An Iran Deal and U.S. Regional Interests

On the radar: More at stake with a deal; NATO’s irrelevant nukes; Nuclear negotiations resume; Rouhani could walk; Not a “right” nor recognition; and Sherwood-Randall and Scheinman confirmed.

September 19, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Follow-on effects - “The significance of an agreement, and thus what is at stake in whether or not one is reached, go far beyond the nuclear minutiae. They extend to the capacity of the United States to address fully and effectively many problems in the Middle East and South Asia,” writes Paul Pillar in The National Interest.

--“A successful nuclear agreement, by resolving the issue that has so heavily dominated for years the U.S.-Iranian relationship in particular, is likely to have other repercussions in the Middle East. This is partly because it would open up opportunities in the U.S.-Iranian relationship itself to address other problems of mutual concern. It is also because, given the importance of the United States to many states in the region, there are apt to be secondary effects involving the relations of those states with Iran.”

--“Movement toward a more normal U.S.-Iranian relationship would be a step toward making possible the practice of U.S. regional diplomacy without having one hand tied behind our back—tied by ourselves because we have subordinated so much else to the nuclear obsession.” Read the full post here. http://goo.gl/9TCorC

Troops before nukes - “NATO’s nuclear weapons strategy in Europe is no longer relevant and has done nothing to stop Russia’s unlawful aggression, and the dollars being spent on these weapons have diverted critical funds from the conventional forces that actually provide a reliable deterrent,” writes Rep. Mike Quigley (D-IL) in Defense One.

--“If our NATO allies insist on continuing this outdated strategy, it is reasonable to ask them to pay their share of the bill. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the cost to deploy and rebuild the U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe over the next decade at $7 billion. This is money that could be put toward improving NATO’s conventional defenses.” Read the full article here. http://goo.gl/0i9F8o

Kingdom still united - Scotland votes to remain part of the United Kingdom and will retain its nuclear arsenal. From Al-Jazeera. http://goo.gl/qwurqu

P5+1 back to work - U.S. and Iranian negotiators head back to the negotiating table on Friday against the backdrop of the UN General Assembly. “No major breakthroughs are expected at the talks that are to continue until the end of next week, but the pressure is on both sides to find ways to narrow the gaps,” according to Carole Landry, reporting for AFP.

--”Coming into New York, I think many of us were not optimistic," said a senior U.S. official speaking on the condition of anonymity, "but it is clear that everyone has come here to go to work.” Read the full story here. http://goo.gl/Km17Ia

Tweet - @NTI_WMD: What if a peaceful rocket was mistaken for a #nuclear attack? Guess what? It was #closecalls http://t.co/UClrw67nYs

Don’t let Rouhani walk - The West needs to allow Rouhani to present a deal to the Iranian people that will allow him to save face, argues Trita Parsi in Foreign Policy.

--“The Iranian public is resistant on two key matters: rolling back the number of operating centrifuges and limiting Iran's ability to conduct nuclear research. Demands for strict limitations on these issues by the P5+1… would essentially be deal breakers for the Iranian public: 70 percent oppose dismantling half of Iran's existing centrifuges and 75 percent oppose limits on Iran's research activity.”

--”Rather than return to Tehran with a deal they know will get rejected, potentially ending their political careers, Rouhani's negotiators may opt to leave the talks without a deal at all and instead play the nationalist card: blaming the West for the collapse of the talks and declaring that while Tehran was ready for a deal, it could not accept one that violated Iranian sovereignty and rights. This is a far worse outcome for Tehran than a good deal, but several factors may cause the Rouhani team to believe it can survive walking away from the nuclear talks.” Read the full story here. http://goo.gl/8yYRmG

UNGA preview - As Rouhani is set to return to the UN General Assembly, it is no longer enough to be the anti-Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, writes Barbara Slavin in Al-Monitor. A year after his first appearance at UNGA, Rouhani needs to move swiftly to secure a nuclear deal in order to prove that his promises from last years UNGA speech are more than just words. Read the full story here. http://goo.gl/A2nUlB

Report - “Iran Sanctions” by Kenneth Katzman of the Congressional Research Service, August 19, 2014. http://goo.gl/MIW3BN

Not a “right” - “As talks between Iran and the P5+1 resume in New York this week, myths and misconceptions about Iran’s nuclear program still persist, and threaten to derail negotiations,” writes Kelsey Davenport for Arms Control Now. Among these is the perception that “An Iranian uranium-enrichment program in a final nuclear agreement goes against U.S. policy on the right to enrich.”

--“While the NPT clearly affords non-nuclear weapons states access to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes in return for pledging not to pursue nuclear weapons and having IAEA safeguards in place, it does not specifically afford or deny enrichment and reprocessing rights to member states.” Read the full article here. http://goo.gl/09qGwV

Tweet - @AncientPics: September 19, 1957 – First American underground nuclear bomb test (part of Operation Plumbbob). http://t.co/pHLdLrfnxi

Confirmed - In their last legislative action before leaving for midterms, the Senate confirmed several important nuclear security officials including Adam Scheinman to be special representative of the President for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall to become the new number two at the Department of Energy. Scheinman’s nomination had been pending for 427 days. Ramsey Cox has the full confirmation list for The Hill. http://goo.gl/wyDAkp

Loved not wisely, but too well - A defense contractor, who gave nuclear strategy secrets to a Chinese national with whom he was romantically involved has been sentenced to 7 years for espionage. Phillip Swarts has the full story for the The Washington Times. http://goo.gl/8KAaRO

Events:

--International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors meeting. Sept. 15-19 in Vienna.

--President Barack Obama and President Hassan Rouhani speaking at the United Nations General Assembly. Sept. 24 in New York.

--"Nuclear Deterrence Matters," with Lt. Gen. James Kowalski, U.S. Strategic Command. Part of the Huessy Congressional Breakfast Seminar Series. 8:00-9:00am Sept. 25, at the Capitol Hill Club, 300 First St. SE, Washington. RSVP online. http://conta.cc/1lQF5xj

--"The Regional Implications of a deal with Iran” with Ken Pollack, Farideh Farhi, John Garver, Amb. Chas Freeman, and Haleh Esfandiari. Sept. 29, 2:30pm at the Washington Marriott. Part of the NIAC Leadership Conference. Details here. http://bit.ly/XvQffI

--Eric Schlosser discusses his book, Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety, at the World Affairs Council of Northern California. Sept. 29 in San Francisco. Details here. http://bit.ly/1qrePcW