Congress Could Shatter a Good Deal with Iran

January 23, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Good deal in danger - “In recent weeks, Iran and the United States, for the first time, have broken through more than a decade of impasse over Iran’s nuclear program. Significant differences remain, but at long last, both governments appear ready to work their way toward a resolution. Yet the US Congress, acting reflexively against Iran, and under intense pressure from Israel, seems ready to shatter the agreement with a bill that takes no account of Iranian political developments, misunderstands proliferation realities, and ignores the dire national security consequences for the United States.”

--“For the first time in decades, the US has an opportunity to test whether it can reach a settlement with Iran that would turn what may still be an active weapons program into a transparent, internationally monitored, civilian program. The pressure of multilateral sanctions, the president’s willingness to engage in serious negotiations, and the change in Iran’s domestic politics have come together to produce this moment…The alternatives are war or a nuclear-armed Iran. Should this be a hard choice? Astonishingly, too many members of Congress seem to think so.” Read the full piece from Jessica T. Mathews in The New York Review of Books. http://bit.ly/1mGVJgk

IAEA compliance - “The report by the UN watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Monday that Iran was complying with the Joint Plan of Action struck in November,” writes Michael Alder in Breaking Defense. The “glowing UN report showing that Iran was doing what it was supposed to do” constitutes a blow to the move by some in Congress seeking to impose new sanctions on Iran. Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1eFaMCF

Tweet - @ReutersIran: IAEA expected to win member state backing for expanded Iran role http://reut.rs/LYYaNq

Cheating is the norm - “Top military officials were quick to voice outrage over revelations last week that 34 officers responsible for launching the nation’s nuclear missiles cheated on monthly proficiency tests, but few expressed surprise,” writes Helene Cooper in a piece for The New York Times. “Cheating has been a fact of life among America’s nuclear launch officers for decades, crew members and instructors said.”

--However, this has only been a single incident in a recent spate of mishaps among Air Force nuclear missile officers. “In the past year, a general who oversaw nuclear weapons was dismissed for drunken antics during an official trip to Moscow, 17 officers assigned to stand watch over nuclear-tipped Minuteman missiles were removed for violating safety codes and having bad attitudes, and missileers with nuclear launch authority were caught napping with the blast door open — a violation of security regulations meant to prevent terrorists or other intruders from entering the underground command post and compromising secret launch codes.” Read the full story here. http://nyti.ms/1eVkdMT

Secretary visits - “The Air Force’s top civilian leader visited Minot Air Force Base Wednesday, the latest in a string of stops from high-level officials in response to various blunders at the military installations that care for the nation’s nuclear arsenal,” the AP reports. “The trip came just days after the commander in charge of training and proficiency at the base’s 91st Missile Wing was ousted due to ‘a loss of confidence.’ The AP revealed in May that the 91st Missile Wing had scored the equivalent of a ‘D’ grade for its mastery of missile launch operations during a test in March that led to 19 launch crew members being taken off duty for remedial training.”

--“The bomber wing at the Minot base also has been under scrutiny for years, following a 2007 mishap in which a B-52 bomber was mistakenly armed with six nuclear-tipped cruise missiles in Minot and flown to Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana. Other lapses at the base followed the 2007 bomber flight, including two crashes of vehicles carrying missile parts in a little more than a year, the theft of a launch code device, the discovery of missile crew members sleeping on the job and failed inspections.” http://wapo.st/1iqwbUe

Poll: 2-1 support - “A new poll released on Wednesday found that a solid majority of Americans — by greater than a 2 to 1 margin — support the first step nuclear deal with Iran, a finding that lines up with most recent surveys taken on the issue.” Read the full report from Ben Armbruster for Think Progress. http://bit.ly/1aODPQC

End State - “Having finalized details of the interim deal to freeze Iran's nuclear program for six months in exchange for limited relief from sanctions, attention is turning to the question of ‘end states’ for a comprehensive agreement. In these negotiations, what can the United States realistically hope to achieve?... An ugly deal that achieves our minimum essential objectives is better than the other feasible alternatives -- namely an Iran advancing ever closer to a bomb, or another war in the Middle East.” Read the full article by Graham Allison for Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1dS1UvL

Talks timing - “The Obama administration expects negotiations on a final nuclear agreement between world powers and Iran to begin by mid-February,” reports Bradley Klapper for AP. Full story here. http://abcn.ws/1mL6Vsj

Growing list - “Add two more prominent Senators to the list of lawmakers who oppose a vote on an Iran sanctions bill right now: Patty Murray and Elizabeth Warren,” writes Greg Sargent in The Washington Post. “Announcements like the one earlier this month indicating that the deal with Iran is moving forward make a [sanctions] vote still less likely.” Full article here. http://wapo.st/1iquciZ

Reckless actions - “Monday could go down in history as the day we took our first step toward a comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran that prevents the country from ever acquiring a nuclear weapon,” writes Matt Lockshin in the Huffington Post. “But the peaceful resolution of international concerns about Iran's nuclear program is hardly assured…We need to do all that we can to provide time and space for the administration to negotiate a verifiable deal that protects our interests and advances our security in a peaceful manner. Congress will try to prevent that, and it's our job to ensure that it doesn't.” Read the full piece here. http://huff.to/1f99lNY

Threatening the deal - “The nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers, which took effect this week, is a big step forward for U.S. security. Unfortunately, some members of Congress are threatening to undermine the agreement by imposing additional sanctions. This is the time when we need to be celebrating this step forward rather than letting our fears and power politics get the better of us,” writes Rachel Staley. Full article in the Star-Ledger. http://bit.ly/1hnfipS

Reassurances - “Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said his country won’t impede progress toward a final nuclear accord with world powers and will use ‘constructive engagement’ to help Iran’s sanctions-hit economy recover,” report Ladane Nasseri and Alaa Shahine. “One of the theoretical and practical pillars of my government is constructive engagement with the world,” said Rouhani in his Davos address. “Without international engagement, objectives such as growth, creativity and quality are unattainable. We will make use of active foreign policy to achieve economic development.” Full report in Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/1c72wvC

Indian SSBN - “The Indian navy announced on Tuesday that the nation’s first ballistic-missile submarine is anticipated shortly to begin sea trials,” Global Security Newswire reports. “Once the indigenously developed submarine is deployed, India will possess a full strategic triad -- the ability to deliver nuclear weapons by air, land and sea. The Indian navy envisions wielding a fleet of at least three ballistic-missile submarines.” Read the full report here. http://bit.ly/1f97SqV

Quick-Hits:

--“Why New Sanctions on Iran Won’t Work” by Alireza Nader for The National Journal. http://bit.ly/1dY3zhR

--“Murphy takes on question of Iran sanctions” by Eve Sullivan for Greenwich Time. http://bit.ly/1ff76Xi

--“Against Odds, Ban Ki-Moon Presses Nuclear Disarmament Forum” in Defense One. http://bit.ly/1eFce8m

--“Federal spending bill includes money for Y-12 water plant, reduces UPF spending” by John Huotari for Oak Ridge Today. http://bit.ly/1dScuCS

Events:

--”Resolved: The United States Should Modernize Only One Leg of the Nuclear Triad.” Debate with Christopher Preble and Elbridge Colby. Jan. 27th from 6:00-8:00 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/L7utt2

--”Implementation of the Iran Nuclear Deal.” Hearing of the House Joint Subcommittee Hearing, featuring Mark Wallace, Gregory Jones, Olli Heinonen, and David Albright. Jan. 28th at 2:00 pm in Rayburn 2172. http://1.usa.gov/1c7lQZM