Senate Doomsday Caucus Blocks Nuclear Reductions

April 9, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Paying for empty silos - “The U.S. will keep its current force of 450 land-based nuclear missiles but remove 50 from their launch silos as part of a plan to bring the U.S. into compliance with a 2011 U.S.-Russia arms control treaty,” Robert Burns reports for the AP. “The decisions come after a strong push by members of Congress from the states that host missile bases - North Dakota, Wyoming and Montana - to not eliminate any of the silos from which the missiles would be launched. Fifty silos will be kept in ‘warm’ status - empty of missiles but capable of returning to active use.”

--“The decision to put 50 missiles in storage but not eliminate any of their launch silos is a departure from the practice followed throughout the 50-plus year history of intercontinental ballistic missiles. Hans Kristensen, an arms control expert at the Federation of American Scientists, called the administration's announcement disappointing as an apparent shift away from ICBM force reductions.” He said that, “This decision appears to have more to do with the administration surrendering to the ICBM caucus (in Congress) than with strategic considerations about national security."

--“The Pentagon said it will cost $19.3 million over five years to keep the 50 launch silos and missiles in standby status. The 50 missiles will be stored at their base or, in some cases, sent to a depot for repairs or maintenance. Keeping all 450 silos meant the Pentagon had to make steeper reductions in the Navy's sea-based nuclear force in order to comply with the New START, or Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, by 2018.” Read the full story here. http://apne.ws/1hAzmmg

Gloating - “Senators Jon Tester and John Walsh today praised the Defense Department's decision to keep the nation's 454 ICBM silos operational, securing Malmstrom Air Force Base's critical role in protecting the nation's security,” says a press release. Tester, the co-chairman of the Senate ICBM Coalition said that, "Today's announcement is a big win for our nation's security and for Malmstrom Air Force Base and north-central Montana. ICBMs are the most cost-effective nuclear deterrent, and keeping silos warm is a smart decision and the kind of common-sense Montanans expect from their leaders." Furthermore he said that, “Today's news is welcome, but the fight is not over, and I will be on the frontline to make sure Malmstrom continues to play an important role in our nation's defense… and at a time of instability in eastern Europe, it is critical that the ICBM mission remains strong." Read the full statement from Tester’s website. http://1.usa.gov/1i1aiJQ

New START force - “The United States will scale back its nuclear bombers, submarine launchers and ballistic missiles in the first cuts to its leftover cold war nuclear arsenal since ratifying a landmark treaty with Russia in 2011,” writes David Alexander in Reuters. “Under the treaty, known as New Start, the U.S. military will disable four missile launch tubes on each of the 14 U.S. nuclear submarines, convert 30 B-52 nuclear bombers to conventional use and empty 50 intercontinental ballistic missile silos, senior administration officials said.”

--According to Daryl Kimball, “The administration's plan for adjusting the force to meet New START goals is modest in the extreme and still leaves the U.S. with far more strategic nuclear weapons than the president and the Pentagon say they need for deterrence purposes.” Read the full article here. http://reut.rs/1lQ8ruw

DoD reports - “Fact Sheet on U.S. Nuclear Force Structure under the New START Treaty,” from the Department of Defense. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1gLh41M

--“Report on Plan to Implement the Nuclear Force Reductions, Limitations, and Verification and Transparency Measures Contained in the New START Treaty Specified in Section 1042 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012,” from the Department of Defense. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1ear89M

Analysis - “After four years of internal deliberations, the U.S. Air Force has decided to empty 50 Minuteman III ICBMs from 50 of the nation’s 450 ICBM silos,” writes Hans M. Kristensen for FAS Strategic Security Blog. “Instead of destroying the empty silos, however, they will be kept ‘warm’ to allow reloading the missiles in the future if necessary. The decision to retain the silos rather than destroy them is in sharp contrast to the destruction of 100 empty silos currently underway at Malmstrom AFB and F.E. Warren AFB. Those silos were emptied of Minuteman and MX ICBMs in 2005-2008 by the Bush administration and are scheduled to be destroyed by 2016.”

--“The Obama administration’s decision to retain the silos 50 silos ‘reduced’ under the New START treaty instead of destroying them is a disappointing new development that threatens to weaken New START treaty implementation and the administration’s arms reduction profile. The decision to retain the 50 empty silos is also puzzling because it reduces U.S. flexibility to maintain the remaining nuclear forces under the New START limit. The treaty stipulates that the United States and Russia each can only have 700 deployed launchers and 100 non-deployed launchers. But the 50 empty silos will count against the total limit, essentially eating up half of the 100 non-deployed launcher limit and reducing the number of spaces available for missiles and bombers in overhaul… Why the administration would accept such constraints on the flexibility of the U.S. nuclear force posture simply to satisfy the demands of the so-called ICBM caucus in Congress is baffling.”

--“The decision to retain excess ICBM silos instead of destroying them contributes to a Russian misperception that the United States is intent on retaining a strategic advantage and a breakout capability from the New START treaty to quickly increase its deployed nuclear forces if necessary. The administration can and should change its decision and destroy the ICBM silos that are emptied under New START.” Read the full analysis here. http://bit.ly/1n3t3gq

Tweet - @NNSANews: NNSA welcomes Lt Gen Frank G. Klotz (Ret) as its next Administrator! http://t.co/ioVhfqcXaP

Prague at 5 - “We have many challenges ahead, but the successes of the Prague agenda over the past five years prove that when we hold firm, we can make this world a safer place,” writes Under Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller on the accomplishments of and the outlook for President Obama’s nuclear policy agenda. From Dipnote. http://1.usa.gov/PX3KBe

Tweet - @lrozen: Ashton/Zarif: held substantive & detailed discussions ...We will now move to next phase..aim to bridge the gaps. Next meeting may13 #iran

Everything as planned - “Iran is implementing last year's interim nuclear deal with six world powers as planned, U.N. atomic energy chief Yukiya Amano said on Wednesday, almost three months after the accord took effect,” writes Balazs Koranyi in Reuters. Read the full piece here. http://reut.rs/1kqHoGk

Tweet - @marieharf: Final plenary of round three of comprehensive Iran nuclear talks is underway with P5+1, EU, and Iranian negotiators: pic.twitter.com/WAjH3cPeY5

Quick-hits:

--“Iran Aviation Official in Vienna to Discuss Sanctions Relief” by Parisa Hafezi in Reuters. http://reut.rs/1gL2irK

--“Potential Shift in India’s Nuclear-Arms Policy Draws Dismay” in Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/1oMay4C

--“Obama’s New Nuclear Weapons” by Marc Ambinder in The Week. http://bit.ly/1n3AzaV

Events:

--“National Nuclear Security Administration management of its National Security Laboratories and the status of the Nuclear Security Enterprise.” Hearing from Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces Subcommittee. April 9 at 2:30. Webcast available on the committee website. http://1.usa.gov/1qeqJVP

--“The Iranian Nuclear Talks and Regional Arms Control." Discussion with Sameh Aboul-Enein, Ziad Ali Khalil Abu Zayyad, Shlomo Brom, and Hillel Schenker. April 10 from 12:00-2:00 at the At Women’s National Democratic Club, 1526 New Hampshire Ave., NW, Washington. RSVP here. RSVP by email to fes.temp2@fesdc.org

--“Challenges to Further Nuclear Arms Reduction.” Discussion with Dennis Gromley, Götz Neuneck, and Nikolai Sokov. April 14 from 2:00-3:30 at Brookings Institution, Saul/Zilkha Rooms, 1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1jnQbFs

--“Making a Difference: Faith Communities Speak to the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons.” Discussion with Andrew Kanter, Daryl Kimball, and eight other speakers. April 24 from 9:30-4:00 at the U.S. Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave., NW, Washington. http://conta.cc/1ssfg70