Global Nuclear Upgrades Outpacing Global Nuclear Reductions

On the radar: Modernizing vs reducing; New sanctions push; OPCW awarded nobel; Choose your own enrichment deal; Iran’s missiles; and Ash Carter stepping down.

October 11, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Conflicting agendas - “The world's stockpile of nuclear weapons is a quarter of the size it was at its Cold War peak in the 1980s - but the United States, Russia, China, France and Britain are all considering or taking steps to modernize their arms systems,” writes Fredrik Dahl of Reuters about the imbalance between modernization and disarmament.

--"Robust nuclear weapon modernization programs... raise legitimate questions over whether these steps are heading toward global zero, or instead to a permanently nuclear-armed world," said Angela Kane, UN high representative for disarmament affairs.

--”If nations conclude that the U.S. and Russia have no intention of ever eliminating their obsolete Cold War arsenals, they will hedge their bets and at least explore developing their own nuclear forces," said Joe Cirincione. Full article here. http://reut.rs/GRLfdG

New round of sanctions - The Senate has teed up a new Iran sanctions bill, getting into position to either coerce Iran to cooperate at the negotiating table or spoil a delicate diplomatic opportunity.

--“The Senate banking committee, under pressure from Secretary of State John Kerry, agreed to put a brief pause on its bill to avoid spoiling the first bargaining session in Geneva. But the committee’s chairman, Senator Tim Johnson, Democrat of South Dakota, has told the Obama administration he plans to move forward with the bill in coming weeks,” reports Mark Landler for The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/GRInNX

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Deserved - The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for its work destroying chemical weapons and its current mission in Syria. Alan Cowell of The New York Times reports. http://nyti.ms/1g5MqFZ

DIY nuclear deal - Any successful nuclear deal with Iran will include controls on Iran’s uranium enrichment program that limit Iran’s potential to breakout and build a bomb. How limited should Iran’s program be to provide sufficient assurance? Scott Kemp in Arms Control Wonk offers the tools needed for you to decide how much enrichment rollback is required to limit Iran’s breakout capability. “It’s a Choose Your Own Adventure for nuclear diplomacy,” writes Kemp. Charts, graphs and SWU calculations here. http://bit.ly/19pspTf

Saving nukes from shutdown - “The House on Friday could debate legislation to temporarily restore funding for the National Nuclear Security Administration as the federal government remains partially shut down amid partisan gridlock over a U.S. budget,” reports Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/GRJ4H5

Article - “As Hopes for Nuclear Deal Rise, Iran’s Missiles Still Pose Problems” by Bruno Tertrais in World Politics Review. (wedged behind a paywall) http://bit.ly/15YV3xm

Moving on - Deputy Secretary of Defense Ash Carter is stepping down after more than six years of service in the Department of Defense. Colin Clark has the story. http://bit.ly/GTCXRv

Events:

--”A Discussion with Ken Pollack, Author of Unthinkable” Wed. Oct. 16 from noon-1:00 at the Middle East Institute. Details here. http://bit.ly/1b3xnX3

--”Minimum Deterrence: Examining the Evidence” discussion with Doug Feith, John Harvey, Amb. Robert Joseph, Adm. Richard Miles and Keith Payne at the Hudson Institute. Wed. Oct. 16th from 12:00-1:30pm. Lunch will be provided. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/17g8Dqg

--”The End of Overkill? Reassessing U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy” Discussion with Benjamin Friedman, Elbridge Colby, Hans Kristensen, Matt Fay and Christopher Preble. Oct. 15th at noon at the CATO Institute. http://bit.ly/1hwKUYC

--”Securing The Nuclear Enterprise: What Nuclear Crises Teach Us About Future Security Threats” Discussion with Matt Stokes, Henry Sokolski and Brian Finlay at Stimson. Tues. Oct. 22 from 11:30-1:00. Details here. http://bit.ly/17dNvBY