Nuclear Weapons Projects Plagued with Cost Overruns

May 6, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Nuclear budget creep - “There is a budget crisis, but the truth is we’re still planning to spend tens of billions of dollars to eliminate plutonium from thousands of dismantled, surplus nuclear weapons built during the Cold War,” writes Walter Pincus in The Washington Post. “Not to worry. We also are spending hundreds of billions on building newer nuclear warheads and bombs, and 21st-century submarines, bombers and intercontinental ballistic missiles to keep more than 1,000 nuclear weapons at the ready. One thing that building and destroying the weapons have in common: Their cost overruns are way beyond original estimates.”

--Plutonium and uranium facility costs are exploding. The original $3.8 billion estimate to construct the MOX plutonium conversion plant in South Carolina grew to “$4.8 billion by 2008 and to $7.7 billion by 2012,” Pincus says. “Also, annual operating costs of more than $500 million were said to be underestimated, driving total cost to more than $31 billion.” A similar situation exists with the construction of a uranium facility at Oak Ridge, TN. Originally estimated to cost $100 million, the “next thing we know it’s $2 billion. . . Then it’s $5 billion, and then it’s $6 billion, then it might be $10 billion,” says Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN).

--“With all these complaints about wasted spending in domestic programs that help the less fortunate, why aren’t the excessive costs of nuclear weapons activities being debated in Congress?” asks Pincus. Read the full piece here. http://wapo.st/RkfXBg

Tweet - @ACapaccio: Bomber-Plane Budget by U.S. Air Force Projected to Double. via @BloombergNews http://bloom.bg/1g57iZe

Second track with Iran making progress - IAEA officials “held talks in Tehran on Monday before visits to two uranium sites, as Iran acts to implement a series of steps aimed at providing transparency on its nuclear research by a mid-May deadline,” Mehrdad Balali and Fredrik Dahl report for Reuters.

--“As part of seven measures Iran has agreed to take by May 15, IAEA inspectors will on Monday and Tuesday go to the Saghand uranium mine in central Iran and to the Ardakan ore processing plant… IAEA access to such sites is considered important, because the uranium they produce, once refined, can be used in both nuclear power plants and, after further processing, nuclear bombs… The head of the IAEA delegation, Massimo Aparo, will also discuss with Iranian nuclear officials how the U.N. agency would monitor a planned heavy-water reactor near the town of Arak, also among the seven steps, the IRNA news agency reported.” Read the full report here. http://reut.rs/1omIOj3

Negotiating the Rubik’s Cube - “There’s no one single formula for a nuclear deal with Iran. The United States compares negotiations to solving Rubik’s Cube™, because so many pieces are involved—and moving one moves all the others. (The world’s most popular puzzle has 43 quintillion permutations to solve it so all the colors match on the six faces.)” Read the full write up of the issues faced in negotiating the Iran deal, from The Iran Primer here. http://bit.ly/1qar7YN

The ideal deal - “The United States and its allies have finally begun to work out the terms of a nuclear deal with Iran,” writes Kenneth M. Pollack in The New York Times. “That’s hopeful because an agreement that forecloses Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons would be enormously beneficial.”

--“Washington seems focused on limiting the numbers and types of centrifuges that Iran would be allowed to possess, as well as the quantities and qualities of uranium it would be allowed to keep. But those issues are not the keys to getting the best deal with Iran. They are important, but they should not be the White House’s highest priority. Instead, the Obama administration should focus on three other factors: conducting intrusive inspections, designing a mechanism to easily reimpose sanctions if Iran cheats, and extending the duration of the agreement.”

--“Iran’s leaders have already demonstrated that they are willing to sacrifice principles for practical benefits. There is no reason to believe that they cannot be convinced to do the same in a comprehensive agreement. Intrusive inspections coupled with sanctions suspension will grant them the economic revival, even prosperity, that they crave while giving America and its allies the greatest assurance that a future Iranian leadership won’t resume a prohibited weapons program.” Read the full piece here. http://nyti.ms/1nlfsBG

Tweet - @plough_shares: Generation Y has the task of shaping a future where nuclear war is no longer on the table. http://bit.ly/1huEzx7

Additional protection - “The U.S. will deploy two additional ballistic missile defense destroyers to Japan by 2017 as part of an effort to bolster protection from North Korean missile threats, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said Sunday. Speaking to at a news conference following a meeting with Japan Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera, Hagel said they discussed the threat posed by Pyongyang. He said the two ships are in response to North Korea’s “pattern of provocative and destabilizing actions” that violate U.N. resolutions and also will provide more protection to the U.S. from those threats.” Lolita Baldor has the story in The Washington Times. http://bit.ly/1fPNkXW

Unbecoming behavior - “The Navy admiral fired last fall as the No. 2 commander of U.S. nuclear forces was given a letter of reprimand Monday and ordered to forfeit $4,000 in pay but will be allowed to remain on duty as a Navy staff officer,” reports Robert Burns for AP. “In a brief statement, the Navy said a superior officer determined that Rear Adm. Timothy Giardina's involvement in a casino gambling case violated the Uniform Code of Military Justice on two counts of conduct unbecoming an officer and a gentleman. The first count involved Giardina lying to an investigator and the second related to his failure to surrender — and his subsequent use of — counterfeit poker chips that he claimed he had found at the casino, the Navy said. Giardina accepted the so-called non-judicial punishment from Adm. Bill Gortney rather than exercising his option to challenge it by requesting a court martial.”

--Giardina “is the second senior officer with responsibility for nuclear weapons to be fired in recent months; the other was Air Force Maj. Gen. Michael Carey, who was commander of the land-based nuclear missile corps when he was relieved of duty last October after an alcohol-fueled episode in Russia last July.” Full article here. http://abcn.ws/1sg3j3h

Second chances - “Roughly one-third of the nuclear-missile officers who were implicated in a test-cheating scandal at a Montana base are now back in training,” Global Security Newswire reports. “20th Air Force head Maj. Gen. Jack Weinstein told the Great Falls Tribune that each of the 91 so-called ‘missileers’ implicated in the cheating probe were assessed by their squadron heads to decide whether they should be permitted to resume training again. Not all of the airmen actively participated in the test-cheating; some knew of the misconduct but failed to report it. ‘The commander believes they should have another chance to show they have integrity,’ said Weinstein, whose division oversees all Air Force land-based Minuteman 3 missiles.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1huvcxH

Unclear picture - “Congressional auditors say the United States is giving an unclear picture of how quickly it is dismantling weapons removed from the nuclear arsenal,” reports Diane Barnes in Global Security Newswire. “The National Nuclear Security Administration set a fiscal 2022 deadline to disassemble all nuclear warheads retired before fiscal 2009, but its method for assessing compliance ‘is unclear and may be misleading,’ according to a report issued last week by the Government Accountability Office. The country plans to return roughly 9 percent of the retired warheads to active duty by fiscal 2022, said the congressional watchdog agency, citing a March 2013 dismantlement schedule from the U.S. atomic oversight organization. The United States had 4,804 nuclear warheads in its active stockpile last September, and ‘several thousand’ more weapons slated for dismantlement at that time, according to State Department figures released this week.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1lUTtls

WIPP leak examination - “U.S. officials are examining if radioactive-waste drums from Los Alamos could have caused a radiation release at a New Mexico underground storage plant,” Global Security Newswire reports. “An Energy Department statement raised the possibility that a chemical reaction in the containers may be to blame for a radioactive leak at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in February, the Associated Press reported late last week. Officials have yet to identify the source of the escaped particles, and the plant has remained closed.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1j7W5vJ

Unbalancing the equation - “Pakistan has upped the nuclear ante in South Asia by choosing to adopt tactical nuclear weapons,” writes Monika Chansoria in a piece for Foreign Policy. “Tactical nuclear weapons -- smaller bombs and short-range missiles that are designed to achieve more limited, or tactical, objectives, rather than be used against enemy cities, factories, and other large targets -- warrant a separate consideration in the realm of nuclear security. These weapons are inherently destabilizing because they lower the nuclear threshold, the point in a war in which nuclear weapons are brought into use. As such, they are straining South Asia's existing deterrence stability -- the idea that roughly equivalent nuclear capabilities will deter adversaries from using these weapons.” Read the full piece for an analysis of Pakistan’s posture and stability in South Asia. http://atfp.co/RkgwuS

No imminent test - “Newly detected digging at North Korea's nuclear test site suggests that another atomic blast is not imminent, according to 38 North. In an examination of commercial satellite photographs taken between April 25 and May 1 of the "West Portal" area of the Punggye-ri test site, 38 North image expert Nick Hansen notes that the Kim Jong Un regime appears to be "continuing and perhaps stepping up excavation activities resumed" late last month. In his Friday analysis, Hansen notes that were North Korea preparing to conduct another underground nuclear test in the immediate future, it would be clearing the entire site of personnel and equipment instead of opening a new phase of its tunnel expansion work.” Rachel Oswald has the story in Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/1lUOzos

Lawsuit dropped - “South Carolina state officials have dropped a lawsuit meant to force the U.S. government to keep spending money on a controversial project to convert bomb-grade plutonium into nuclear fuel,” Global Security Newswire reports. “The state filed the lawsuit last month after the Obama administration announced plans to put construction of the mixed-oxide conversion facility in South Carolina on hold while studying other -- potentially less costly -- options for disposing of excess plutonium left over from the Cold War. Energy Department officials said last week the ‘cold stand-by’ would not occur until fiscal 2015, which begins on Oct. 1, prompting the state to drop the lawsuit.”

--“Energy Department officials say the facility is 40 percent constructed and that the government would have to spend $25.1 billion more over the site's lifetime for it to complete its mission. A report the department released last week said that, alternatively, the plutonium could be down-blended and disposed for about $8.8 billion.” Get the full story here. http://bit.ly/1sfVGKc

Quick-hits:

--“IAEA Inspectors Commence Iran Visit Ahead of Nuclear Talks” by Ladane Nasseri in Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/1myyFyD

--“Russia Expects Progress in Iran Nuclear Talks Next Week” in Reuters. http://reut.rs/1myjoCg

--“Nuclear Modernization Briefings at the NPT Conference in New York” by Hans Kristensen in the FAS Strategic Security Blog. http://bit.ly/1sfXYZM

--“Mideast Talks Facilitator: ‘Divergent Views Persist’ on WMD-Free Zone” by Elaine Grossman in Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/Ro4Arw

--“Iran talks on track” editorial by The Toledo Blade. http://bit.ly/1kHlHMl

Events:

--“Godzilla: The Japanese Original.” Film screening. May 6 at 9:20pm at AFI Silver Theatre Cultural Center, 8633 Colesville Road, Silver Spring, MD. Screening information here. http://bit.ly/1kSU7yR

--“Governing Uranium: Security in the Front-End of the Fuel Cycle." Discussion with Cindy Vestergaard. May 7 from 1:30 to 3:00 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW, Washington. RSVP by email to PPP@CSIS.org

--“Nuclear Weapons Materials Gone Missing: What Does History Teach?” Discussion with Henry Sokolski, Charles Ferguson, Edwin Lyman, and Jodi Lieberman. May 8 from 12:30-2:00 at the Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th St. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1fJSynz

--“Preventing WMD Terrorism: A Status Report.” Discussion with Andrew Semmel, Michelle Cann, and and Miles Pomper. May 8 at 3:30 in 1539 Longworth House Office Building. RSVP by email to monica.herman@mail.house.gov

--“The Countdown Begins: All You Need to Know About an Iran Nuclear Deal.” Discussion with Robert Einhorn, Alireza Nader, and Joseph Cirincione. Moderated by Colin Kahl. May 13 from 9:30 to 11:00 at the U.S. Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave., NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1o6UYwo

--“New Technologies on the Arms Control Front.” Discussion with Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Rose Gottemoeller. May 13 at 5:00 at the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Auditorium, second floor, 1200 New York Ave. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1juJm5O

--“The Role of Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Responding to the Crisis in Crimea.” Discussion with Peter Doran and Kingston Reif. May 19 from 6:00 to 8:00 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1iUUxA6