Special Edition: Iran Negotiations Extended and What it Means

On the radar: Gone til November; President Obama outlines opportunity; Secretary Kerry outlines parameters of deal; Experts support extension; Reactions from the Hill; Editorial board roundup; and Resources to help make sense of it all.

July 19, 2014 | Edited by Ben Loehrke and Geoff Wilson

Extended to November - “Diplomats from Iran and five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) have reached an agreement to extend the Iran nuclear deal talks for four more months, diplomats said [in Vienna] late on July 18,” writes Laura Rozen for Al Monitor. “Diplomats expect the extension terms to be hashed out in the coming day or two, even as the gaps that have prevented a comprehensive deal from yet being reached remain daunting.”

--”The main obstacle to a final deal being clinched this week after over two weeks of nonstop talks concerns wide gaps over the position between Iran and the six world powers over what should be the size of Iran’s enrichment capacity in a final deal, and what the duration of that deal should be.” Full report here. http://bit.ly/1mqUEFL

President Obama - “Over the past six months, our diplomats have engaged in intensive negotiations with Iran to reach that goal. Our negotiators have made progress in some areas and, while real gaps remain, there is a credible prospect for a comprehensive deal. Because of this – and because Iran has upheld its commitments under the initial accord – we agreed today to extend the Joint Plan of Action to November 24. This extension will allow us to continue the negotiations while ensuring that the progress of Iran’s nuclear program remains halted during the negotiations.”

--“Going forward, we have an opportunity to achieve a lasting, diplomatic solution that will resolve one of the most pressing national security issues of our time. We will not accept anything less than a comprehensive resolution that meets our objectives, which is why it is necessary for negotiations to continue. By moving forward, we will be able to preserve international unity, continue to halt the progress of Iran’s nuclear program, and pursue a comprehensive resolution that is coming into shape.” Read the full statement from the White House here. http://1.usa.gov/1pnAWOc

Secretary Kerry - “We have decided – along with the EU, our P5+1 partners, and Iran – to extend the Joint Plan of Action until November 24, exactly one year since we finalized the first step agreement in Geneva… Under this short extension, all parties have committed to upholding their obligations in the Joint Plan of Action… In addition, Iran has committed to take further nuclear-related steps... [including] a continued cap on the amount of 5 percent enriched uranium hexafluoride and a commitment to convert any material over that amount into oxide… In return, we will continue to suspend the sanctions we agreed to under the JPOA and will allow Iran access to $2.8 billion dollars of its restricted assets, the four-month prorated amount of the original JPOA commitment.”

--“One year ago, few would have predicted that Iran would have kept all its commitments under a first step nuclear agreement, and that we would be actively negotiating a long-term comprehensive agreement. Now we have four additional months to determine the next miles of this difficult diplomatic journey. Let’s all commit to seize this moment, and to use the additional time to make the fundamental choices necessary to conclude a comprehensive agreement that makes the entire world a safer place.” Read Secretary Kerry’s full statement here. http://1.usa.gov/1thKWv1

Expert Reactions

--“The US and its partners are on the verge of solving one of the world’s thorniest nuclear problems. We have the opportunity to eliminate a nuclear threat without putting troops in harm’s way. Now’s not the time to pack up and go home… Diplomatic efforts have made more progress on Iran’s nuclear program in the last six months than we have in the past 35 years. The finish line is within our sights. It’s time to let diplomacy work.” Read the full statement from Ploughshares Fund’s President Joe Cirincione here. http://bit.ly/1p450zS

--“It is our assessment that a comprehensive agreement to ensure that Iran's nuclear program is entirely peaceful is still within reach if both sides remain focused and if both sides engage in creative, innovative, and smart diplomacy… At this critical stage, lawmakers in Washington need to support the administration's ongoing efforts at reaching a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear puzzle. Congress should refrain from actions, such as pursuing new sanctions legislation against Iran, that would undermine the chance for an agreement that would reduce Iran's nuclear capacity and provide the additional transparency to guard against an illicit dash for nuclear weapons… Those who argue that there should be no more time for diplomacy, or otherwise seek to block an effective agreement, have a responsibility to present a viable alternative.” Full statement from Daryl Kimball, Executive Director of the Arms Control Association, here. http://bit.ly/1nIDXWw

--“For those that believe a diplomatic solution is better than a war, this extension is critically important. Extending the talks will keep the United States and Iran on the diplomatic track instead of the path to war… Six months of intense negotiations may not have been quite enough to overcome thirty years of enmity between Iran and the U.S., but we are closer than ever to a historic agreement. Now is not the time to give up and return to the path of escalation towards war, it is time to double down on diplomacy to achieve a durable, peaceful solution.” Full statement from Dr. Trita Parsi, President of NIAC, here. http://bit.ly/1n3xOZj

Tweet - @Cirincione: Congress should follow Reagan's lead on negotiating with our adversaries, as we extend talks with Iran. via @usatoday http://usat.ly/UhSAcu

How this plays out - “The Israeli government, which fears that Iran will build a bomb and was deeply skeptical of the interim agreement that began the talks, has told the Obama administration that it favors an extension of the deadline,” writes Paul Richter. In terms of domestic U.S. politics, “By setting the deadline in November, the deal assures that when the final agreement is reached, the Democrats will remain in control of the Senate, even if the Republicans have won a midterm victory. That is likely to give President Obama more leeway to begin suspending sanctions as implementation of the deal gets underway. Republicans have been more reluctant to lift the economic penalties.” Full report in the Los Angeles Times. http://lat.ms/1mqIe0x

Tweet - @julianborger: Four months for Iran and West to get over their competing nuclear fixations. My take on #IranTalksVienna http://bit.ly/1p497M9

Reactions from the Hill

--“Today’s agreement to keep negotiating an end to Iran's nuclear weapons program will permit the Administration to continue its two-track approach to dismantling Iran's nuclear weapons capability and ensuring robust and aggressive verification of any agreement,” said Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD). http://1.usa.gov/1qQNZbY

--“I strongly support an extension of these talks because a diplomatic agreement is far better than any alternative...Clearly there is momentum toward an agreement and we have a responsibility to see it through—as diplomacy must be the preferred course of action,” said Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA). http://1.usa.gov/1u0VOlb

--“Progressive Caucus Calls on Congress to Let Diplomacy Work on Iran Nuclear Deal” Statements from Reps. Raúl M. Grijalva (D-AZ) and Keith Ellison (D-MN), along with Reps. Barbara Lee (D-CA), Jim Moran (D-VA), John Conyers (D-MI) and Lloyd Doggett (D-TX). http://1.usa.gov/1qQRrDs

--“With a disappointing beginning negotiating position that included a built-in extension, we all knew this was coming...In spite of that, every diplomatic effort should be pursued vigorously to reach an acceptable conclusion and prevent a nuclear-armed Iran. I urge the administration to make it clear there will be no more extensions, which would only further diminish our leverage,” said Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN). http://1.usa.gov/1tfW2AG

--“It looks like the Iranians won extra time with a good cop-bad cop routine,” said Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee Ed Royce (R-CA). http://1.usa.gov/1qPrTXv

--“We can't let Iran buy more time to make a nuclear bomb…It’s time for expanded non-military pressure to back up our diplomatic outreach to Iran,” said Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL). http://1.usa.gov/1thXqCK

Editorials

--“Don’t worry about the deadline and keep talking with Iran” by the Los Angeles Times. http://lat.ms/Wmy2kK

--“Keep Negotiating on Iran’s Nukes” by The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/UhBKKu

--“Keep Talking to Iran” from Bloomberg. http://bv.ms/1naCldY

Iran Resources

Need some context for better understanding the Iran talks and the path forward? Below is a list of key expert and official resources.

Primers

--“Background and Status of Iran’s Nuclear Program” from the Arms Control Association. http://bit.ly/1zCaBD8

--“A Solution for the Iranian Uranium-Enrichment Puzzle” by Daryl Kimball in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/TXahgY

--“Five myths about Iran’s nuclear program” by Ariane Tabatabai in The Boston Globe. http://bit.ly/1jtZyam

About Breakout

--“The Trouble with ‘Breakout Capacity’” by Greg Thielmann and Robert Wright in Slate. http://slate.me/1rbjOgg

--“Breakout, Shmeakout: The Wrong Way to Assess a Nuclear Deal with Iran” by Paul Pillar in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1ksEuvK

--“The Problem with Stopwatches and Centrifuges” by Jeffrey Lewis in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1nnwrUp

Regional Perspective

--“How a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could help save Iraq” by Ryan Crocker, William Luers, and Thomas Pickering in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/VYIXAA

Official Docs

--“Summary of Technical Understandings Related to the Implementation of the Joint Plan of Action of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Nuclear Program” from the White House. http://1.usa.gov/Lmgujd