits it perturbs, the Air Force’s new $50 billion Long Range Strike Bomber project will be ever-present but invisible in defense budget debates in the next few months,” writes Bill Sweetman for The Daily Beast. “And that’s not necessarily a good thing.”

--“Keeping technical details secret can be defended: the size and shape of a stealth aircraft can guide the development of countermeasures. But beyond that point, secrecy creates its own problems: high costs and weak oversight. If the technology works well, secrecy can inhibit its deployment.” Read the full story here. http://thebea.st/ZE0XCg

After the referendum - Just because Scotland voted “No,” doesn't mean the “U.K.’s nuclear program can continue as normal,” writes Bradley Harris in The Hill. “The U.K. should move ahead to dismantle a program that wastes precious resources on weapons that do not contribute to Britain’s national security.”

--”First, nuclear weapons are a drain on national resources,” especially at a time when the British Army is downsizing by 20 percent. “Second, nuclear weapons have failed to make the United Kingdom safer...Finally, Britain’s leaders should recognize that the escalating cost of nuclear weapons damages their standing with NATO allies.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1uCiKmH

Requesting backup - UK Prime Minister David Cameron is reportedly set to meet Hassan Rouhani on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, a source in the British leader's office told Reuters. “Cameron is expected to ask Rouhani to drop his support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, to tell him that developing nuclear weapons is unacceptable, and to urge him to join the international coalition against IS.” Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/1yoOQIK

Test ban - Dr. Lassina Zerbo, the Executive Secretary of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBO), sat down for an interview with Jeffrey Lewis on the Arms Control Wonk podcast. Topics include Dr. Zerbo’s biography, arms control technology, and bringing the CTBT into force. Listen here. http://bit.ly/1skCwqm

Changing of the guard - “While most observers focus on Pyongyang's nuclear and missile tests, they ignore the shift happening in North Korea's WMD community: a newer generation is replacing the North Korean scientists who played a key role in developing Pyongyang's WMDs,” writes Michael Madden for Foreign Policy. “This new generation will play a central role in determining whether North Korea will become a (small) nuclear power… [and develop] the capability to launch rockets that can reach the United States.” Read the full story here. http://atfp.co/1uhva6S

Quick Hit:

--“Iran Digs in on Underground Nuke Facility,” by George Jahn for the Associated Press. http://abcn.ws/XUrNV9

Events:

--President Barack Obama and President Hassan Rouhani speaking at the United Nations General Assembly. Week of Sept. 24 in New York.

--"Nuclear Deterrence Matters," with Lt. Gen. James Kowalski, U.S. Strategic Command. Part of the Huessy Congressional Breakfast Seminar Series. 8:00-9:00am Sept. 25, at the Capitol Hill Club, 300 First St. SE, Washington. RSVP online. http://conta.cc/1lQF5xj

--"The Regional Implications of a deal with Iran,” with Ken Pollack, Farideh Farhi, John Garver, Amb. Chas Freeman, and Haleh Esfandiari. Sept. 29, 2:30pm at the Washington Marriott. Part of the NIAC Leadership Conference. Details here. http://bit.ly/XvQffI

--Eric Schlosser discusses his book, Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety, at the World Affairs Council of Northern California. Sept. 29 in San Francisco. Details here. http://bit.ly/1qrePcW

--"Nuclear Stability in South Asia," Oct. 1, Noon-2:00pm, at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Suite 1225, 1400 K St. NW, Washington. Featuring Sumit Ganguly, Indiana University; Gaurav Kampani, University of Tulsa; David Karl, Asia Strategy Initiative; Col. David Smith, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Stephen Schwartz, Monterey Institute of International Studies. Sponsored by the Center on American and Global Security at Indiana University Bloomington. RSVP Here. http://bit.ly/1odeg2m

--Public meeting for the Commission to Review the Effectiveness of the National Energy Laboratories. Oct. 6, 10:00am-3:30pm in Alexandria, VA. Details here. http://1.usa.gov/1udhOIV