Air Force’s New ICBM Project Already Slipping

On the radar: Defense budget stalls ICBM replacement; Not in Maine’s backyard; Navy takes no-nonsense approach to nuclear cheating; Talbott on Putanism; James Doyle appeals DOE firing; Six things nuclear wonks fear most, and “The Beast” goes to Pyongyang.

August 21, 2014 | Edited by Geoff Wilson and Ben Loehrke

Minuteman 3.1 delay - “A lapse in funding is potentially delaying by two years the development of a new U.S. nuclear missile, according to budget documents provided to Congress and interviews with defense sources,” reports Elaine Grossman for Defense One. “The little-noticed spending gap of $28 million — a minuscule fraction of the Defense Department’s annual $500 billion budget — is for developing and testing new solid-state components seen as essential for guiding the future Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent missiles to their targets.”

--The Air Force plans to replace its fleet of Minuteman 3 ICBMs by “using some of today’s missile features — its basic design, communications systems and existing launch silos — while replacing aging rocket motors and targeting-guidance systems.” However, due to funding issues, the planned use of solid-state guidance systems “already appears to have jumped the rails.”

--“Anything they do that drives that cost up or delays the ability to start those programs I think imperils the whole ICBM force. There will come a point at which people will [say], ‘This is really expensive and it’s going to take a long time. Maybe we should just not do it and spend the money on the bomber instead,’” said Jeffrey Lewis of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Full report here. http://bit.ly/1q2xnih

Not in Maine’s backyard - “The United States has spent billions of dollars in the last decade on a missile defense system designed to protect the country from threats from other nations such as Iran and North Korea. Unfortunately, that system has proved to be as unreliable as it is expensive. But that isn’t stopping Congress from unnecessarily expanding the program, now based in California and Alaska, to the East Coast, with rural western Maine as one of four sites under consideration.”

--“The Pentagon has spent an estimated $40 billion thus far on the ground-based missile system, with frustrating results. In 17 tests, the system has registered just nine hits. What’s more, those tests have been conducted in controlled conditions favorable to the system operators and against targets with neither the range nor the speed of intercontinental ballistic missiles… Regardless, each of the proposed sites will now undergo the environmental review, funded by $30 million set aside in the defense budget by House Republicans… But we don’t need an environmental review to tell us that spending billions to expand an erratic missile defense system is a bad idea.” Full report from the Portland Press Herald editorial board here. http://bit.ly/1ti6fOA

Cheater, cheater - “At least 34 sailors are being kicked out of the Navy for their roles in a cheating ring that operated undetected for at least seven years at a nuclear power training site, and 10 others are under criminal investigation,” reports Robert Burns for AP. “The number of accused and the duration of cheating are greater than was known when the Navy announced in February that it had discovered cheating on qualification exams by an estimated 20 to 30 sailors seeking to be certified as instructors at the nuclear training unit at Charleston, South Carolina.”

--“After further investigation the Navy determined that 78 enlisted sailors were implicated. Although the cheating is believed to have been confined to a single unit at Charleston and apparently was not known to commanding officers, the misconduct had been happening since at least 2007, according to Adm. John M. Richardson, director of naval reactors.” Read the full report here. http://bit.ly/1kXVsaQ

On Putinism - “Putin’s [recent] aggression only makes sense against the backdrop of what has been the defining theme of his presidency: turning back the clock,” writes Strobe Talbott for Politico. “For years that has meant repudiating the transformational policies of his immediate predecessors and reinstating key attributes of the Soviet system within the borders of the Russian Federation. But there were also indications that, if given a chance, Putin might extend his agenda, his rule, and what he hopes will be his legacy beyond those borders.”

--“In designing new strategies for dealing with the Kremlin in the months and years ahead, we should remember, too, that Russia today is not the Soviet Union. It’s not stuck in the mid-20th century, to say nothing of the 19th. It’s nowhere near as monolithic and isolated as it was in the bad old days. Its people have had more than a taste of what it’s like to live in a normal, modern country. Russia is bigger and more resilient than Putinism; it will outlive the Putinist system just as it survived the one he is trying to resurrect.” Read the full piece here. http://politi.co/1tkO5fe

Appealed - “A former Los Alamos National Laboratory employee who claims he was fired in retaliation for publishing an article critical of nuclear proliferation policies since the Cold War is appealing a decision by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Hearings and Appeals (OHA) to deny his claim,” reports T. S. Last for The Albuquerque Journal. “The appeal states that OHA failed to consider the prospect that the classification determination occurred after the article was published, and Doyle’s firing may have been intentional and part of the retaliation.” Full report here. http://bit.ly/1ljniio

Nuclear threats - “What do hundreds of nuclear-weapons wonks discuss when cloistered for two hot August days in a windowless Midwest conference center? Turns out, it’s not just nuclear weapons. It’s about their deepest and well informed fears of how conflicts dominating today’s global headlines could translate into real life-altering events for Americans.” Elaine Grossman explains six strategic threats - from terrorism to a return to the Cold War - that worry today’s deterrence thinkers in Defense One. http://bit.ly/1pM1Pyc

Tweet - @wellerstein: Found this photo of a crushed nuclear warhead, presumably some kind of stress testing. Anyone know the Mark number? http://bit.ly/1BFYbLq

The leftovers - What remains of the Soviet intermediate-range missile sites that were destroyed under the INF treaty? A new photography project, “Remnants of Deterrence,” seeks to use images of those places today to create a historical document for those who marched in anti-nuclear demonstrations during the Cold War and for post-Cold War generations. See the full project here (Text in Dutch, but use Google Translate). http://bit.ly/1ogTihC

Generational trauma - Sixty-nine years ago, Tomiko Shoji survived the atomic bombing of Hiroshima. “Nearly seven decades later, Keni Sabath, Shoji’s youngest granddaughter, started to wonder: Had the bombing’s aftermath reshaped not just the psyche of her [grandmother] but also, in ways both culturally and historically particular, her own?” Full article by Sarah Stillman in The New Yorker. http://nyr.kr/1kOtAWH

Quick Hits:

--“Top Secret Air Force Bomber Program Moves Forward” by Stew Magnuson for National Defense. http://bit.ly/1mpVOTj

--“NATO Shouldn’t Let Ukraine Tensions Derail Nuclear Anti-Terror Reforms” by Martin Schram for McClatchy. http://bit.ly/1neyat0

--“WWII Atomic Bomb Project Had More Than 1,500 ‘Leaks’” by Steven Aftergood of the Federation of American Scientists. http://bit.ly/1z6HIMm

--“Woman sentenced in plot to steal U.S. nuclear secrets” by Joseph Kolb for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1z6JoWa

Event:

--“Iran Negotiations Update: Verification vs. Breakout Capacity” a discussion with Daryl Kimball and Stephen Rademaker, moderated by Barbara Slavin. Sept. 9 from 9:30-11:00am at The Atlantic Council. http://bit.ly/1ogX22L

Dessert:

The Beast in Pyongyang - Former NFL lineman, kickboxer, actor and professional wrestler Bob “The Beast” Sapp is headlining a martial arts event in Pyongyang later this month. “The two-day event is being staged by a Japanese pro-wrestler-turned-politician in an oddball attempt at sports diplomacy just as relations between North Korea and Japan are beginning to thaw.”

--Said Sapp about the trip, “This is the No. 1 unusual and a little bit crazy thing (I’ve ever done).” Full story from AP. http://wapo.st/1q2BFX0