Tackling the Uranium Enrichment Question in the Iran Negotiations

May 13, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Addressing enrichment - “As Iran and six world powers meet this week in Vienna to begin drafting language to resolve their nuclear standoff, negotiators say they are finally confronting a crucial sticking point to a permanent agreement — the size and shape of the nuclear fuel production capability that Iran will be permitted to retain,” write David E. Sanger and Steven Erlanger in a piece for The New York Times. “It is a subject that, at least in public, the Obama administration steps around, acutely aware that Israel and members of Congress who are highly suspicious of the negotiations will say that Iran must be kept years from being able to develop a weapon, and that opponents of the deal in Tehran will argue that no restraints at all should be imposed.”

--“Both the Iranians and the Western powers have said their talks so far have been productive, with little of the drama, the ultimatums and the entrenched positions that have marked previous efforts. But until now, there has been no formal discussion of how much nuclear infrastructure the United States and its allies would demand that Iran dismantle in return for the gradual easing of sanctions.”

--“As Ms. Rice and Ms. Sherman have told American lawmakers and outside experts, the key is to leave Iran with a face-saving nuclear infrastructure that would allow its clerics and the nation’s Revolutionary Guards commanders the ability to argue that they have not given up the right to produce nuclear fuel, but with a small enough capability that the White House can overcome Congressional objections.” Read the full story here. http://nyti.ms/1sINVN2

Tweet - @KelseyDav: Iran, world powers gear up for fourth round of nuclear talks http://bit.ly/1spM5yH

Growing optimism - “Several core elements of agreement between Iran and the West have emerged in recent weeks, heightening optimism that a comprehensive deal can be reached by the July 20 deadline, according to U.S., Iranian and European officials involved in the diplomacy,” write Jay Solomon and Laurence Norman in The Wall Street Journal. “One of the key areas of agreement is the future of an Iranian plan to convert its heavy-water reactor in the city of Arak to produce significantly less weapons-grade plutonium, according to various officials. Iran also has begun to more substantively address evidence presented in parallel talks with the U.N's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, that it conducted research and testing to develop atomic bombs.” Read the full piece here. on.wsj.com/1hJDKkm

Possible military dimensions - “The U.N. nuclear watchdog and Iran began talks on Monday ahead of a deadline later this week for Tehran to provide information about the development of detonators that can be used to help set off an atomic device,” Reuters reports. “The Iran-IAEA meeting took place a day before the Islamic Republic and six world powers on Tuesday start, also in the Austrian capital, a new round of negotiations on a broad diplomatic settlement of the decade-old nuclear dispute.” Read the full report here. http://reut.rs/1jWS6Sv

Focus on a realistic deal - “The United States and its allies are now preparing for the home stretch in their nuclear negotiations with Iran. And, as they approach the finish line, it will be critical for insightful voices to help the Obama administration parse through difficult issues that remain on the negotiating table,” write Reza Marashi and Trita Parsi for CNN. “Kenneth Pollack – a top Clinton administration official and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution – recently took to the pages of the New York Times to do exactly that. He correctly notes in his op-ed that a comprehensive deal verifiably ensuring the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program will be enormously beneficial. He rightly points out three critical issues that will make or break our negotiations with Iran: inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities; creating mechanisms to ensure Iran doesn't cheat; and the duration of a final deal. However, we believe the contours recommended in his op-ed would risk creating such an imbalance in the deal that it would incentivize the Iranians to cheat, and by that turn a diplomatic win into an embarrassing fiasco.”

--“On the issue of intrusive inspections, we agree: For a mutually-agreed upon time period, any final nuclear deal with Iran will have to include one of the most comprehensive inspections regime in history. But pushing for the type of inspections we had in Iraq – a constant, indefinite and undefined International Atomic Energy Agency presence – doesn't pass the feasibility litmus test and contradicts what has already been agreed upon in November: Once the final deal expires and Iran has successfully alleviated the international community's concerns about its program, Tehran will become a normal Non-proliferation Treaty state, meaning there will be no limitations imposed on its nuclear program beyond what all other NPT states have to accept. Indefinitely holding Iran to standards that apply to no other NPT signatories is a recipe for diplomatic failure because it violates the November agreement… Overplaying our hand risks squandering the very valuable diplomatic advances that have been achieved. Still, whatever our differences with Ken, his op-ed has launched a much-needed discussion on the critical components of a comprehensive nuclear deal. We look forward to continuing this dialogue.” Read the full piece here. cnn.it/1g3ra43

US nuclear drill - “U.S. Strategic Command this week is conducting a massive nuclear arms drill designed to ‘deter and detect strategic attacks’ on the United States and allies,” reports Global Security Newswire. “A Sunday press release announcing the May 12-16 ‘Global Lightning’ exercise explicitly noted that the event's timing is ‘unrelated to real-world events.’ Observers of ongoing East-West tensions will note, however, that Russia on Thursday conducted its own large-scale nuclear response drill under the supervision of President Vladimir Putin. That exercise was widely promoted in Russian media and included the test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile and submarine-fired ballistic missiles.” As many as 10 B-52 heavy bombers and six B-2 bombers are slated to take part in the nuclear deterrence exercise. Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1jWNz2q

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: Nice collection of quotes from @BelferCenter on the importance of nuclear security and the impact of budget cuts http://bit.ly/1mUPmVc

Self sabotage - “The State Department's top arms control official is stressing that it is in the best interests of the United States to continue doing nuclear security work in Russia -- even as the Ukraine crisis rages,” writes Douglas Guarino in Global Security Newswire. “The Republican-led House Armed Services Committee last week approved legislative language that would prevent the U.S. Energy Department from using fiscal 2015 funds ‘for any contract, cooperation, or transfer of technology’ between the United States and Russia until the crisis has been resolved. The panel included the language in its version of the annual defense authorization bill, which it passed last week. Under Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller suggested on Friday that such a prohibition would be tantamount to shooting ‘ourselves in the foot,’ however.” Said Gottemoeller, “At the heart of our rationale for continuing this work’ is that it is ‘manifestly in the national interest of the United States to continue … minimizing the danger that fissile materials [could] fall into the hands of terrorists.” Read the full piece here. bit.ly/1oopTHp

Nasty stuff - “Iridium-192 is nasty stuff -- the isotope is so radioactive that if it comes into contact with the skin the only remedy is often amputation,” writes Adam Pasick for Global Security Newswire. “It can cause harm, or even death, from up to 30 meters away. Yet when a company in the Chinese city of Nanjing misplaced a soybean-sized piece of the stuff on May 7, it neglected to tell the public for 36 hours.”

--“The radioactive pellet eventually turned up in a grassy area a kilometer from its original location, a construction project owned by state-run oil company Sinopec. The Tianjin Hongdi Engineering Development Company was using the isotope to check for flaws in metal components. The iridium was eventually found on May 9 in a plastic bag, indicating that it had been handled by someone, perhaps looking for scrap materials to salvage… The loss or theft of dangerous radioactive isotopes happens distressingly often. Thieves stole a container full of cobalt-60 in Mexico last year, likely burning or killing themselves in the process, and a container of iridium-192 was lost en route to Kathmandu, Nepal, on May 1.” Full report here. http://bit.ly/QEyK9l

Underwater test - “India has revealed that it secretly conducted the maiden test-firing of an intermediate-range ballistic missile from an underwater platform in March,” Global Security Newswire reports. “The two-stage K-4 was successfully tested to its full range of approximately 1,860 miles from a pontoon about 100 feet below the surface in waters off the Visakhapatnam coast.” Get the full story here. bit.ly/1lsDGcD

Spreading technology - “Analysts warn that China's development of new cruise missiles raises the risk of its technology spreading to other countries,” writes Diane Barnes in Global Security Newswire. “If China's past record of proliferating ballistic missiles and technology is any indication of its intentions vis-à-vis cruise missile transfers, the consequences could be highly disruptive for the nonproliferation regime,” according to academics Andrew Ericson and Jingdong Yuan. Full article here. bit.ly/1qzwLDU

Report - “Truman Security Briefing Book, 6th Edition” from the Truman Security Project. May 2014. bit.ly/1lhQq2U

Events:

--“New Technologies on the Arms Control Front.” Discussion with Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Rose Gottemoeller. May 13 at 5:00 at the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Auditorium, second floor, 1200 New York Ave. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1juJm5O

--“The Role of Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Responding to the Crisis in Crimea.” Discussion /with Peter Doran and Kingston Reif. May 19 from 6:00 to 8:00 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1iUUxA6