Bridging Gaps Between Iran and P5+1 on Enrichment

June 10, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Need for compromise - “Iran and the P5+1 have made some real progress since [the start of the Joint Plan of Action], but they remain very far apart on the critical issue of enrichment,” writes Colin Kahl in Foreign Affairs. “The Obama administration is demanding that Iran substantially roll back its enrichment capacity…Iranian officials, in contrast, insist that the Islamic Republic’s enrichment infrastructure be maintained and even expanded by tens of thousands of additional centrifuges.” Kahl explains why Iran’s opening, maximalist position is a non-starter with the P5+1 and with political audiences in the U.S.

--“If all sides are open to compromise, there may be creative ways to bridge the enrichment divide, such as long-term international fuel guarantees, gradually lifting constraints on Iran’s program after a lengthy period of confidence building, or perhaps allowing a conditional expansion of Iranian enrichment capacity contingent on the emergence of actual (rather than hypothetical) energy needs. But whether there are six more weeks or six more months of negotiations, no final deal will materialize unless Iran steps back from its maximalist stance. If it refuses to compromise, the window for a peaceful, diplomatic solution will close, and the regime will have no one to blame but itself.” Full article here. http://fam.ag/SvapDV

The Princeton solution - “As American and Iranian officials meet June 9 in Geneva, a former spokesman for Iran’s nuclear negotiators, Seyyed Hossein Mousavian, and several physicists at Princeton are proposing a possible solution to the dispute over how many centrifuges Iran can retain under a long-term nuclear agreement,” writes Barbara Slavin in a report for Al-Monitor. “Their draft proposal … would permit Iran to transition from the rudimentary machines it currently employs to enrich uranium to more-advanced centrifuges over the course of five years. This would reduce the numbers of centrifuges Iran would require to meet the needs of even an expanded civilian reactor program, but it still raises concerns about Iran’s ability to ‘break out’ and produce fuel for nuclear weapons.”

--“To deal with these concerns, the authors — Mousavian, Alexander Glaser, Zia Mian and Frank von Hippel — suggest that Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany, the P5+1 nations, explore creating a multilateral uranium enrichment facility that could supply Iran and other countries in the region with nuclear fuel. Such an arrangement, they say, ‘could provide a long-term solution to the proliferation concerns raised by national enrichment plants in the Middle East and elsewhere.’” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1lkwHDs

--Full analysis: “Agreeing on Limits for Iran’s Centrifuge Program: A Two-Stage Strategy” by Glaser, Mian, Mousavian and von Hippel in Arms Control Today. http://bit.ly/TD70Eh

Iran talks update - “U.S. and Iranian officials are holding an extra round of meetings to revive momentum in the push for an accord on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program,” write Indira A.R. Lakshmanan and Kambiz Foroohar in Bloomberg. “The two sides will reconvene today after they met for five hours in Geneva yesterday. The bilateral sessions were needed because ‘we are a critical juncture in the talks’ and time is running short, State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf said in Washington. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said they were ‘held in a positive and constructive atmosphere.’” Full article here. http://bloom.bg/1oQyWxX

Tweet - @IranPrimer: .@CNSWolfsthal: #IranDeal must be able to outlast both #Obama and #Rouhani administrations, several years needed to regain confidence

Strategic bomber outlook - “U.S. Air Force Bomber Sustainment and Modernization: Background and Issues for Congress” by Jeremiah Gertler of the Congressional Research Service. June 4, 2014. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1kMuD7J

Overhauling the ICBM force - “The Air Force is in the ‘home stretch’ of an analysis of alternatives on the future of the ICBM force, said the head of plans and programs at Air Force Global Strike Command,” reports Marc V. Schanz for the Air Force Magazine. “The AOA, which is slated for completion by the end of the month, will emphasize affordability and modularity for any future Ground Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD), said Brig. Gen. Fred Stoss… [who] stressed the GBSD is not a follow-on missile, but a systematic approach to recapitalizing the existing ICBM force over the long term.”

--Stoss said that the “USAF plans to begin procuring Minuteman III guidance replacement sets beginning in Fiscal 2015 that will be modular and transferable in the event the Minuteman III is replaced.” He added that, “GBSD is not just a missile, it is the rocket motors, the guidance sets, the fuses, the command and control centers, and other aspects of the capability… It is all these things, that’s what this analysis is doing. It is charting a path for how to modernize the whole weapons system.” Read the full report here. http://bit.ly/UqQzvv

Accounting oversight - “A Japanese government insider said Tokyo was right to exclude roughly 1,410 pounds of mixed-oxide fuel from its 2012 and 2013 declarations to the International Atomic Energy Agency,” Global Security Newswire reports. ”A nonoperational reactor was storing the material, making its disclosure unnecessary, according to the Japan Atomic Energy Commission source. A one-time commission official, though, suggested the panel had omitted the material by mistake. The Japanese regulatory body ‘should make efforts to improve’ its oversight, former commission vice chairman Tatsujiro Suzuki argued.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1o9ABTe

Japan’s plutonium - “Analysis of the public records of the Japan Atomic Energy Commission and information submitted to IAEA shows that in 1999-2013, Japan has received a cumulative 4,409 kg of plutonium in MOX fuel,” writes Pavel Podvig for the International Panel on Fissile Materials. Get the full report here. http://bit.ly/1mCmcsa

Nuclear secession - “A Scottish vote to secede from Britain could delay plans to dismantle an array of nuclear-powered submarines,” Global Security Newswire reports. “The current government schedule envisions beginning the decommissioning of London's four-vessel Vanguard-class fleet, which is armed with Trident missiles, in the 2020s.”

--“While the dockyard at Devonport, England, is expected to take on much of the work, there is limited space at the shipyard which means the Rosyth shipyard on the Firth of Forth in Scotland would likely be eyed to handle some of the workload. The locally governing Scottish National Party has vowed to have all Vanguard vessels and their Trident ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads evicted from an independent Scotland by 2020. That schedule would make it unlikely that an independent Scottish government would allow Vanguard vessels to be transferred from their current base at Faslane to Rosyth to wait for dismantlement work to begin.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1nvu3Lk

Events:

--“PONI Breakfast with Vahid Majidi.” June 11 from 9:00-10:30 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW., 2nd floor. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1jfnHvp

--“Regional Implications of a Nuclear Deal with Iran.” Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing with Dennis Ross, Scott Modell, and Frederick Kagan. June 12 at 10:00 at 419 Senate Office Building. Webcast available here. http://1.usa.gov/SgNUSW

--“Securing Radiological Materials: Examining the Threat Next Door.” Senate Committee on Homeland Security hearing. June 12 at 10:30 at 342 Dirksen Senate Office Building. Webcast available here. http://1.usa.gov/1k0X5xr

--“War With Iran? Should the United States Use Military Force Against Iran if Nuclear Diplomacy Fails?” Debate with Georgetown University and University of Michigan students; comments by Colin Kahl. June 13 from 9:00-12:00 at the Willard Intercontinental Hotel, The Willard Room, 1401 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1gXWlOJ

--“Ukraine, Deterrence in the 21st Century, and the Nuclear Weapons Budget.” Discussion with Mieke Eoyang, Benjamin Friedman, and Pete Sepp. June 16 at 10:00am at 340 Cannon House Office Building. RSVP by email to erosenkranz@pogo.org

--“India’s Nuclear Policy and Regional Stability.” Discussion with Michael Krepon, Lt. Gen. Vinay Shankar (ret.), Vice Adm. A.K. Singh (ret.), Joshua White, Vikram Singh, and Jayant Prasad. June 16 from 12:30 to 3:00 at the Stimson Center, 1111 19th St. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1s0k0Db

--“How to Unwind Iran Nuclear Sanctions.” Discussion with Kenneth Katzman and Cornelius Adebahr; moderated by Barbara Slavin. June 16 at 2:00 at The Atlantic Council, 1030 15th St. NW, 12th Floor (West Tower). RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1h9DpN2