Balancing a Syria Response and the Iran Opportunity

On the radar: Syria complicated, Iran ripe for breakthrough; Sanctions eased; Dual tracking Syria; Pakistan’s transition; Rouhani’s window; and Aegis and THAAD pick off two missiles.

September 11, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Priorities - Few expect either military strikes or the recent diplomatic proposal aimed at destroying Syria’s chemical weapons cache to end the broader civil war in Syria. “While the US may not be able to orchestrate a decisive shift in the civil war, another vexed issue for U.S. diplomats may be ripe for a breakthrough – Iran’s nuclear program,” writes Ryan Costello at CNN.

--Three obstacles could jeopardize the opportunity with Iran. US military action in Syria, the administration’s “risk-averse approach to negotiations” and Congressional hawks could all threaten the potential for nuclear talks with Tehran. “While these are formidable obstacles, they are not insurmountable. If the president makes a nuclear deal with Iran a top priority, he may be able to capitalize on Iran’s diplomatic opening,” writes Costello. Full post here. http://ow.ly/oLXEW

Eased sanctions - The Obama administration eased sanctions humanitarian and goodwill activities with Iran this week, marking “at least the second time” the US has relaxed sanctions since the election of Iranian president Hassan Rouhani earlier this summer. The eased sanctions would make it easier “to expedite the provision of health services, disaster relief, wildlife conservation and human rights projects in the country,” reports Rick Gladstone of The New York Times.

--“Today’s action is critical in helping prevent broad sanctions from isolating ordinary Iranians and ensuring that humanitarian needs of ordinary people do not fall prey to political disputes between the U.S. and Iranian governments. In lieu of formal diplomatic relations between the two governments, people-to-people diplomacy and athletic exchanges are crucial for bridging divides between the American and Iranian people," said Jamal Abdi of the National Iranian American Council. Full story here. http://nyti.ms/15RtcQe

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ICYMI Remarks by the President in Address to the Nation on Syria. Transcript. http://1.usa.gov/18PIvVw

A potential strategy - ”The president should announce a dual-track policy: He will accept Syria's offer to negotiate a verifiable renunciation of Syria's WMD programs, while at the same time seeking authorization from Congress in response to the massacre at Ghouta. As commander-in-chief, he can hold strikes in abeyance, giving the diplomatic track with Syria and the United Nations enough time to succeed. If negotiations collapse, the United States will have forces in place and legal authorization for a prompt effort to degrade Syria's capabilities and punish the Assad regime,” writes Jeffrey Lewis.

--Full Post: “Pick a Card, Any Card: How Brian Eno explains Obama's Syria policy.” http://atfp.co/1802Sgz

--See also: “Syria CW Elimination Modalities” at Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/1d5N6WR

Statement - “Ploughshares Fund Deplores the Use of Chemical Weapons.” http://bit.ly/1fZZszt

Transition - On Sunday, after five years as Pakistan’s president, Asif Ali Zardari completed his term, and Pakistan swore in its next President, Mamnoon Hussain. “This was the first time that an elected Pakistani president had completed his term; most others were overthrown or forced to resign. It was a remarkable development in a fragile nation not known for peaceful transitions,” writes The New York Times in an editorial.

--Looking ahead: ”It is vitally important that Mr. Hussain, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the military, headed by Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, work together to strengthen democratic processes. Mr. Kayani, probably the most powerful man in the country, should step down as planned in November and be replaced by someone who will continue to decrease the army role in politics,” writes the Times. Full post here. http://nyti.ms/17qiUDs

Tweet - @MaloneySuzanne: Check out my new Brookings Essay: #Iran Surprises Itself & The World http://t.co/xgj34KECa2

Rouhani remarks - Iran is "ready for the win-win game. [but] the world should know that the period for solving the nuclear case will not be unlimited," said Iranian president Hassan Rouhani in remarks televised on state TV. Nasser Karimi at AP has the story. http://ow.ly/oLW7E

Testing - On Monday, the Pentagon completed a missile defense test in which two missile were detected, tracked and intercepted - one missile intercepted by a SM3-IA interceptor from an Aegis destroyer with the other intercepted by a THAAD interceptor. Rachel Oswald with Global Security Newswire has the story. http://ow.ly/oM1hc

Events:

--”U.S.-Iran Reconciliation Under President Rouhani?” Haleh Esfandiari, Robert Einhorn, Kenneth Katzman. Moderated by Barbara Slavin. September 12, 9:30 AM @ the Atlantic Council. Details here. http://ow.ly/ow8uO

--”Trident Alternatives: What Next for British Nuclear Forces?” Danny Alexander, UK. Chief Secretary to the Treasury. September 11, 2:00-3:00 PM. Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium. Details here. http://ow.ly/oHAYu