Levin and Boxer: Don’t Derail Diplomacy with New Iran Sanctions

December 19, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Lauren Mladenka

Letting diplomacy work - “The United States faces no more important international challenge than preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Thanks to congressional and executive action, strong international cooperation, crippling economic sanctions and the credible threat of military force if Iran does not change course, we recently achieved an important step toward that goal—a step that offers some hope for a peaceful end to Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons,” write Senators Carl Levin (D-MI) and Barbara Boxer (D-CA) in Politico.

--Further congressional sanctions “would run the risk of derailing efforts toward a peaceful resolution, and risk the unity we have achieved with the world community that has been so crucial to our progress to date. Fortunately, many in Congress, us included, believe that we must test this window of opportunity, to see whether Iran’s new President Hassan Rouhani can deliver on the promise of a comprehensive solution that closes Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon.” Full article here. http://politi.co/JLssSM

Hamstringing diplomacy - “Three top senators, including two Democrats, have begun circulating a draft of a new Iran sanctions bill,” reports Ali Gharib for Foreign Policy. The legislation would expand sanctions against Iran’s energy sector while allowing the president the latitude to “waive the new sanctions during the current talks by certifying every 30 days that Iran is complying with the Geneva deal and negotiating in good faith on a final agreement.”

--"The law as written comes close to violating the letter [of the Geneva agreement] since the sanctions go into effect immediately unless the administration immediately waives them," said Colin Kahl. Read the full article here. http://atfp.co/IY9GXu

Tweet - @Cirincione: 6 in 10 Americans support the deal to end Iran's bomb program in new @AP poll. http://bit.ly/18B1rfy

Leverage and flexibility - “The authority to trade in existing sanctions for Iranian nuclear concessions has become muddled after more than three decades of legislation. To facilitate a comprehensive deal, Congress could pass a sanctions ‘kill switch’ that syncs up waiver authorities for the president, providing clear-cut assurances that we can deliver on our end of the bargain,” writes Ryan Costello.

--Such a mechanism would “[enable] the president to not just waive sanctions for a few months, as virtually all Congressional sanctions permit, but to repeal them on a permanent basis at a time of his choosing. [It] would require the president to certify to Congress that Iran has reached a final agreement that will satisfy international concerns regarding its nuclear program…This would provide the administration maximum flexibility and leverage to obtain Iranian concessions because Iran would have faith that the president can deliver.” Read the article in The National Interest.http://bit.ly/1dp1EzZ

Merits of diplomacy - Former Secretaries of State George Shultz and Henry Kissinger endorsed diplomacy with Iran a recent Wall Street Journal Article. ”These diplomats know what they are talking about. Each was instrumental in tectonic shifts in US foreign policy. Each has learnt that successful diplomacy always has more constructive results than war. Neither can be accused of failing to place national security in their thinking. There are lessons in their experiences that can open minds on the value of diplomacy with Iran, ” write Ambassadors William Luers and Thomas Pickering.

--Luers and Pickering discuss the former secretaries’ diplomatic breakthroughs with Russia and China, with lessons for diplomacy with Iran. ”John Kerry today has a similar opportunity. He could follow the Kissinger-Shultz path and change through diplomacy US relations with a major adversary, which could have profound implications for America’s role in the world.” Financial Times has the article. http://on.ft.com/1kY7D1D

Tweet - @OswaldRachel: Putin says nuclear-capable Iskander missiles not yet deployed in Kaliningrad, tells NATO members to "calm down." http://t.co/LsqIDQmTH4

Nukes on a train - Russia plans to deploy Yars missiles in rail cars, replacing the Soviet-era rail-mobile missiles that Russia scrapped in 2005. Vladimir Isachenkov of AP has the report. http://bit.ly/19V2aDr

Tweet - AP photographer @dguttenfelder: North Korea's Unha rocket. For preschoolers. http://bit.ly/1cdLA7N

Industrial base - “The Pentagon is examining the nuclear-triad industrial base in a new assessment designed to suss out critical but struggling areas that need to be protected,” reports Inside Defense. (paywall) http://bit.ly/1cdFDaJ

Quick hits:

--”New Head Appointed to Take Charge of Pakistan’s Nuclear Assets” from UPI. http://bit.ly/1beO8MG

--”Congress Moves to Solidify Pentagon Oversight of Nuclear Communications” by Rachel Oswald of Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/1eqOis5

--”Nuclear Détente With Iran: Here’s What Could Disrupt It Before It Gets Going” by Jofi Joseph for the Atlantic Council. http://bit.ly/1bSBfvl

Event:

--Joseph Cirincione, Ploughshares Fund, book discussion of Nuclear Nightmares: Securing the World Before It Is Too Late. January 4th @ 6:00 pm, at Politics and Prose in Washington DC. http://bit.ly/IPJMW5

Dessert:

Soviet missile misadventures - “Bad intelligence, planning, awful tropical weather and drunkenness were just a few of the problems faced by the [Soviet] nuclear missileers” tasked with deploying nuclear missiles in Cuba in 1962. Robert Beckhusen writes about newly obtained Soviet reports showing that the Russians had a rough time setting up the Cuban missile crisis.

--Blame the weather: “Cuban ground is heavily rocky, with a thin layer of red dirt on top of it, making it difficult to build dirt bunkers [for housing]. As they landed in the country during the rainy season—on top of the Cuban humidity—building dugouts into the ground meant living in a swamp. Rain delayed construction at the missile sites. And to keep troops dry, the Soviets constructed pronounced tent cities highly visible for American U-2 reconnaissance flights.” Full story from War is Boring. http://bit.ly/19f6DGF