Modernization Epidemic, Slow Reductions Present Challenge to NPT

On the radar: Everybody is upgrading their nukes; Businesses brace for Iran deal; Sec. Tim Howard; Positioning ahead of negotiations; Zarif on YouTube; India’s AP, new uranium plant; and Bill Gates’ nuclear wish.

July 2, 2014 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Perpetual arsenals? - “The slowing of nuclear reductions combined with a dynamic technological nuclear arms race present a particular challenge to the NPT community,” write Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The U.S. and Russia, holding more than 93% of all global nuclear weapons, have slowed their reductions to a modest pace. Other nuclear powers have held their arsenals at a steady size or increased them slightly.

--”All the nuclear-armed state have ambitious nuclear weapon modernization programs in progress that appear intended to prolong the nuclear era indefinitely. New or improved nuclear weapon programs underway worldwide include at least 27 ballistic missiles, nine cruise missiles, eight naval vessels, five bombers, eight warheads, and eight weapons factories.”

--This could present a challenge next May when the parties to the 2015 Review Conference to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty “will have to address whether extending the nuclear arsenals in perpetuity is consistent with the obligations under NPT’s Article VI and the overall purpose of the treaty.” Read the full analysis, including a list of systems global nuclear powers plan to upgrade. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1rjcfqG

Example A) - “The U.K. Is Fine With Its Fleet of Nuclear Subs, Thank You Very Much” by Elaine Grossman for Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/1qyf8Uw

Example B) - Tweets @SchwartzCNS: Great infographic: NNSA Projects: A True and Cautionary Tale of Underestimating and Overspending (via @ananuclear) http://t.co/kfQsiJua6H

Market for a deal - “As talks between Iran and six major powers on limiting its nuclear program enter the final stages of diplomacy this week in Vienna ahead of a July 20 deadline, global companies are fact-finding, meeting with potential Iranian partners and jockeying for position should an end to sanctions open the isolated economy. They are drawn by what could become the largest market in the Middle East,” reports Jay Solomon for The Wall Street Journal.

--”A potential July agreement could lift sanctions on Tehran's central bank and reduce restrictions on the finance, energy and technology sectors. This could free Western companies to pursue investments in potentially high-growth industries that have been closed off for nearly a decade.” http://on.wsj.com/1rVqCPk

Editors’ note - Early Warning will be offline tomorrow as the editors take off for the 4th of July. We’ll return to our regular schedule on Monday. Have a safe and happy holiday.

World Cup - Reactions from around the wonk-sphere to the amazing USA-Belgium game yesterday:

--Tweets @MilesPomper: One more reason to take TNW out of Belgium I say. @CNSWolfsthal

--Tweets @drunkenpredator: We're shutting down the Missile Defense Agency and just moving Tim Howard to Alaska.

--”Tim Howard momentarily named Secretary of Defense on Wikipedia” by Evan Hilbert of CBS Sports. http://cbsprt.co/1z7yphQ

Less than a month to go - Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif traded public barbs ahead of the next and final round of nuclear negotiations, with each penning op-eds challenging the other side’s nuclear negotiators to get serious about seizing the opportunity for a historic agreement. Simone Sturdee sums up their positioning for AFP.

--Analysts remain upbeat about the prospects for a deal as negotiators enter a critical phase of negotiations. "There is a lot of time left for diplomacy and a good comprehensive nuclear agreement is within reach, despite significant gaps between the two sides on core issues," said Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association to AFP. http://bit.ly/1riRag1

YouTube diplomacy - “We are willing to take concrete measures to guarantee that our nuclear program will always remain peaceful...My government remains committed to ending this unnecessary crisis by July 20th. I hope my counterparts are, too,” said Iranian FM Javad Zarif in a video posted on YouTube. http://youtu.be/16VIQ6LJCt8

Options for a deal - “In seeking to reach a comprehensive nuclear deal that prevents Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, we must keep in mind that success in the battle to block the overt path does not guarantee victory in ensuring that Iran does not acquire a bomb,” write Graham Allison and Oren Setter in Politico.

--The authors recommend a series of steps to block both Iran’s overt and covert paths to a bomb. Read the op-ed for a Maginot Line metaphor and some practical recommendations for negotiators. http://politi.co/1rjpUOq

Additional protocol - After a five year delay, India ratified the Additional Protocol (AP) to its International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards agreement. Implementing the AP will increase transparency and monitoring of India’s nuclear program at a time when India is greatly expanding its uranium enrichment capability. Robert Kelley and Karl Dewey of IHS Janes have the story. http://bit.ly/TCWign

Additional enrichment - “India’s New Uranium Enrichment Plant in Karnataka” by David Albright and Serena Kelleher-Vergantini of ISIS. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1vwn32s

Throw money at it - The Pentagon plans to send 1,100 airmen to its nuclear missile bases and spend an extra $350 million on the ICBM force over the next five years, said Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James on Monday. The influx of resources is part of the Air Force’s efforts to improve the missile force after a series of scandals rocked the force over the last year. The Wyoming Tribune Eagle has the story. http://bit.ly/1kedFeu

Bill Gates’ one wish - Microsoft co-founder and philanthropist Bill Gates visited Los Alamos National Laboratory earlier this week to give a talk and take a tour of the nuclear weapons facility, “which also does a wide-range of cutting-edge research across all fields, including an HIV vaccine, which the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation helps fund.”

--“Asked if he saw more areas for collaboration at Los Alamos, Gates drew laughter when he responded that his foundation doesn't fund weapons. But he said non-proliferation is ‘super important,’ and that if he thought it would work, he would write a check to eliminate weapons of mass destruction. That, he said, would be his ‘one wish of managing science.’” AP has the story. http://strib.mn/1riEW7b

Quick hits -

-- “MAP: All 17,000 Of The World's Nukes” from Business Insider. http://read.bi/1qPWULD

--“Comments on the Ground-Based Midcourse Missile Defense Test Record” by Laura Grego for All Things Nuclear. http://bit.ly/1lzftOT

--“Syria weapons moved onto US ship for destruction” by AP. http://wapo.st/1qQMZpd

--“North Korea through a Google Glass lens” by CNN. http://cnn.it/1iVOa74

Events:

--“Iran Sanctions: What the U.S. Cedes in a Nuclear Deal.” Discussion with Suzanne Maloney, Kenneth Katzman, and Elizabeth Rosenberg; moderated by Robin Wright. July 8 from 9:30 to 11:00 at the U.S. Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave., NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1lTst7K

--“Generation Prague: Innovation in International Security.” Annual Conference with Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), Sigrid Kaag, Frank Klotz, Rose Gottemoeller, Tom Countryman, Andrew Weber, and other. July 10 at the U.S. Department of State, East Auditorium, George Marshall Conference Center. More information and RSVP here. http://1.usa.gov/1nPgROR

--“Nuclear Centers of Excellence in Asia: Next Steps.” Discussion with Kazunori Hirao, Laura Holgate, and 11 other speakers. July 18 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 212-A/B Conference Room, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. RSVP by email to Robert Kim at rkim@csis.org