New Partisan Push to Throw a Wrench Into Iran Negotiations

July 24, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Torpedo - “U.S. Republican lawmakers introduced legislation on Wednesday that would force President Barack Obama to submit quickly to Congress any comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran and give lawmakers the chance to reject the deal and reimpose sanctions,” writes Patricia Zengerle in Reuters.“The measure would give Obama three days after conclusion of a final agreement with Iran to submit the deal to Congress. Lawmakers would then have 15 days to review it and hold hearings, and then another 15 days to introduce a ‘resolution of disapproval,’ which, if passed, would re-impose any sanctions on Iran that had been lifted.”

--“The measure is unlikely to come to a vote in the Senate, where Obama's fellow Democrats who control a majority of the seats have said it would be inappropriate to pass legislation that would risk disrupting the Iran talks while they continue.” Read the full article here. http://reut.rs/1sXPIQZ

--The bill is sponsored by Sens. Corker (R-TN), Graham (R-SC), Rubio (R-FL), Risch (R-ID) and McCain (R-AZ). Statements from the Senators and a summary of the bill available here. http://1.usa.gov/1pHLeZG

National security before politics - “At every critical moment along the diplomatic path to a resolution of Iran’s nuclear program, vocal members of Congress have threatened to impose new sanctions that could torpedo the process,” writes John King in Roll Call. While the effectiveness and extension of talks “should be hailed as a victory for the United States, this belligerent, vocal minority continues to threaten the resolution of this decades-long, vexing foreign policy problem.”

--“The real question is what these members want. If they, like the administration and the leaders of the world, want to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, they are acting directly against that interest. It is abundantly clear that these initiatives will only impede and possibly derail a final, long-term deal to curb Iran’s development a nuclear program.”

--“Mainstream politicians and the American people have made it clear that they prefer a diplomatic solution and have very little appetite for yet another military engagement overseas. Hardliners in Congress must stop demanding a pie in the sky long-term deal that very few experts, pundits, or analysts see as remotely possible. Instead, they need to act responsibly to preserve a critical U.S. national security interest.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1lzSnbR

Tweet - @cirincione: Political leaders in Iran and US want nuclear deal to work bit.ly/1tBvJ8c

Small nuclear war, big nuclear winter - “A new assessment warns that the deadly climatic effects of a regional nuclear war would last longer than previously predicted,” Global Security Newswire reports. “We calculate impacts on surface climate persisting significantly longer than previous studies," states the analysis, prepared by researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Rutgers University and the University of Colorado at Boulder.

--“The 16-page report examines likely global impacts from an Indian-Pakistani nuclear conflict, and argues that the world's climate would still show damage 26 years afterward. An exchange of 100 ‘small,’ 15-kiloton nuclear warheads by the South Asian rivals would cloak the Earth in black-carbon particles, reducing worldwide temperatures to their lowest point in the last millennium, the document states. The temperature drop would cause circulation in the atmosphere to also plummet, trapping the black carbon high above the planet's surface for a longer period than anticipated by previous studies, the authors contended.”

--“The combined cooling and enhanced [ultraviolet radiation] would put significant pressures on global food supplies and could trigger a global nuclear famine," the assessment warns. "Knowledge of the impacts of 100 small nuclear weapons should motivate the elimination of more than 17,000 nuclear weapons that exist today." Full story here. http://bit.ly/1ohqn1s

--Full report: “Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict” by Michael J. Mills, Owen B. Toon, Julia Lee-Taylor, and Alan Robock in Earth’s Future. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1rdrkqx

Tweet - @WarOnTheRocks: Here's what's wrong with using 'breakout capacity' as the sole metric of a good deal with Iran: http://bit.ly/1rOcNmh

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: Dollars for fuel plates: How the Iran nuclear talks were kept alive. By @julianborger http://bit.ly/1p497M9

Plane parts - “U.S. planemaker Boeing (BA.N) has disclosed an agreement with Iran to provide airplane parts, relaxing a three-decade freeze in ties as part of a broader package of sanctions relief,” writes Tim Hepher in Reuters. “The agreement sets out general terms and conditions for the ‘potential sale of certain goods and services related to the safety of flight.’” Full story here. http://reut.rs/1nvY7HI

New plans - “Myanmar announced on Monday that it intends to build an atomic reactor to support civilian scientific research,” Global Security Newswire reports. “We need a nuclear reactor for research use as it is very useful in various fields, such as health, agriculture and livestock breeding,” Burmese Science and Technology Union Minister Ko Ko Oo said in remarks to lawmakers. “The reactor would not be built until Myanmar first acquires the necessary skills to safely operate it, according to the government figure.”

--“The Southeast Asian country previously came under suspicion by some independent experts and foreign governments that it was illicitly collaborating with North Korea to create the rudiments of a nuclear arms program. Since coming to power in 2011, the nominally civilian-run government in Naypyidaw has worked to dispel those concerns. In 2013, Myanmar acceded to the U.N. nuclear watchdog's Additional Protocol, which permits more intrusive and snap IAEA inspections of declared and suspected atomic facilities.” Read the full report here. http://bit.ly/1rxULFX

Confirmed - “The U.S. Senate on Wednesday confirmed Madelyn Creedon to become the No. 2 official at the National Nuclear Security Administration,” reports Rachel Oswald for Global Security Newswire. “As NNSA principal deputy administrator, Creedon will work directly under Energy Undersecretary for Nuclear Security Frank Klotz, according to an agency press release. She will assist in the management of the U.S. atomic weapons complex and work on Energy policy initiatives in support of the Obama administration's nuclear nonproliferation goals.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1sXV1Qv

Aegis construction - “Japan will soon begin constructing two more Aegis antimissile ships in response to North Korea’s recent missile tests,” Global Security Newswire reports. “Japan’s plans to bolster its sea-based capability to shoot down launched ballistic missiles comes as North Korea in recent months has carried out an unusually high number of ballistic-missile tests, as well as numerous rocket and munitions trial firings.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1pLAlpC

CTBT battle - “The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) remains a key element of unfinished business in the nuclear age,” writes Tahir Nazir for The Diplomat. “As a growing number of governments and decision makers along with civil society put forward ideas to move the world toward abolishing nuclear weapons, much can be learned from how the CTBT was fought for, opposed, and finally negotiated between 1994 and 1996, when it was adopted by the U.N. General Assembly.”

--“The Treaty’s relevance and significance was underscored first in 1998 with nuclear tests carried out first by India and then Pakistan, and then again more recently when the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) conducted its own tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013. Nearly two decades have elapsed since the treaty was opened for signature and yet its entry into force has not been achieved, the consequence of political and geo-strategic obstacles.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1ofHsZL

Quick-hits:

--“Uranium Processing Facility team signs partnering agreement” in Oak Ridge Today. http://bit.ly/1qCl6ET

--“A Closer Look at the CBO’s Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) System Cost Figures” in Mostly Missile Defense. http://bit.ly/1Abcx5E

Events:

--“Nuclear Politics on the Korean Peninsula.” Discussion with seven speakers. July 28 from 3:00 to 5:15 at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://ceip.org/1sTSpjA

--“Hiroshima Peace Commemoration.” Sponsored by the DC Hiroshima-Nagasaki Peace Committee. August 5 at 6:30 at the Martin Luther King, Jr. Memorial, 1964 Independence Ave., SW, Washington.

--“The Nuclear Zero Lawsuits: Why the Tiny Marshall Islands Took on the Nuclear Nine.” Discussion with Rick Wayman, Neisen Laukon, and Erica Fein. August 6 from 3:00 to 4:00. Registration for online webinar available here. http://bit.ly/1k8nf8p