Russia’s Nuclear and Military Modernization Plans

On the radar: Russia’s ongoing military modernization; Northeast Asia security agreement; Maximalist demands and an Iran deal; and Turkey entering the missile defense bazaar.

September 11, 2014 | Edited by Will Saetren

Ongoing modernization, new context - President Vladimir Putin of Russia has vowed to counter recent military moves by the U.S. and NATO by creating a new generation of nuclear and conventional weapons, after the military successfully test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile from a nuclear submarine, reports the Associated Press.

--"We have warned many times that we would have to take corresponding countermeasures to ensure our security," Putin said, adding that he would now take personal charge of the government commission overseeing military industries. "I would like to underline that we only take retaliatory steps."

--“Putin claimed that some in the West would like to pull Russia into a new arms race, but ‘we will not enter such race, it's absolutely excluded.’ Talking about potential threats, the Russian president specifically pointed at the U.S. missile defense program and Washington's plans to develop new conventional weapons that could strike targets anywhere in the world in as little as an hour with deadly precision.” Read the full story here. http://ti.me/1qmBA2V

Except the trolling, nothing in the above story is really new:

--”Putin’s New Model Army: Money and reform have given Russia armed forces it can use” by The Economist, May 24, 2014. http://econ.st/1nA35Rz

--”Nuclear Weapons Modernization: A Threat to the NPT?” by Hans Kristensen in Arms Control Today, May, 2014.http://bit.ly/YA902I

--”Russian Nuclear Forces, 2014” by Hans Kristensen in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March, 2014.http://bit.ly/1fELCal

--”Russia's Nuclear Forces: Between Disarmament and Modernization” by Pavel Podvigi for IFRI, Spring 2011. (pdf) http://bit.ly/WNQZw3

Continued tests - “Russia carried out a successful test of its new Bulava intercontinental nuclear missile on Wednesday and will perform two more test launches in October and November,” according to the head of the Russian Navy. Thomas Grove of Reuters has the story. http://reut.rs/1pbgVsF

Editors’ note - Early Warning will be on hiatus tomorrow because the editors will be out of range. We’ll return to our regular schedule on Monday. Enjoy the weekend.

Security Northeast Asia - A comprehensive security deal is needed in Northeast Asia to protect the region from nuclear capable North Korea, writes Morton Halperin in The Asahi Shinbum. “The United States seems to believe that North Korea will not, under any circumstances, give up its existing nuclear capability and has not been interested in trying to find a way forward.” It is time for them to find a way to do so.

--“The standoff between the United States and North Korea has lasted for several years. It results not only from the two governments’ differing security perspectives but also from their diametrically different understanding of their failed efforts to reach an agreement,” says Halperin. “In short each side believes that it had negotiated in good faith and met its commitments, and that the other had reneged.”

 

--In order to allay the fears of all sides, Halperin argues for a comprehensive Treaty on Peace and Security in Northeast Asia that would include the termination of state of war in Korea, creation of a permanent council on security, mutual declaration of no hostile intent, provisions of assistance for nuclear and other energy, termination of sanctions and a nuclear-weapons-free zone. Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1ss9O4L

”Illogical demands” - “Iran said world powers should abandon their ‘illogical demands’ over its nuclear program, ahead of talks on Thursday to try to bridge wide differences in positions and end the decade-old dispute by late November,” reports Fredrik Dahl for Reuters.

--“Diplomats say the main stumbling block is disagreement on how many centrifuges Iran should be allowed to keep to refine uranium, with Tehran rejecting demands to significantly reduce the number below the more than 19,000 it now has installed, of which roughly half are operating.” Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/1lWrVPr

Tweet - @KelseyDav: Both sides must modify illogical positions! Ahead of talks, Iran says West must drop 'illogical' nuclear demands http://t.co/Wc0Qxs1ydF

Quote - “Reaching a final agreement is a difficult job but it is possible nonetheless,” Vice-Chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission Mansour Haqiqatpour told the Tasnim News Agency. http://bit.ly/1qJk1JK

Marketing - “The U.S. government is continuing to advocate for the Patriot missile defense system offered by Raytheon Co and Lockheed Martin Corp in a Turkish tender after Turkey cited disagreements with the Chinese firm that initially won the bid [for Turkey’s missile defense buy],” reports Andrea Shalal of Reuters. Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/1uJUAH5

Tweet - @PIB_India: Agni-1 Successfully Launched http://t.co/e1voG0eUdt

Events:

--“Ending Nuclear Explosive Testing: A Discussion with Ambassador Thomas Graham” Sept. 12 from 12:00-2:00pm at George Washington University. Details here. http://bit.ly/1oYlo1y

--“Squaring the Iranian Nuclear Circle: Defining Uranium Enrichment Capacity and Other Key Issues” Discussion featuring Kelsey Davenport, James Walsh and Daryl Kimball. Sept. 15 from 9:30-11:00am at the Carnegie Endowment. Details here. http://bit.ly/1uG7HJo

--“Nuclear Weapons Testing: History, Progress, Challenges” a Special Event to Mark International Day Against Nuclear Tests, with presentations from: Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz, Under Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller, NNSA Administrator Frank G. Klotz and Dr. Lassina Zerbo, Executive Secretary of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization. Sept. 15 from 12:30-5:00pm at the U.S. Institute of Peace. http://bit.ly/1lynIS4

--International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors meeting. Sept. 15-19 in Vienna.

--Center for Strategic and International Studies Project on Nuclear Issues presents Ambassador Bonnie Jenkins, Department of State's Coordinator for Threat Reduction Programs. Sept. 16 from 12:00-1:30pm at CSIS. Details here. http://bit.ly/W6m7Xj

--“Iranian Attitudes on Nuclear Negotiations with the P5+1" featuring Ebrahim Mohseni and Steven Kull. Sept. 17 from 10:00-11:30am at the Carnegie Endowment. Details here. http://bit.ly/1tqCz3r

--”Iran and Its Neighbors: Regional Implications for U.S. Policy of a Nuclear Agreement.” Welcoming remarks by Jane Harman, Director, President, and CEO, Woodrow Wilson Center and an introduction by Ambassador William Luers. Featuring panelists Ambassador Thomas Pickering, Ambassador Frank Wisner, Paul Pillar and Barnett Rubin. Sept 17. at 1pm. Full details here. http://bit.ly/1qdICXL

--“The Contribution of the National Laboratory System to U.S. National Security” discussion with Paul Hommert, Charles McMillan and Adam Schwartz. Sept. 17th from 5:30-7:00pm at George Washington University. Details here. http://bit.ly/1q6Y9IP

--Scottish Independence Referendum, Sept. 18. http://bit.ly/1jkLr2Z

--Eric Schlosser discusses his book, Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety, at the World Affairs Council of Northern California. Sept. 29 in San Francisco. Details here. http://bit.ly/1qrePcW