The U.S. Nuclear Buildup and Looming Budget Trainwreck

On the radar: New nukes, more money, more problems; Creative solution for Iran’s centrifuges; GOP letter on Iran talks; Tehran’s fuel “needs”; and Pakistan expanding tactical, sea-based arsenal.

September 22, 2014 | Edited by Will Saetren and Jacob Marx

Trillion-dollar trainwreck - The “President who campaigned for ‘a nuclear-free world’ and made disarmament a main goal of American defense policy,” is overseeing a revitalization of America’s nuclear weapons industry, write David Sanger and William J. Broad of the The New York Times. By modernizing America’s nuclear infrastructure, Obama had sought to “speed arms refurbishment, raising confidence in the arsenal’s reliability and paving the way for new treaties that would significantly cut the number of warheads.”

--Because of partisan politics however, “modernization of nuclear capabilities has become an end unto itself” and pushed nuclear weapons spending to an all-time high of approximately $10 billion per year. Estimates by the Monterey Institute of International Studies place the “total cost of the nuclear enterprise over the next three decades at roughly $900 billion to $1.1 trillion.”

--“The looming crackup between trillion-dollar plans and tight budgets is starting to get Washington’s attention. Modernization delays are multiplying and cost estimates are rising. Panels of experts are bluntly describing the current path as unacceptable.” As Jeffrey Lewis put it, “There isn’t enough money...You’re going to get a train wreck.” Read the full story here. http://nyti.ms/Z9sRpV

Cited above:

--”Trillion Dollar Nuclear Triad: US Strategic Modernization over the Next Thirty Years” by Jon Wolfsthal, Jeffrey Lewis and Marc Quint of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies. January 2014. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1dg09rU

--”Projected Costs of U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2014 to 2023” from the Congressional Budget Office, December 2013. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1cMBu8Q

Tweet - @PJCrowley: The Cold War has been over for 25 years. As we modernize we should debate whether we still need a nuclear triad. nyti.ms/1sgh8Ta

Save face, call a plumber - In the search for creative proposals that limit Iran’s nuclear program but allow the Rouani government to save face in final deal, negotiators have proposed allowing Iran to disconnect its centrifuges, writes David Sanger for the New York Times.

--“The idea is to convince the Iranians to take away many of the pipes that connect their nuclear centrifuges... That way, the Iranians could claim they have not given in to Western demands that they eliminate all but a token number of their 19,000 machines, in which Iran has invested billions of dollars and tremendous national pride. And if the plumbing is removed, experts at America’s national nuclear laboratories have told the Obama administration, the United States and its allies could accurately claim that they have extended the time Iran would need to produce enough fuel for a bomb — and given the West time to react.” Read the full story here. http://nyti.ms/1ponR5H

State of play?

--”Iranian Conservatives, Reformists Unreceptive to U.S. Nuclear Proposal” by Ramin Mostaghim and Paul Richter of the LA Times. http://lat.ms/XX14b2

--”Diplomats: Iran Receptive to New Nuke Proposal” by AP. http://abcn.ws/1uSCMLX

Let diplomacy work - In a Sept. 19 letter to John Kerry, 31 Republican senators requested that the administration address specific question about the U.S. negotiating position on nuclear talks with Iran. “The P5+1 and Iran talks are complicated enough without partisan senate pressure,” writes Kelsey Davenport in Arms Control Now. “While the negotiations are ongoing, Congress should not push the administration to stake out its positions. It is counterproductive and could undermine the United States and its P5+1 partners while the talks are ongoing,” argues Davenport. Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1ylXJmx

--Read GOP letter here. http://bit.ly/1poqXXt

Sticking around - Russia’s recent aggression in Ukraine seems to have dashed the hopes expressed by Obama that "bold reductions" in U.S. and Russian tactical nuclear weapons are needed to ease the risk of annihilation in Europe,” writes Ralph Vartabedian and W.J. Hennigan for the LA Times. Stephen Rademaker, the assistant secretary of State for international security and nonproliferation during the George H.W. Bush administration recently said, "As long as Russia is invading its neighbors, they [NATO’s B61s] are going to stay there at a minimum." Read the full story here. http://lat.ms/1rfCEnr

Meeting Iran’s fuel needs - Part of Iran’s calculations for a nuclear deal is that it wants the means to independently produce reactor fuel in case foreign supply contracts are broken. “Iran will have to accept that it can’t fully avoid reliance on foreign fuel suppliers. But the West must also understand Iran’s supply concerns. Tehran may not be correct in its assessment of its own practical [enrichment] needs, but as long as it believes it is, its fears have to be addressed for a final deal to be reached,” write Dina Esfandiary and Ariane Tabatabai for the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. Full post and recommendations here. http://bit.ly/ZCaNEC

You scratch my back - “Iran is ready to work with the United States and its allies to stop Islamic State militants, but would like more flexibility on Iran's uranium enrichment program in exchange,” unnamed senior Iranian officials have told Reuters. Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/1od4XPZ

On a boat - “Pakistan is advancing toward a sea-based missile capability and expanding its interest in tactical nuclear warheads,” report Tim Craig and Karen DeYoung for The Washington Post. “The acceleration of Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programs is renewing international concern about the vulnerability of those weapons in a country that is home to more than two dozen Islamist extremist groups.” Read the full story here. http://wapo.st/XMATTT

Quick Hit:

--“US, Canadian jets intercept Russian planes,” by Robert Wong for The Hill. http://bit.ly/1ylYU5b

Events:

--President Barack Obama and President Hassan Rouhani speaking at the United Nations General Assembly. Week of Sept. 24 in New York.

--"Nuclear Deterrence Matters," with Lt. Gen. James Kowalski, U.S. Strategic Command. Part of the Huessy Congressional Breakfast Seminar Series. 8:00-9:00am Sept. 25, at the Capitol Hill Club, 300 First St. SE, Washington. RSVP online. http://conta.cc/1lQF5xj

--"The Regional Implications of a deal with Iran” with Ken Pollack, Farideh Farhi, John Garver, Amb. Chas Freeman, and Haleh Esfandiari. Sept. 29, 2:30pm at the Washington Marriott. Part of the NIAC Leadership Conference. Details here. http://bit.ly/XvQffI

--Eric Schlosser discusses his book, Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety, at the World Affairs Council of Northern California. Sept. 29 in San Francisco. Details here. http://bit.ly/1qrePcW

--"Nuclear Stability in South Asia," Oct. 1, Noon-2:00pm, at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Suite 1225, 1400 K St. NW, Washington. Featuring Sumit Ganguly, Indiana University; Gaurav Kampani, University of Tulsa; David Karl, Asia Strategy Initiative; Col. David Smith, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Stephen Schwartz, Monterey Institute of International Studies. Sponsored by the Center on American and Global Security at Indiana University Bloomington. RSVP Here. http://bit.ly/1odeg2m

--Public meeting for the Commission to Review the Effectiveness of the National Energy Laboratories. Oct. 6, 10:00am-3:30pm in Alexandria, VA. Details here. http://1.usa.gov/1udhOIV