The Logic of Extending Talks with Iran

July 25, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Practical overtime - In response to the extension of the Iran nuclear negotiations, “Skeptics in both the U.S. and Iran have already started accusing each other of negotiating in bad faith and seeking only to buy time,” writes Ali Vaez in Al-Jazeera. “Some in the U.S. Congress are even trying to pass legislation that will torpedo the diplomatic process. They are wrong. There are many reasons it was a wiser choice to extend these talks rather than quit and go home.”

--“The talks were deadlocked mostly as a result of brinkmanship that stemmed from the looming July 20 deadline. Each party had put out maximalist opening gambits, dug its heels in and hoped that the other side would budge at the 11th hour. Each also incorrectly assumed that the other was desperate for a deal. Thus, no one blinked. With that miscalculation behind them, the parties can now pursue a more realistic, clear-eyed approach.”

--“Extending the talks is much better than the alternatives: a return to an escalating cycle of more sanctions and more centrifuges, an Iranian bomb or bombing Iran. At the very least, a breakdown now would reduce the chance of success later, as it would erode trust, discredit politicians who are deeply invested in diplomacy and harden positions.” Full piece here. http://alj.am/1kfbHk3

Averting threats - “The world has been so chaotic lately that it was easy to overlook two U.S. diplomatic maneuvers — involving the turbulent nations of Afghanistan and Iran — that avoided what could have been dangerous ruptures,” writes David Ignatius for The Washington Post. “The architect of these two agreements was Secretary of State John Kerry, who these days seems to be in constant airborne-mediation mode. In calmer times, Kerry would have made front-page headlines with his power-sharing pact in Afghanistan that defused talk of a possible civil war there and with his agreement to extend the delicate Iranian nuclear talks until November.”

--“The Afghanistan and Iran deals, though little discussed, are worth a closer look. They challenge the conventional wisdom about security problems in those two countries. In both cases, U.S. diplomatic pressure has so far averted what many analysts were predicting a year ago could pose new security threats for this country.” Read the full story here. http://wapo.st/1pk42wP

Respite - “After some unconvincing last-minute brinkmanship, Iran and the six world powers it is negotiating with decided on July 18th to extend the deadline for an agreement by four months...The decision to extend the negotiations makes sense for both sides and was widely expected,” writes The Economist.

--“For the mainly Western negotiating team known as the P5+1...the interim deal has increased, if only by a bit, the time it would take Iran to produce enough weapons-grade uranium to make a single nuclear device. Some progress has also been made on a plan to defang the heavy-water reactor at Arak that could provide Iran with an alternative plutonium path to a bomb, by adapting it to a design that produces far less plutonium… For Iran, the choice has been much starker. To walk away from the table at this point would be to condemn Iranians to the prospect of a failing economy permanently locked in the grip of an unyielding sanctions regime.” Full report here. http://econ.st/Uy5tiv

Expanded inspections, expanded resources - “The U.N. atomic watchdog said it needs 1 million euros in extra funding to help pay for its monitoring of a four-month extension of an interim nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers,” writes Fredrik Dahl in Reuters. “The IAEA saw its workload increase significantly under last November's preliminary accord, initially due to run for six months from Jan. 20 but now prolonged until Nov. 24. Its inspectors accessed Iran's uranium enrichment facilities of Natanz and Fordow daily, compared to about once a week before. The agency also provides monthly updates to member states on how Iran is implementing its commitments.” Full piece here. http://reut.rs/1pgGxYh

Tweet - @EliClifton: Groups taking a hard line on Iran sanctions accounted for 22/36 testimonies solicited by congressional cmtes bit.ly/1qCGnhx

THADD politics - “Russia voiced concern on Thursday over a U.S. proposal to station elements of a missile defense shield in South Korea, saying the move could provoke an arms race in the region,” writes Alissa de Carbonnel in Reuters.

--The foreign ministry said a U.S. official’s proposal to deploy a THAAD advanced missile-defense system to South Korea to counter the threat of North Korea's weapons capabilities is cause for concern. "This development will inevitably have a negative impact on the strategic situation in the region and could provoke an arms race in Northeast Asia." Full article here. http://reut.rs/1zc6ZGP

Tweet - @KelseyDav: Nuclear fog hangs over Modi’s U.S. visit - The Hindu http://bit.ly/1mMW2CH

Space threats - “The U.S. thought it won the space race long ago, but no victory lasts forever,” writes Patrick Tucker for Defense One. On Tuesday, Gen. William Shelton, the commander of Air Force Space Command, speaking at the Atlantic Council, said that U.S. dominance in space will be confronted by some real threats in the years ahead. When Defense One asked what those threats might consist of specifically, he replied jammers, lasers and tactical space nukes.

--“The nature of these threats hasn’t evolved much since the publication of this 2001 report by the Commission to Assess United States National Security Space Management and Organization, chaired by former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. One of the chief findings of the commission was that U.S. reliance on space was going to grow—making U.S.satellites and space assets an increasingly attractive target for those who mean us harm. But while the threats themselves haven’t changed in some 13 years, the technology behind them has made some more likely.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1zc5Ezz

Extended watch - “The United Kingdom will carry out a second year of special monitoring at a nuclear-arms site in breach of waste and safety rules,” Global Security Newswire reports. “The British Nuclear Regulation Office said in a yearly report that certain protective measures ‘do not meet expectations’ at the Atomic Weapons Establishment site at Aldermaston... The document notes that the site includes deteriorating structures, and airs worries over ‘the timeliness and quality of periodic reviews’ there.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1rDi8hd

New culprit - “Scientists now believe cat litter was not the only material responsible for an underground nuclear-waste leak,” Global Security Newswire reports. “A lead-tainted glove, as well as additional metallic and acidic materials, are other potential contributors to a thermal reaction hypothesized to have ruptured a container at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico.”

--“Experts hit a dead end when they tried to create a heat reaction with just nitrate salts and organic cat litter, which Los Alamos National Laboratory had recently adopted as a packing material… The materials suspected to have caused the rupture were specific to the waste barrel that broke open.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/WPV83h

Successful test - “China said its third anti-missile test in four years was a success, indicating progress in developing missile-defense technology,” reports Ting Shi in Bloomberg. “The People’s Liberation Army carried out a ‘land-based anti-missile technology experiment,’ according to a statement posted on the Defense Ministry website yesterday. The test ‘achieved the desired objectives,’ it said, without giving further details.” Full piece here. http://bloom.bg/1t3O7cu

Confirmation hearing - “Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall told senators Thursday that she has vast experience with defense and nuclear weapons, which would be a major part of her responsibilities as the second highest-ranking official at the Department of Energy,” writes Timothy Cama in The Hill. “At her confirmation hearing in front of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, Sherwood-Randall made it clear that she is committed to the DOE’s domestic energy missions as well. She is currently one of President Obama’s top advisors for defense.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1AfXZSy

MOX tour - “Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz is accepting Gov. Nikki Haley’s invitation and will be taking a tour of the MOX facility and other ongoing projects at the Savannah River Site,” writes Derrek Asberry in The Aiken Standard. “Moniz’s tour comes more than four months after Haley and the state of South Carolina filed a March 18 lawsuit against Moniz, the Energy Department and the NNSA. The lawsuit was filed following the March 4 release of President Barack Obama’s fiscal year 2014 budget request, which looks to place the facility in a cold stand-by.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1t3N0JO

Quick-hits:

--“When Iran Comes In from the Cold” by Jeffrey Payne and Schuyler Moore for The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1jZhnhC

--“Iran Negotiations Cannot Be Based on ‘Breakout’ Alone” by Laicie Heeley in Nukes of Hazard. http://bit.ly/1nGp2Ch

--“Pampa military museum gets part of old nuke bomb” from AP. http://bit.ly/1nozIV8

--“Top Indian, Pakistani Envoys to Hold Peace Talks Next Month” in Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/WPQMcr

Events:

--“Nuclear Politics on the Korean Peninsula.” Discussion with seven speakers. July 28 from 3:00 to 5:15 at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://ceip.org/1sTSpjA

--“Iran: Status of the P5+1” Hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Panel One features Wendy Sherman and David Cohen. Panel Two features Gary Samore, olli Heinonen and Michael Singh. Tues. July 29 at 10:00 am. http://1.usa.gov/1pSzZhb

--“Iran Nuclear Negotiations: From Extension to Final Agreement?” Hearing of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. Testimony from Wendy Sherman and David Cohen. http://1.usa.gov/1nC8jyk

--“Hiroshima Peace Commemoration.” Sponsored by the DC Hiroshima-Nagasaki Peace Committee. August 5 at 6:30 at the Martin Luther King, Jr. Memorial, 1964 Independence Ave., SW, Washington.

--“The Nuclear Zero Lawsuits: Why the Tiny Marshall Islands Took on the Nuclear Nine.” Discussion with Rick Wayman, Neisen Laukon, and Erica Fein. August 6 from 3:00 to 4:00. Registration for online webinar available here. http://bit.ly/1k8nf8p