NNSA to Pursue New Warhead Idea, Despite Criticism

April 17, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka

Sticking to plans - “The Obama administration is sticking to a plan to develop controversial new warheads for the U.S. nuclear arsenal, but opponents of the project are holding out hope that officials could still change course,” writes Douglas Guarino in Global Security Newswire. “When it rolled out its fiscal 2014 budget request last year, the administration included a 25-year plan that it said could ultimately reduce the number of warheads in the stockpile by creating weapons suited for multiple tasks. The first such warhead, to be called the ‘IW-1,’ would replace both the existing W-78 warhead currently fitted on Air Force ground-based missiles, as well as the W-88 warhead currently used on Navy submarine-based missiles.”

--”The proposal prompted concerns from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, in part due to a dramatic projected cost surge starting around the year 2018, and continuing through 2024 and perhaps beyond. At its peak in the early 2020s, this spending ‘bubble’ would reach a level of nearly $3 billion per year -- more than double what the United States currently spends on warhead life-extension programs,” Guarino says.

--“As an opponent of the plan to build interoperable warheads, [Stephen Young of the Union of Concerned Scientists] said he has concerns that extend beyond cost alone. On the technical side, he worries that the creation of interoperable warheads could create safety risks. One of the National Nuclear Security Administration's goals is for the IW-1 warhead to use insensitive high explosives, which are believed to be safer than conventional high explosives used for setting off a nuclear-warhead implosion, Young notes. In order to do this, officials will have to mix and match parts from the two existing weapons the IW-1 is meant to replace, a move that he fears could create its own unforeseeable risks.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1ndSjn8

Redesign ax- “The Pentagon would ax a redesign of the front-end kill vehicle atop its strategic missile interceptor if future sequestration cuts remain law,” reports Rachel Oswald for Global Security Newswire. “Sequestration levels were relaxed in defense spending legislation for fiscal 2014 and 2015. However, should these congressionally mandated reductions slated for 2016 and beyond remain in effect, the Defense Department plans to cancel an effort to correct design problems in its key missile-defense interceptor.”

--”The department's Missile Defense Agency announced in March it would seek a redesign of the EKV technology and requested $100 million for the project in fiscal 2015. Total funding for the project from fiscal 2015 through fiscal 2019 was planned to be $738 million. The bulk of project funding was slated to come in fiscal 2016 and 2017.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1m9Z4pQ

Alternative proposal - “An expert plan on alternatives to constructing a costly enriched-uranium processing plant has been completed and turned over to the Energy Department,” Global Security Newswire reports. Though few details about the plan are available, acting head of the National Nuclear Security Administration Bruce Held “was given the ‘Red Team’-produced plan on Tuesday,” composed by “roughly 25 specialists culled from various fields -- such as nuclear safety, security and project management -- were involved in producing the report, which examines options for modernizing uranium-processing operations at the Y-12 National Security Complex in Tennessee. The existing plan to build a multibillion-dollar Uranium Processing Facility has been criticized for its growing price tag, schedule delays and project mismanagement.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1ndVlYo

Report - “Ballistic Missile Defense: Actions Needed to Address Implementation Issues and Estimate Long-Term Costs for European Capabilities” by the Government Accountability Office. April 2014 (pdf). http://1.usa.gov/1j7lv8D

Kiev reconsiders - “Two of Ukraine's leading political parties, ‘Fatherland’ and ‘Strike,’ have jointly introduced a bill in Parliament that calls for the rejection of the country's 1994 accession to the 1968 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty,” write Howard Hall, Natalie Manayeva and Dean Rice.

--”Today, Russia's policies and actions toward Ukraine's Crimea region demonstrate complete disregard for this critically important memorandum and international law. As a response, some within the Ukrainian government are looking beyond an immediate call for Western help to a more proactive means of guaranteeing their national security, i.e. regaining nuclear weapons status. The recently introduced legislation is the latest expression of the growing sentiment that a nuclear Ukraine is a protected Ukraine…” Read the full piece here. http://cnn.it/1m9XzId

Reactor meltdown - “A former U.S. government policy analyst is warning a military conflict in Ukraine could affect the electric grid and endanger the nation's nuclear reactors,” writes Rachel Oswald in Global Security Newswire. “Ukraine operates 15 atomic energy reactors at four different locations. Those nuclear sites rely on outside electricity to maintain their cooling pumps, which prevent a reactor meltdown from occurring. In the event that Russia attacks Ukraine, ‘fighting could disrupt’ the nearby power plants or electrical grids that send electricity to the reactors… Without electricity to operate the reactors' cooling systems, there is a risk of nuclear meltdown occurring, as was the case in the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi power plant crisis in Japan.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1nsplgw

Iran interview - “There are a lot of nuclear threats out there, ranging from nuclear terrorism to South Asia to questions about the security of our own nuclear arsenal,” says Ploughshares Fund president Joseph Cirincione in an interview for the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs. “Iran is certainly a challenge, but I wouldn't put it at the top of our list of challenges. But it dominates the public discussion of nuclear weapons issues and it dominates people's perceptions of the threat. So it's actually a very good thing that for the last month or so Iran has been not only off the front pages, but largely out of the newspapers. This has given the negotiators from the P5+1 states—the United States, United Kingdom, France, China, Russia, and Germany—the time they need to actually do their work, to actually do the hard work of bargaining with Iran over how to constrain that country's nuclear program.”

--”I would say right now the outside experts are cautiously optimistic that the negotiators will reach a final agreement. This is a remarkable turnaround from even two years ago, where the question people were asking was when were we going to attack Iran, not what the terms of the final agreement would be,” Cirincione says. While “there are a dozen external factors that could intervene to torpedo a deal,” the recent defeat of legislation imposing further sanctions from reaching a vote and the determination of the Obama Administration to negotiate an agreement “bodes very well for a deal. But it's going to be a fight. The closer we get to a deal, the greater the opposition will be. And even if I'm right and we get a deal on July 20, late July or early August, then there's going to be a huge fight over whether to implement that deal. In some ways, that's when the struggle really will begin.” Read the full interview here. http://bit.ly/1eNIxFR

Half gone - “Hundreds of millions of tax dollars have been wasted on U.S. nuclear weapons infrastructure—again,” writes Eric Tamerlani in The Hill. “The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) wasted about $600 million on the design of the Uranium Processing Facility (UPF) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The waste was confirmed by Bruce Held, NNSA administrator. In an April 8 House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing chaired by Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), Held said that half of the $1.2 billion spent on designing the UPF is ‘just gone.’”

--”Half the money spent on designing the facility is gone with nothing to show for it,” Tamerlani says. “Demanding accountability from federal contractors, requiring independent performance evaluation from across the complex, and supplementing industry expertise with the Army Corps of Engineers protects taxpayers from waste and abuse and certifies the NNSA can be effective at overseeing large projects that it delegates to industry.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1mh9lxY

Uranium possession charges - “A terminated U.S. Army facility worker faces charges for holding what was thought to be a deadly form of uranium,” Global Security Newswire reports. “Police detained 44-year-old Joseph Gibeau on Saturday after allegedly finding radioactive substances inside several lead-shielded containers at his home while responding to a domestic call, the newspaper reported on Tuesday. Two containers reportedly held a substance tentatively identified by authorities as uranium sulfate, a potentially lethal chemical.

--"’If you inhale a single particle, it's fatal,’ Sussex County First Assistant Prosecutor Gregory Mueller said. Authorities allegedly also seized a quantity of americium 241, a radioactive isotope placed in fire alarms. The prosecutor said Gibeau may have taken the suspected uranium sulfate from Picatinny Arsenal, an Army facility in New Jersey where he was employed as a contractor until December… The suspect currently faces two counts of child endangerment because the substance was ‘easily accessible’ to his two children, ages 6 and 9, the prosecutor said during an initial court proceeding.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1tez6Df

Quick-hits:

--”B61-12 Nuclear Bomb Design Features” by Hans Kristensen in the Federation of American Scientists Strategic Security Blog. http://bit.ly/1ndVJWR

--”Switzerland Declares its 2013 Plutonium Stock” by Pavel Podvig for International Panel on Fissile Materials. http://bit.ly/1j7f8Dw

--”India’s Modi Says Committed to No First Use of Nuclear Weapon” by Douglas Busvine in Reuters. http://reut.rs/1lbKl9G

--”IAEA Chief: Iran Complying with Nuclear Scale-Down Commitments” by Carol Williams in the Los Angeles Times. http://lat.ms/1jNoRRd

Events:

--“Crisis in Ukraine, the Budapest Memorandum and Extended Deterrence.” Discussion with Steven Pifer. April 22 from 12:30 to 2:00 at National Defense University, 408 Fourth Ave., Fort McNair, Washington. RSVP by email to Nima.Gerami@ndu.edu

--“Garwin: Witness to History.” Film screening and panel discussion with Richard Garwin, Richard Breyer, Anand Kamalakar, and Charles Ferguson. April 22 from 5:00-8:00 at the American Association for the Advancement of Science, auditorium, 1200 New York Ave. NW. RSVP by email to rsvp@fas.org.

--“Making a Difference: Faith Communities Speak to the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons.” Discussion with Andrew Kanter, Daryl Kimball, and eight other speakers. April 24 from 9:30-4:00 at the U.S. Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave., NW, Washington. http://conta.cc/1ssfg70

--”Preparing for Deep Cuts: Options for Enhancing Euro-Atlantic and International Security.” Discussion with Ulrich Kuehn, Götz Neuneck, Eugene Miasnikov, and Greg Thielmann; moderated by Steven Pifer. April 28 from 10:00-11:30 at The Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1hOGcd1

--“The United States and Iran: Can Diplomacy Prevent an Iranian Bomb?” Discussion with former Amb. Thomas Pickering and Shaul Bakhash. April 28 from 6:00-7:15 at American University, Abramson Family Founders Room, 4400 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington. RSVP here. http://conta.cc/1eEMAyC