Carrot and Stick: Managing Sanctions and Cooperation with Iran

On the radar: Sherman on the US negotiating position; Trouble on Rouhani’s right; India going for MIRV; and When Israel stepped back from the brink.

October 4, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Carrot and stick - In a hearing on Iran’s nuclear program before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Under Secretary of State Wendy Sherman offered the possibility of sanctions relief if Iran takes concrete and verifiable steps to curb its nuclear program. Under Secretary Sherman, the lead U.S. negotiator with Iran, also urged Congress to hold off on passing additional sanctions until after the next round of negotiations is complete. Reuters has the story. http://reut.rs/16JUhFi

--Summarizing the US negotiating position toward Iran: “Come on the 15th of October with concrete, substantive actions that you will take, commitments you will make in a verifiable way, monitoring and verification that you will sign up to, to create some faith that there is reality to this, and our Congress will listen. But I can assure you, if you do not come on the 15th and 16th with that substantive plan that is real and verifiable, our Congress will take action, and we will support them to do so," said Under Secretary Sherman of what she would tell her Iranian counterparts today. http://abcn.ws/GAAkUS

--Written statement from Under Secretary Wendy Sherman to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/15QeqU3

Headlines about the same hearing:

--”No 'Suckers': US Threatens Iran With New Sanctions” by Bradley Klapper and Matthew Lee of AP. http://abcn.ws/GAAkUS

--”US administration urges Congress against new Iran sanctions” by AFP. http://bit.ly/176ekqV

--”U.S. hints Iran could get some sanctions relief if takes steps” by Arshad Mohammed and Timothy Gardner of Reuters. http://reut.rs/16JUhFi

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Hardliner counterreaction - Iranian President Rouhani’s work to thaw relations with the U.S. is sparking a counterreaction from hardliners in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of the guards, said, "Just as [Rouhani] refused to meet Obama, he should also have refused to speak with him on the telephone and should have waited for concrete action by the United States." In another interview, Jafari also said, "If we see errors being made by officials, the revolutionary forces will issue the necessary warnings."

--The Guards fear that warming relations would undermine their anti-american revolutionary ideology, and, more importantly, could damage their business interests if sanctions lifted. Geneive Abdo discusses how Rouhani needs to shore up support at home if his efforts at detente with the United States will hold up against hardliners trying to torpedo a deal. From Al Jazeera. http://alj.am/19pCttf

India MIRVing - “Statements made by Indian defense officials over the past few years about increasing the payload, responsiveness, and accuracy of nuclear ballistic missiles are worrisome signs that India may be designing its way out of its minimum deterrence posture towards one with more warfighting-like capabilities,” writes Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists.

--“Not only does the combination of multiple warheads, increased accuracy, and quick-launch capability challenge the credibility of minimum deterrence. It also sends all the wrong signals about India’s intentions and will almost inevitably trigger weapons developments in the nuclear postures of India’s neighbors.” Full analysis here. http://bit.ly/19mSpCt

Tweet - @ArmsControlWonk: So, when GAO says the USAF is considering "tunnel approaches" to basing a follow-on ICBM, this is what they mean. http://bit.ly/19ZebHj

Speed reads:

--”What a war in 1973 can tell us about handling Iran in 2013” by David Ignatius in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/18YAA8P

--”Iran, Congress, Israel: Can Obama Bring All Three Together?” by Dov Zakheim in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1a6vibA

--”United States Lagging on New START Implementation” by Greg Thielmann in Arms Control Now. http://bit.ly/1hq1p93

History lesson - 40 years ago during a pitched moment in the Yom Kippur War, Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Dayan asked Prime Minister Golda Meir to authorize preparation for the use of Israel’s nuclear weapons.

--According to new historical research, Prime Minister Meir did not bring Israel to the nuclear brink, as often hypothesized, but rather opposed the nuclear option and said that Israeli conventional forces would prevail. Historian Avner Cohen writes about the episode in The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/18BD0eF

Events:

--50th anniversary of JFK signing the Limited Test Ban Treaty. October 7th. http://bit.ly/18FCzPa

--”Rethinking U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy” Discussion with Benjamin Friedman, Christopher Preble and Laura Odato of CATO Institute. Oct. 8th at noon in the Rayburn House Office Building. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1dS3evw