Engaging Russia on Treaty Violations

August 7, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka

Countering cheating - “Last week, the Obama administration officially accused Russia of cheating on a landmark arms control pact, the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, signed in 1987 by U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev,” writes Tom Collina in Aviation Week. “A Russian violation of a major arms control treaty is a serious matter that deserves a serious response. But let’s not overreact. A ‘tough’ response, such as withdrawing from the treaty and building new weapons, would be premature and counterproductive. Russia’s actions pose more of a political challenge to the U.S. and its allies than a military threat.”

--“It would be foolhardy for the U.S. to withdraw from the INF Treaty, as Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and others have suggested, for the simple reason that Washington has no military need to deploy intermediate-range ground-launched ballistic or cruise missiles. If the U.S. fielded such weapons on its territory, it could threaten Canada and Mexico. Fielding these weapons in Europe would be a political non-starter and serve no useful strategic purpose; Washington has thousands of long-range nuclear weapons that can reach Russia on short notice.”

--“Yes, arms control can be a messy process, but it gets results. Existing U.S.-Russian arms control agreements, such as INF and the 2010 New Start, still serve as anchors of stability and predictability—but Russia must comply with its commitments. The U.S. can help by building international pressure on Moscow to stay in the fold, and by resisting any temptation to withdraw from INF. U.S. withdrawal would be a gift to Moscow, not a punishment.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/XFtvdF

Ploughshares Fund welcomes Tom Collina - Ploughshares Fund has announced the appointment of Tom Z. Collina as Director of Policy. Collina will be leading Ploughshares Fund efforts to advocate for smarter spending on nuclear weapons and encouraging more appropriate policies toward global nuclear issues including negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, arms control efforts with Russia and easing nuclear risks in Pakistan and North Korea.

--“We are very lucky to get someone with as much experience in the field as Tom,” said Joe Cirincione, President of Ploughshares Fund. “His deep understanding of national security policy -- and politics -- makes him a natural fit to take our focused policy efforts to a new level.” Full statement here. http://bit.ly/1uqWvjZ

Not tit-for-tat - “The United States has formally accused Russia of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty by testing a prohibited ground-launched cruise missile,” writes James Acton in The National Interest. “There are growing calls for the Obama administration to retaliate by backing out of this or other arms-control treaties. Such hasty steps would end up damaging the security of the United States and its allies, rather than enhancing deterrence or punishing Russia.”

--“Instead, the United States should be more strategic and start the process of enhancing its ability to track and intercept cruise missiles in Eastern Europe. By nullifying any advantage that Russia would gain through its noncompliance, this approach would be both more appropriate and more effective than the tit-for-tat playground tactics adopted by the average six-year-old.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1symAOE

Fresh talks - “Iranian and U.S. officials met in Geneva on Thursday for the first time since the Islamic state and six world powers agreed to extend talks to resolve a decade-long dispute over Iran's nuclear ambitions,” writes Parisa Hafezi in Reuters. “Announcing the talks in Washington on Wednesday, the State Department said Deputy Secretary of State Bill Burns would lead the U.S. delegation, which also includes Under Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser to Vice President Joe Biden.”

--“The talks between Iran and America in Geneva will help overcoming differences over the remaining disputes," an unnamed Iranian nuclear negotiator told Iran’s state news agency. Full story here. http://reut.rs/1koYDIn

Tweet - @marieharf: Iran talks update: Deputy Burns, U/S Sherman, & Jake Sullivan will hold bilateral consultations w/Iranian delegation tomorrow in Geneva

Sorry, skeptics - “Even before the ink was dry on last fall’s interim nuclear deal with Iran, some members of Congress bemoaned the ‘naiveté’ behind its formulation and predicted that the Iranians would fail to implement its terms,” writes Greg Thielmann in The National Interest. “They were wrong then, and they are wrong now in failing to recognize that a strong, final agreement is achievable and far preferable to the alternatives.”

--“Under Secretary Sherman made clear last week that difficult negotiations with Iran lie ahead and there is no guarantee a comprehensive agreement can be reached. Moreover, there will continue to be sharp differences of opinion in the U.S. Congress over what kind of outcome is necessary for U.S. security. But as the interim agreement moves into overtime, it’s worth checking the scorecard on whose assessments have been closest to the mark. Keeping in mind the positive results of the talks to date and considering the grim alternatives to diplomacy, there’s every reason to give the negotiators ample running room.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1oH6QY3

Sidelines - “Iran and six world powers will probably discuss a potential deal on Tehran's nuclear program on the sidelines of the annual U.N. General Assembly (UNGA) in September,” writes Michelle Moghtader in Reuters.

--“A meeting between Iran and the (powers) is very likely to take place around the UNGA, but the level of the meeting has yet to be determined," said senior Iranian negotiator Abbas Araghchi. Full story here. http://reut.rs/1segCE4

Before and after - The atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki “were the auspicious opening days of the [nuclear weapons era]. As we now enter its 70th year, we should be contemplating with wonder that we have survived. We can only guess how many years remain,” writes Noam Chomsky in the Huffington Post.

--“Some reflections on these grim prospects were offered by General Lee Butler, former head of the U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM), which controls nuclear weapons and strategy,” Chomsky says. “As General Butler observed, it is a near miracle that we have escaped destruction so far, and the longer we tempt fate, the less likely it is that we can hope for divine intervention to perpetuate the miracle.” Read the full article here. http://huff.to/WZxwtu

Need for disarmament - “August 6 is the 69th anniversary of the day the United States dropped an atomic bomb on Hiroshima,” writes Elaine Scarry in Time. “The bombing of Nagasaki took place on August 9. An appropriate way to reflect on these events might be to contemplate our current nuclear arsenal and ask why it is being kept in place.”

--“We have freedom over the ways we choose to express our opposition to these weapons. We have no freedom to determine what the stakes are or what happens if opposition fails,” Scarry says. “The U.S. arsenal has taken away the right of self-defense from all creatures everywhere. Arrangements for so vast a massacre have never before existed on Earth. These arrangements must be unmade. They will not be unmade unless each of us steps forward and insists that it happen.” Full piece here. http://ti.me/1sgXe9u

Tweet - @BulletinAtomic: #HiroshimaAnniversary http://bit.ly/1qXuHWO

History lesson - May 1945 Notes of the Interim Committee Meeting discusses (page 14) the Secretary of War’s conclusion that the United States should launch a surprise attack on Japan that would hit an industrial target near the home of workers. Document available here. http://bit.ly/1sAYXVV

New nuclear weapons - “When the United States dropped two atomic bombs on Japan 69 years ago, the shadows of charred silhouettes etched against the ruins of shattered cities indelibly marked nuclear weapons as forbidden tools of war. The indiscriminate carnage wrought in Hiroshima by ‘Little Boy’ (est. 15 kilotons) and Nagasaki by ‘Fat Man’ (est. 20 kt) has, so far, not been repeated.”

--“But seven decades later, the United States continues to pursue more accurate, ‘lower-yield’ nuclear bombs. Despite President Obama's 2009 speech in Prague in which he stated ‘clearly and with conviction America's commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons,’ the United States plans to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on its own nuclear weapons upgrades,modernization and ‘life extension programs’ (LEP).”

--“As the Obama administration, Congress, US nuclear laboratories, defense contractors and NNSA move forward with plans to upgrade and extend the life one of America's oldest and now most expensive nuclear gravity bombs, Hans Kristensen says a more immediate concern for Americans is, ‘Do you want to spend this large amount of money on this when your kids can't even get their school lunch?’" Full article here. http://bit.ly/1zXhfDh

Tweet - @cirincione: U.S. must step up to prevent nuclear catastrophe – Global Public Square -CNN.com Blogs http://cnn.it/V1MVHD

Weak policy - The Department of Energy could have avoided the public embarrassment of firing 17-year Los Alamos National Laboratory employee James Doyle if it had enacted a strong scientific integrity policy from the outset, writes Gretchen Goldman for the Union of Concerned Scientists. “Because of the lack of guidance in DOE policy, its employees are left to discern for themselves what is appropriate in this space, and as a result, they are vulnerable to the kind of political moves that Doyle lost his job over. In this setting, many federal employees are likely to opt out of publishing or speaking altogether rather than risk their jobs over talking publicly about their science policy expertise.”

--“Perhaps because he thought a decision this rash was possible, Doyle did go the extra step and seek approval from DOE for his publication even though no such approval was officially required… If anything, Doyle got more agency approval than necessary and still was fired when the DOE-approved content of his article was retroactively deemed classified. External experts have since assessed the content not to be classified, helping to make the case that this was in fact a strictly political move rather than a national security threat.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1nvNn8a

What’s at stake -“An informed public debate about U.S. nuclear weapons policies is essential. That Los Alamos Lab officials went out of their way to stifle such debate is especially disturbing. Ironically, their actions have now brought Doyle’s article to the attention of a much larger group of people,” writes Lisbeth Gronlund for the Union of Concerned Scientist. http://bit.ly/V0HAkj

New clues - “Declassified documents from the 1970s provide new evidence that federal officials believed bomb-grade uranium that disappeared from a Pennsylvania nuclear facility in the 1960s was likely taken for use in a clandestine Israeli atomic-weapons program,” writes John Emshwiller in The Wall Street Journal. “The documents, obtained earlier this year through public-records requests by a Washington-based nonprofit group, also indicate that senior officials wanted to keep the matter under wraps for fear it could undermine U.S. Middle East peace efforts.”

--“The theft suspicions surround events at a now-dismantled facility in Apollo, Pa., owned by a company called Nuclear Materials & Equipment Corp., or Numec. In the mid-1960s, some 200 pounds of bomb-grade uranium—enough possibly for several Hiroshima-sized bombs—couldn't be accounted for there. An FBI investigation begun in the late 1960s, which drew interest from top Nixon administration officials, including the president, couldn't determine what happened to the uranium, according to Federal Bureau of Investigation and other agency documents. But FBI officials did raise questions about suspected dealings between Numec's founder and president, Zalman Shapiro, and Israeli intelligence officials, according to government documents.” Full story here. http://on.wsj.com/1kJeZMx

Quick-hits:

--“On the Anniversary of Hiroshima, We Must Reinvigorate the Pursuit of a Safer and More Secure World” by Gabrielle Tarini in Nukes of Hazard. http://bit.ly/V2FqQH

--“Russia puzzles with deal/no deal with Iran on oil” in Reuters. http://reut.rs/1pD1ywr

--“Our mission should be to scrap nuclear arms” by Winslow Myers in The Boston Globe. http://bit.ly/1knLgIx