Progress Seen Securing Dangerous Nuclear Materials

On the radar: The state of global nuclear security; The most dangerous country; Hagel on triad, costs; Nuke budget doesn’t match strategy; Negotiations with Iran continue; Iran's centrifuges; Dooming diplomacy; Hagel’s rare visit; and U.S. and Taiwan sign nuclear trade accord.

January 9, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Nuclear security improves - The new Nuclear Materials Security Index report “issued Wednesday on the security of deadly nuclear materials found steady improvement, with seven countries in the last two years giving up most of their uranium and plutonium that could be readily turned into weapons,” writes William J. Broad in an article for The New York Times. Such actions have “lowered the number of nations with appreciable fuel for atomic bombs to 25 from 32.”

--“The nations that made the biggest gains were Belgium, Canada, and Japan,” which passed new security legislation, joined treaties, and decreased the quantity of their materials. Seven other countries were entirely “removed from the list of those with bomb-making fuel [including] Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Mexico, Sweden, Ukraine and Vietnam. According to the report, their new status means they possess one kilogram (2.2 pounds) or less of materials that can fuel nuclear arms.”

--The United States fell in standing to tie with the United Kingdom in 11th place, largely due to the fact that the U.S. “has not ratified two nuclear accords despite making commitments to do so.” This “is particularly negative as other states block efforts to strengthen nuclear security, arguing that they will consider new initiatives only after the United States becomes party to the agreements.” Read the story here. http://nyti.ms/KIWA1z

Full Report - “A nuclear detonation in any part of the world will affect us all. We need a global nuclear materials security system to secure all materials, to employ international standards and best practices, and to give states the capacity to assess nuclear security globally and hold each other accountable," said NTI Co-Chairman and former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn. "Leaders at the Nuclear Security Summit must resolve these fundamental issues to strengthen global security in the long-term.” Read the full report here. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1d3flHa

World’s most dangerous? - “Pakistan did more since 2012 to boost protection of its atomic-bomb fuel than any other nuclear-armed country, analysts said on Wednesday. The South Asian nation ‘is taking steps to update its nuclear security regulations and to implement nuclear security best practices,’ according to the NTI Nuclear Materials Index.”

--Pakistan's nuclear security earned an overall score of 46 on a 100-point scale. “A number of possible nuclear arms-storage sites in Pakistan have faced attack in recent years,” and “such incidents have brought intense international attention to bear on the security of Islamabad's growing nuclear stockpile, which is currently estimated at between 90 and 110 nuclear warheads.” Diane Barnes of Defense One has the story. http://bit.ly/1d30YCE

Hagel on nukes - “Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said on Wednesday the United States had always supported a strong nuclear deterrent and would continue to do so, even as it braces for a nuclear forces overhaul that analysts say could cost $1 trillion over 30 years,” reports David Alexander. "To modernize your nuclear weapons stockpile and assure that they continue to stay secure and safe, it takes money, it takes resources," Hagel remarked.

--"In a constrained budget environment, and in a time in which the president has already determined that the United States can reduce our deployed strategic arsenal by a third... we don't believe the taxpayer should be asked to build a new triad that's the same size, the same firepower as the triad that we no longer need," said Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association. Reuters has the story. http://reut.rs/1bUOKri

Budget not matching strategy - “The pressure is on for the U.S. to rebuild a cold war nuclear arsenal over the next 30 years,” writes Jon Wolfsthal in the Huffington Post. But “as the threat goes down, we plan to spend more. In an age of budget constraint, it is hard to see how an increase in nuclear weapons spending is needed or aids American security. Nuclear weapons are practically irrelevant to the threats of nuclear terrorism or other regional threats we face today.” Read the full piece here. http://huff.to/1a3pxOS

Negotiations continue - The top U.S. negotiator is set to travel to Geneva this week to meet with Iranian and European counterparts “to complete negotiations on implementing November's interim nuclear accord,” writes Laurence Norman of The Wall Street Journal. “European and Iranian diplomats have said they hope to have November's deal in place later this month,” though the two sides have outstanding issues that must be resolved. Full story here. http://on.wsj.com/19V7lJI

Tweet - @lrozen: "Everything US wd like to see in #Iran is on the line with the nuclear deal. That's the tragedy w/ Senate sanctions. Most counterproductive" http://bit.ly/1bVjp7D

Sticking point - “Research and development of a new model of advanced nuclear centrifuge that Iran says it has installed” is a key issue “to be resolved in political discussions due to begin in Geneva later this week,” reports Louis Charbonneau for Reuters. Western diplomats said that centrifuges are a “‘sticking point’ in the talks with Iran.” Full story here. http://reut.rs/1eumBdi

How to doom diplomacy - “Some analysts argue that U.S. negotiators should use the leverage created by crippling economic sanctions and Iran’s apparent willingness to negotiate to insist on a total dismantling of Iran’s fuel-cycle activities,” writes Colin Kahl in Foreign Affairs. “Attempting to keep Iran as far away from nuclear weapons as possible seems prudent and reasonable.”

--However, “the quest for an optimal deal that requires a permanent end to Iranian enrichment at any level would likely doom diplomacy, making the far worse outcomes of unconstrained nuclearization or a military showdown over Tehran's nuclear program much more probable,” Kahl says. Read the full article here. http://fam.ag/1lEIxb5

Hagel visit - “Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel is making a rare visit to an Air Force nuclear missile base, hoping to boost morale among the men and women who operate, maintain and safeguard the nation's Minuteman 3 nuclear missiles,” reports Robert Burns for AP. “Officials have said those service members are increasingly tired of working in what can seem like oblivion. They win no battles, earn no combat pay and only rarely are given public credit of any kind.”

--Publicity over the Air Force’s embarrassing lapses in its handling of nuclear weapons “has made the ICBM force a ‘hot potato,’ causing Pentagon officials to ‘scratch their heads about how to manage this program. You cannot reassure the public about this when you are having these failures all the time,’” according to Hans Kristensen. Full article here. http://n.pr/19V8JMg

Taiwan - “President Obama on Tuesday submitted to Capitol Hill a bilateral nuclear trade accord with Taiwan, which embraces strong nonproliferation controls,” writes Elaine Grossman. Taiwan is the first nation “since 2009 to include in the text of an atomic cooperative agreement with Washington a pledge not to produce nuclear fuel domestically. The pact is to replace an existing 40-year nuclear agreement between the two sides that expires in June.” Read the full piece in Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/1eISXl2

Event:

--”Making Sense of Nuclear Negotiations with Iran: A Good Deal or a Bad Deal?” Discussion with Alireza Nader, Daryl Kimball and Paul Pillar. Jan. 22nd from 10:00-11:00am at 2168 Rayburn House Office Building. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/19Th8zR