Potential Solutions for an Iran Nuclear Agreement

On the radar: Getting to yes; 16,300 nuclear warheads; Delicate INF diplomacy; Arak modifications; Iran getting IR8; 65 years ago in Kazakhstan; and Global Thermonuclear War is not a game.

August 28, 2014 | Edited by Geoff Wilson, Jacob Marx and Benjamin Loehrke

Solutions - As negotiators from Iran and six world powers resume nuclear talks next month, arms control experts are converging on potential solutions for bridging gaps between negotiating positions and achieving a nuclear deal. New papers from the International Crisis Group, Arms Control Association and former negotiator Robert Einhorn offer similar recommendations “that would have Iran agree to reduce the size of its enrichment program in the near term while allowing it to conduct research on more efficient centrifuges,” reports Laura Rozen.

--“Bottom line, our proposed formula for defining Iran uranium-enrichment capacity may not deliver everything each side wants, but it delivers what each side needs...That is reducing Iran’s capacity to produce fissile material for many years to come, and for Iran, this formula not only eases the burden of nuclear-related sanctions, it would still give it a route to pursue a realistic indigenous civilian nuclear-energy program,” said Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association. Full story at Al Monitor. http://bit.ly/1nIs6ZR

Report - “Unless [Iran and the P5+1] learn the lessons of the last six months and change their approach for the next four, they will lose the opportunity for a resolution not just by the new 24 November deadline but for the foreseeable future. Both sides need to retreat from maximalist positions, particularly on Iran’s enrichment program. Tehran should postpone plans for industrial-scale enrichment and accept greater constraints on the number of its centrifuges in return for P5+1 flexibility on the qualitative growth of its enrichment capacity through research and development,” writes the International Crisis Group in a new policy briefing.

--Full report: “Iran and the P5+1: Getting to ‘Yes’” August 27, 2014. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1lyiO7K

16,300 - “There are approximately 16,300 nuclear weapons located at some 98 sites in 14 countries,” write Hans M. Kristensen and Robert Norris in a new report for The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. “Roughly 10,000 of these weapons are in military arsenals; the remaining weapons are retired and awaiting dismantlement. Approximately 4,000 are operationally available, and some 1,800 are on high alert and ready for use on short notice. Read the full report here. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1nItxYv

Tweet - @MarkThompson_DC: No wonder ICBMer morale is low—their pool tables aren’t level, and felt & bumpers are ragged. http://bit.ly/1AXpjV0

Handling INF diplomacy - Last month, the U.S. announced that Russia was not in compliance with the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty. “The U.S. administration appears to have taken the right approach. Facing a prospect of Russia’s unilateral withdrawal from the INF Treaty, it went public with the noncompliance finding, judging correctly that it will raise the political cost of the withdrawal. This is probably the strongest action that the situation warrants at this point. Whether this would be sufficient to prevent Russia’s pulling out of the treaty is another matter,” writes Pavel Podvig.

--“The best that the West can do is to keep calm and to avoid aiding Russia in its effort to unravel the treaty that is rightly regarded as one of the key elements of the post-cold war security structure.” Full post at the European Leadership Network. http://bit.ly/1oqU0Jo

Arms control worth it - “Overall, the implementation record of arms-control agreements with Russia has been highly successful—which is why both Republican and Democratic presidents have pursued such agreements. Without these efforts Russian forces would be unconstrained, our ability to verify what Russia is doing would be curtailed and we would have few options but to engage in a costly arms race,” writes Kingston Reif in a letter to Wall Street Journal.

--”There are serious compliance concerns associated with Russia's past and present implementation of some arms-control treaties. But that's not a reason to throw the arms-control baby out with the bath water.” Read the Letter. http://on.wsj.com/1q8eoEn

Arak to be modified - Iran’s Arak reactor is “in the process” of being modified to reduce its production of plutonium, announced Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. “Iranian officials have said its design will be modified to produce one kilogram (2.2 pounds) of plutonium a year instead of eight kilograms as originally planned.” AFP has the story. http://bit.ly/1p8cZZn

New centrifuge model - Iran announced it has completed mechanical testing on an advanced IR-8 centrifuge design. The IR-8’s have not been fed with Uranium gas. “Iran had informed the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency in December that it planned to install a single IR-8. The IAEA said in May that it had observed a new ‘casing’ at the site, but that it was not yet connected,” report Michelle Moghtader and Fredrik Dahl for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1C2MZbV

Against Nuclear Testing - August 29th marks the 65th anniversary of the first Soviet nuclear test in Kazakhstan and is the World Day Against Nuclear Tests. As UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon writes, such tests had “a terrible effect on the local population and environment…[and] became hallmarks of a nuclear arms race, in which human survival depended on the doctrine of mutually assured destruction.”

--“Together, let us demand an end to all nuclear tests, get on with the unfinished business of achieving a world free of nuclear weapons, and usher in a safer and more prosperous future.” Full statement here. http://bit.ly/1oqTY44

Where’s the threat? - What is a proposed missile defense site on the East Coast supposed to defend us from? Not Iranian missiles, writes Greg Theilmann of the Arms Control Association in a letter to the Portland Press Herald. “No Iranian ballistic missiles even remotely capable of reaching the United States have ever been seen or flight-tested...[Testing] would push even a theoretical Iranian missile threat against the U.S. homeland into the next decade,” writes Thielmann. Read the Letter. http://bit.ly/1zKmS5I

Quick-hits:

--“Helping Ukraine Is a U.S. Imperative” by Secretaries Bill Perry and George Shultz in The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1lyiANU

--“Seventy Years After Hiroshima and Nagasaki” by Fumio Kishida for Foreign Affairs. http://fam.ag/1tGAq26

--“Tiny particles have big potential in debate over nuclear proliferation” by Elle Calderone for McClatchy. http://bit.ly/1pLR3IC

--“Iran and the Nuclear Sanctions Debate” by Albert Wolf in the National Interest. http://bit.ly/VPO8mb

Events:

--“Iran Negotiations Update: Verification vs. Breakout Capacity” a discussion with Daryl Kimball and Stephen Rademaker, moderated by Barbara Slavin. September 9 from 9:30-11:00am at The Atlantic Council. http://bit.ly/1ogX22L

--“Nuclear Weapons Testing: History, Progress, Challenges” a Special Event to Mark International Day Against Nuclear Tests, with presentations from: Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz, Under Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller, NNSA Administrator Frank G. Klotz and Dr. Lassina Zerbo, Executive Secretary of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization. Sept 15 from 12:30-5:00pm at the US Institute of Peace. http://bit.ly/1lynIS4

Dessert:

Matthew Broderick? - A computer game developer in Bristol, England, received an unexpected call from the police after his landlord discovered sketches for a new game called “Global Thermonuclear War.” The developer does not appear to be Strangelove material, telling the Guardian, “It was definitely very frightening to think that the police had a report in their system alleging that I was up to something suspicious involving nuclear warheads...I was worried they’d do a dawn raid or worse. It was genuinely scary for a while.” Alex Hern has the full story. http://bit.ly/VPgqwE