Nukes in the Defense Bill: New START Prep, Warhead Concerns and More

On the radar: Summary on the compromise NDAA; New sanctions unnecessary and provocative; Iran’s economy set to contract, even with deal; Progress in Geneva; and the Last of Megatons to Megawatts arrives.

December 11, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Nukes in the NDAA - The leadership of the House and Senate Armed Services Committees released a compromise version of the National Defense Authorization Act for FY2014. Below are some of the nuclear highlights. The bill would:

--Allow the Pentagon to plan and prepare for implementing nuclear reductions to meet the New START treaty limits by 2018, with funding linked to submission of such a plan to Congress. The bill would also allow some B-52H bombers to be converted for conventional-only roles and include a sense of Congress that any ICBM reductions should leave silos in “warm status” and not disproportionately affect any one ICBM wing.

--Require analysis of the cost and risks for the controversial interoperable warhead proposal and the two strategic warheads it is intended to replace.

--Provide a sense of Congress that the B61-12 should remain a high priority, and that further program delays would be bad.

--Require that any replacement of the Air Launched Cruise Missile contain an option for a conventional version.

--Authorize missile defense programs to spend $9.5 billion - an increase of $358 above requested - to support a new radar on the East Coast, attempt to fix to the troubled GMD system and offer a lot of support for Israeli missile defense systems.

--Authorize $543 million, $40 million above requested, for the problem-plagued MOX plutonium fuel project in South Carolina.

--Press release on the bill here. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1fjYfEU
--Complete bill text here. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1kzyiS6

Warhead idea under fire - “House and Senate lawmakers are standing firm in a feud with the White House over whether the Obama administration should be required to study alternatives to a costly plan for upgrading a pair of U.S. nuclear warheads,” reports Douglas Guarino for Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/JevZc7

New sanctions won’t work - “New sanctions are dangerous and threaten to derail diplomacy, making a peaceful resolution to the Iranian nuclear challenge more difficult to achieve,” writes Colin Kahl for Politico Magazine. “Deferred congressional sanctions may not violate the letter of the agreement, but they most certainly violate its spirit, providing Iranian forces hoping to scuttle the next phase of diplomacy a prime opportunity to do so.” Full article here. http://politi.co/18BJJDm

Sanctions in perspective - “I am confident that the sanctions pressure on Iran will continue to mount. Iran will be even deeper in the hole six months from now, when the deal expires, than it is today,” writes David Cohen, Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. He argues that the $6 or $7 billion Iran stands to receive in sanctions relief is insignificant compared to the ongoing economic contraction Iran is experiencing due to the banking and oil sanctions still in place.

--”Sanctions gave Iran a powerful incentive to accept this first-step deal, and they will be key to negotiating the comprehensive resolution that ensures Iran cannot obtain a nuclear weapon,” writes Cohen. Full article in The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1bvMrdI

New sanctions unlikely, for now - "The president and Secretary Kerry have made a strong case for a pause in Congressional action on new Iran sanctions, so I am inclined to support their request and hold off on Committee action for now,” said Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD), Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee.

--For the time being, with the Banking Committee not pushing forward new Iran sanctions and no sanctions likely to be included in the defense authorization bill, the Administration has been able to keep sanctions hawks in Congress from spoiling delicate diplomacy with Iran. Yochi Dreazen and John Hudson of Foreign Policy explain the state of play on sanctions. http://atfp.co/IPtn3l

Goings on in Geneva - “Iran Sees Progress in Talks with Powers on Nuclear Deal Implementation” reports Fredrik Dahl of Reuters. http://reut.rs/1aV2GRo

Budget deal reached - Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) last night reached a budget deal that could avert another government shutdown and scrap part of planned sequester cuts for the current year. The whole plan would save $28 billion over ten years and would increase the defense discretionary spending cap by more than $20 billion in FY2014 and $9 billion in FY2015. Here’s the summary. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1bvRb33

Megatons to Megawatts - The final shipment of uranium under the U.S.-Russia “Megatons to Megawatts” program arrived in Baltimore this week from St. Petersburg. Matthew Daly at AP has the story. http://yhoo.it/1jNAw2H

Events:

--”Understanding the Iran Nuclear Deal.” Online webinar with Reza Marashi. Dec. 11 from 3:30 to 4:30. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1bs2g8L

--”Critical Mass: Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East.” Discussion with Rep. Jim Cooper, Rep. Mac Thornberry, and Andrew Krepinevich at 2218 Rayburn House Office Building. Dec. 12 at 10:00. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1863IPJ

--”Key Policy Issues for U.S. Nuclear Cooperation.” Discussion with Rose Gottemoeller, Daniel Poneman, Thomas Moore, Mary Beth Nikitin, Miles Pomper (possible), Leonard Spector (possible), and Steve Rademaker at the Atlantic Council. Dec. 12 from 3:00-5:30pm. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1cUX6kw

--”New Nuclear Suppliers.” Discussion with Chris Gadomski and Gretchen Hund at Center for Strategic and International Studies, room 212-A/B, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Dec. 13 from 9:00 to 11:30. RSVP details here. link

--Deterrence Stability and Escalation Control in South Asia.” Discussion with Rose Gottemoeller, Robert Einhorn, Mansoor Ahmed, and Silakanta Mishra at Stimson. Dec. 13 from 11:30-2:00. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1dLltq3