Zarif: No Better Time to Put an End to the Nuclear Crisis Than Now

June 13, 2014 | Edited by Geoff Wilson

Learn from the past - “The nuclear talks between Iran and the P5+1 powers have reached a critical stage,” writes Mohammad Javad Zarif in The Washington Post. “I am reasonably confident that by next month’s deadline, we can reach a comprehensive agreement that will assure the world that Iran’s nuclear program will remain exclusively peaceful. All that is required is a sober appreciation of the realities faced and a serious calculation of alternatives. Illusions have in the past led to missed opportunities and should not be allowed to ruin the real prospect of the historic deal before us.”

--“When current President Hassan Rouhani and I were leading the Iranian nuclear negotiating team almost 10 years ago just before the election of former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, I presented a proposal to our Western counterparts that contained an array of measures designed by independent, non-Iranian scientists to provide assurances that our nuclear program would remain forever peaceful. Prodded by the Bush administration, however, our counterparts demanded that we abstain from enrichment until at least 2015, effectively killing the chances of a deal. Their mistaking our constructive engagement for weakness, and opting for pressure and sanctions to gain concessions, led to a change in Iran’s position, both by the ballot box in the 2005 presidential election and the subsequent expansion of Iran’s peaceful nuclear activities.”

--“Today, President Rouhani and I are back at the negotiating table, and our commitment to constructive engagement has not changed. We are willing to provide assurances of the exclusively peaceful nature of our nuclear program. Our proposed measures are serious and would make a real difference. But we will not abandon or make a mockery of our technological advances or our scientists, nor would it be prudent or serve the interest of nuclear nonproliferation to expect us to do so… As we enter the crossroads of turning the interim nuclear deal into a comprehensive solution, I urge my counterparts to reciprocate our willingness to address concerns about our capabilities with appreciation of our demand for our rights, dignity and respect. Most of all, I urge them to refrain from allowing illusions to derail the march toward ending an unnecessary crisis and opening new horizons.” Read the full piece here. http://wapo.st/1qFTzhx

Timelines - “The Iranian government this week published its first detailed study of how long it estimates it would take its scientists and engineers to assemble a nuclear weapon, saying that with its current infrastructure, ‘the required time span is in years,’” reports David E. Sanger for The New York Times. “Iran described the estimate as entirely hypothetical, and it was clearly intended to allay fears that Iran has the ability to race for a bomb. Not surprisingly, American officials immediately disputed the conclusions, which contradicted both classified assessments by the United States government and many estimates by outside experts.”

--“The report was issued as Iranian officials were announcing that they had agreed to change the design of a heavy water reactor near the Iranian city of Arak in ways that would limit Iran’s ability to forge a second path to a bomb, using plutonium. American officials said they were studying the new proposal, but saw it as a hopeful sign.” Full report here. http://nyti.ms/1mRneAA

Posturing - “Failure to reach a deal on Iran's nuclear program would force Tehran to resume uranium enrichment activities, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was quoted as saying on Thursday. Speaking at a conference in Rome, Araqchi said he believed it was possible for Iran to reach an accord with world powers in time for a July 20 deadline, with drafting of final proposals due to begin next week.” Araqchi added that “Iran will return to 20 percent enrichment if a deal cannot be reached ... failure to reach a deal will be a disaster for everyone." Read the full report from Reuters here. http://reut.rs/1sbBKvj

Tweet - @rezamarashi: US-Iran strategic convergence. Don't blow it. MT @WSJ Iran deploys IRGC to fight al Qaeda-inspired militants in Iraq. http://on.wsj.com/1l5ja49

Asian BMD get backer - “Talks between the U.S. and Australia have given fresh momentum to Washington's plans to create a larger ballistic-missile defense shield for its allies in Asia,” reports Rob Taylor for The Wall Street Journal. “According to a U.S. statement overnight, discussions between President Barack Obamaand visiting Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott resulted in a commitment from Canberra for help in pushing forward with expanded missile-defense plans as a counter to North Korea.”

--“The talks also firmed up U.S. intentions to position more warships and aircraft in Australia, as regional concerns mount over instability in the South China Sea. Disputes between China and several of its neighbors have escalated in recent months, and the U.S. has worked to shore up its defense ties with its regional allies. China has its own ballistic-missile capability, and Beijing has long been skeptical of the growing U.S. missile-defense plans in Asia.” Full story here. http://on.wsj.com/1prz6zI

More money for MOX - Despite the fact that it has been slated for closure, “the mixed-oxide fuel fabrication facility at Savannah River Site could be on track to receive more money than President Obama’s budget request,” reports Meg Mirshak for The Augusta Chronicle. “U.S. House appropriators on Tuesday approved $345 million for the MOX plant, specifying the funds had to be used for construction activity and not to place the multibillion-dollar plutonium disposition facility on standby, as the president proposed. However, there is no guarantee that money will materialize.”

--“The Senate has not yet considered the 2015 spending bill for federal energy and water projects. Recent congressional action, however, has left political backers of the project optimistic about the future of MOX. In recent weeks, the House and Senate also acted in favor of MOX by authorizing spending for the project’s construction in the National Defense Authorization Act. The Senate Armed Services Committee last week increased funding for the plant by $145 million and directed the National Nuclear Security Administration, a semi-autonomous branch of the U.S. Energy Department which manages the MOX project, to continue construction. The plant has become increasingly expensive, leading the Energy Department to slow funding for the project. MOX construction received $320 million in fiscal 2013, $452.7 million in fiscal 2012 and $487.7 million under a 2013 continuing resolution.” Full report here. http://bit.ly/1ud1zXD

Nuclear working group - “In March 2013, the Senate voted down an amendment offered by Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) to cut $700,000 from their budget that was set-aside for the National Security Working Group (NSWG),” writes Nickolas Roth for the Federation of American Scientists. “What many did not realize at the time was that this relatively small and obscure proposed cut would have eliminated one of the last traces of the bipartisan Congressional approach to debating arms control.”

--“The NSWG first began as the Arms Control Observer Group, which helped to build support for arms control in the Senate. In recent years, there have been calls from both Democrats and Republicans to revive the Observer Group, but very little analysis of the role it played. Its history illustrates the stark contrast in the Senate’s attitude and approach to arms control issues during the mid- to late 1980s compared with the divide that exists today between the two parties.” Read the full piece on the history of the NSWG here. http://bit.ly/1kvJi2f

Don’t get sucked into Iraq again - “We never should have invaded Iraq,” writes Joe Cirincione in a piece for Defense One. “It would be folly to recommit United States forces to save an artificial Iraqi government and army that cannot stand on its own. Ten years ago, U.S. forces battled Sunni insurgents in the very same cities that are falling to anti-government fighters today. Hundreds of American lives were lost in the 2004 battles for Mosol, Fallujhah, Karbala, Ramadi, Tikrit, Najaf and Samarra. The U.S. spent tens of billions of dollars to train and equip an Iraqi army that was supposed to protect the government we formed to replace the deposed dictator, Saddam Hussein.”

--“There is not a quick fix to this problem. The hard truth is that, like the collapse of the Diem government in South Vietnam a generation ago, there is little we can do to prop up this government. As military expert Micha Zenko tweeted, ‘Unless the US has bombs that can install wisdom and leadership into PM Maliki, airstrikes in Iraq would be pointless.’ We may have to revisit then-Senator Joe Biden’s strategy from 2006 that the only way to stop the killing and salvage the situation was to scrap Iraq’s artificially-imposed boundaries and partition the country into three ethnic regions. Gen. Colin Powell famously invoked the ‘Pottery Barn rule’ about Iraq, but he got it slightly wrong. It is not, ‘You broke it; you own it,’ but ‘You broke it; you pay for it.’ We broke Iraq. We paid a huge price in lives, treasure and legitimacy. It is time to stop paying.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1nBi5jp

Commitments - Should the U.S. commit itself militarily to propping up governments in Iraq and Afghanistan indefinitely? Watch this segment from Rachel Maddow of MSNBC. http://on.msnbc.com/1hTI3Q1

Sanctions and football - “Last June, Iran and South Korea qualified for the 2014 World Cup within seconds of each other. Yet just a month out from the tournament, Korea had played 14 warm-up games while Iran had only managed to arrange one, a March defeat to Guinea -- hardly a major soccer power. The light schedule is not the product of choice. Rather, U.S.-led sanctions aimed at curtailing Iran's nuclear ambitions have taken their toll on the country's football program -- which is why the footy faithful are watching Iran's negotiations with the group of world powers known as the P5+1 with almost as much interest as the start of the big tournament itself.”

--“If Iran and the West can hash out a comprehensive nuclear agreement in the coming months, it will be great news for football fans, even if it's too late to boost the Iranian squad's prospects in this World Cup… Isolation from the international community has cost the Islamic Republic when it comes to the sport it cares about most… [and] The road has been tougher than it needed to be. The Iranian Football Federation (IFF), the body that oversees all football activity in the country, has struggled to collect funds owed to it by international organizations due to a ban on financial transactions that were part of a tightened sanctions imposed by the EU and the United States in February 2012, which included expelling Iranian financial institutions from SWIFT, a global international banking system.” Read the full article by John Duerden for Foreign Policy here. http://atfp.co/1va3tuu

Quick-hit:

--“Why higher Iran oil exports are not roiling nuclear deal” by Arshad Mohammed and Timothy Gardner for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1sbHohb

Events:

--“Ukraine, Deterrence in the 21st Century, and the Nuclear Weapons Budget.” Discussion with Mieke Eoyang, Benjamin Friedman, and Pete Sepp. June 16 at 10:00am at 340 Cannon House Office Building. RSVP by email to erosenkranz@pogo.org

--“India’s Nuclear Policy and Regional Stability.” Discussion with Michael Krepon, Lt. Gen. Vinay Shankar (ret.), Vice Adm. A.K. Singh (ret.), Joshua White, Vikram Singh, and Jayant Prasad. June 16 from 12:30 to 3:00 at the Stimson Center, 1111 19th St. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1s0k0Db

--“How to Unwind Iran Nuclear Sanctions.” Discussion with Kenneth Katzman and Cornelius Adebahr; moderated by Barbara Slavin. June 16 at 2:00 at The Atlantic Council, 1030 15th St. NW, 12th Floor (West Tower). RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1h9DpN2