The Practical Limits of Transparency in an Iran Deal

On the radar: Verification matters but shouldn’t sink a deal; About Bolton and Yoo’s arms race; Not not talking about ISIL; Don’t tell anyone about Israel’s nukes; Doyle case to IG; and Studying the Trinity test’s toxic legacy.

September 16, 2014 | Edited by Will Saetren and Jacob Marx

We can’t handle the truth - “I sometimes hear my colleagues argue that Tehran has to come clean about its past nuclear weapons activities...This is a terrible idea,” writes Jeffrey Lewis for Foreign Policy. “Iran has denied all interest in a nuclear weapons program, despite considerable evidence to the contrary. If Iran simply admits the full scope of its nuclear weapons program, dropping a few surprises here and there, public sentiment will turn against any deal very quickly.”

--”The problem is that any deal with Iran is likely to depend on very fragile political coalitions within each of the countries. Moreover, the United States will have to sell any deal to skeptical allies. Iran must be forthcoming enough about its past nuclear weapons activities to show good faith, but a full accounting is likely to tear those coalitions apart.”

--“A full Iranian disclosure about the scope of its past, and possibly continuing, nuclear weapons programs is far more likely to kill any chance of an agreement...Iran and the West are now as close to consummating a deal as ever...A failure likely means a military conflict, an Iranian bomb, or both.” Read the full column here. http://atfp.co/1BH4MEt

Tweet - @KelseyDav: Iran Nuclear Arms Probe May Never Yield Verdict, IAEA Says via @BloombergNews http://bloom.bg/1qR7eVu

Don’t rekindle the arms race - Backing out of the INF over Russian violations is neither strategically prudent nor financially affordable, writes Joe Cirincione in Defense One. “It has been one of the most successful arms control treaties in history... It sent 2,692 of these weapons to the recycling bin within a few short years, all but eliminating the possibility that the Soviets would be able to strike targets in Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, most of Asia or Alaska with nuclear weapons.”

--Without any nations asking for new weapons or offering to host them, “An effort to force-feed new nuclear weapons into Europe again would shatter the [NATO] alliance and trigger a Russian nuclear build-up.” Nuclear weapons are already buckling U.S. defense budgets, and the hundreds of NATO nuclear weapons in Europe have nothing to deter Putin’s recent aggression. “There is no evidence to suggest that a few hundred or a few thousand more would change Moscow’s calculus.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1uQTrO2

Tweet - @TheWilsonCenter: % of Americans who see Iran nuclear program as a "critical threat" drops 10 points since 2010: http://j.mp/X7Q4ql http://t.co/9nuxJrutFq

Israel’s arsenal is not a secret - “Israel has a substantial arsenal of nuclear weapons...But due to a quirk of federal secrecy rules, such remarks generally cannot be made even now by those who work for the U.S. government and hold active security clearances. In fact, U.S. officials, even those on Capitol Hill, are routinely admonished not to mention the existence of an Israeli nuclear arsenal and occasionally punished when they do so,” write Douglas Birch and R. Jeffrey Smith of the Center for Public Integrity.

--“The U.S. policy of shielding the Israeli program has recently provoked new controversy, partly because of allegations that it played a role in the censure of a well-known national laboratory arms researcher in July, after he published an article in which he acknowledged that Israel has nuclear arms. Some scholars and experts are also complaining that the government’s lack of candor is complicating its high-profile campaign to block the development of nuclear arms in Iran, as well as U.S.-led planning for a potential treaty prohibiting nuclear arms anywhere in the region.” http://bit.ly/1uDxIem

IG takes up Doyle case - “The case of James E. Doyle, a former Los Alamos National Laboratory employee who claims he was fired in retaliation for publishing an article critical of nuclear proliferation policies since the Cold War, is headed to the federal Department of Energy’s Inspector General for review,” reports Mark Oswald of the Albuquerque Journal. Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1AR6XTu

Open to Iran dialogue - Secretary of State John Kerry has said that the United States is open to pursuing discussions with Iran about how to navigate the threat posed by the Islamic state group, reports the Associated Press. This statement comes on the heels of comments from the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei, that Iran has no interest in cooperating with the United States on IS, calling the offer “hollow and self-serving.”

--“We’re not coordinating with Iran, but as I said, we’re open to have a conversation at some point in time if there’s a way to find something constructive,” Kerry said. When asked about the Ayatollah’s remarks Kerry responded that there are often discussions on the sidelines of nuclear talks. “I’m never going to shut the door to something that could solve a problem if there’s a way to do it.” Read the full story here. http://wapo.st/ZnZCPM

Nuclear force reform - In response to a scandal that rocked the Air Force’s Global Strike Command earlier this year, the Air Force has launched a comprehensive program to overhaul its nuclear forces, writes the Air Force Times. “That review, led to more than 600 recommendations from airmen, and about 95 percent have been approved for further development,” said Lt. Gen. Stephen Wilson, commander of Global Strike Command. Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/YOGv1y

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: "Incentive pay for ICBM airmen to start Oct. 1"@GFTrib_JRowell ow.ly/ByLAD

Trinity fallout study - “Nearly 70 years after the U.S. conducted the world's first atomic-bomb test here in the New Mexico desert, federal researchers are slated to visit the state this month to begin studying whether some residents developed cancer due to the blast. As part of the long anticipated project, set to start Sept. 25, investigators with the National Cancer Institute will interview people who lived in the state around the time of the 1945 Trinity test and assess the effects of consuming food, milk and water that may have been contaminated by the explosion.”

“The study will invariably explore the darker side of the Manhattan Project, which has played a storied role in New Mexico's economy and history. It also potentially could lead to residents' receiving compensation under a federal program for people who became ill after being exposed to radiation from nuclear testing, which currently doesn't include individuals who lived near the Trinity site.” Dan Frosch has the full story for The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1y8mZMR

Events:

--International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors meeting. Sept. 15-19 in Vienna.

--Center for Strategic and International Studies Project on Nuclear Issues presents Ambassador Bonnie Jenkins, Department of State's Coordinator for Threat Reduction Programs. Sept. 16 from 12:00-1:30pm at CSIS. Details here. http://bit.ly/W6m7Xj

--“Iranian Attitudes on Nuclear Negotiations with the P5+1" featuring Ebrahim Mohseni and Steven Kull. Sept. 17 from 10:00-11:30am at the Carnegie Endowment. Details here. http://bit.ly/1tqCz3r

--”Iran and Its Neighbors: Regional Implications for U.S. Policy of a Nuclear Agreement.” Welcoming remarks by Jane Harman, Director, President, and CEO, Woodrow Wilson Center and an introduction by Ambassador William Luers. Featuring panelists Ambassador Thomas Pickering, Ambassador Frank Wisner, Paul Pillar and Barnett Rubin. Sept 17. at 1pm. Full details here. http://bit.ly/1qdICXL

--“Deal or No Deal: How To Negotiate Successful Nuclear Agreements” with Robert Litwak, Michael Krepon, and Joel Wit at the Wilson Center. Sept 17 2:30-4:30pm. Details here. http://bit.ly/1qJueEu

--“The Contribution of the National Laboratory System to U.S. National Security” discussion with Paul Hommert, Charles McMillan and Adam Schwartz. Sept. 17th from 5:30-7:00pm at George Washington University. Details here. http://bit.ly/1q6Y9IP

--“Understanding an Iranian Nuclear Deal,” featuring David Albright and Jon Wolfsthal. Thursday, Sept. 18, 10:00-11:30am, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 1400 K Street, NW, Suite 1250, Washington, DC. Full details here. http://bit.ly/1m84WRR

--"The Regional Role of Post-Agreement Iran" by Paul Pillar, Researcher, Security Studies Program, Georgetown University. Center for International and Strategic Studies at Maryland Forum. Thursday, Sept. 18 from 12:15-1:30pm in room 1203 Van Munching Hall, College Park, Maryland. Full details. http://bit.ly/1u1Z77d

--Scottish Independence Referendum, Sept. 18. http://bit.ly/1jkLr2Z

--"The Regional Implications of a deal with Iran” with Ken Pollack, Farideh Farhi, John Garver, Amb. Chas Freeman, and Haleh Esfandiari. Sept. 29, 2:30pm at the Washington Marriott. Part of the NIAC Leadership Conference. Details here. http://bit.ly/XvQffI

--Eric Schlosser discusses his book, Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety, at the World Affairs Council of Northern California. Sept. 29 in San Francisco. Details here. http://bit.ly/1qrePcW