Luers, Pickering & Walsh: Opportunity for New Approach With Iran

On the radar: Path for diplomatic solution; Why GMD is failing; North Korean ship stopped in Panama; and Army discovers radioactive waste that the Air Force left in its backyard.

July 17, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Big read - ”If the United States is to reach an agreement with Iran about its nuclear program, Washington will have to develop new approaches to thinking about Iran. The administration should recall JFK’s charge fifty years ago for Americans ‘not to see only a distorted and desperate view of the other side, not to see conflict as inevitable, accommodation as impossible, and communication as nothing more than an exchange of threats.’ There is yet time for diplomacy, but the longer real negotiations are delayed, the greater is the risk of conflict in the increasingly violent environment of the Middle East,” write William Luers, Thomas Pickering and Jim Walsh.

--Two events - Iran’s election of a moderate president, Hassan Rouhani, and the turmoil in Syria - have created opportunities and incentives for the U.S. and Iran to secure a diplomatic solution. These opportunities “are not likely to appear again. This is very much the year to achieve the goal set out by President Obama four years ago of “honest engagement” leading to success,” write the authors.

--The authors “recommend a renewed diplomatic path for achieving mutually acceptable limits on Iran’s nuclear program—limits that provide reliable insurance that Tehran will not acquire nuclear weapons.” They write, “We do not underestimate the risks, internationally or domestically, of taking this approach. Yet we are convinced that the current trajectory presents higher risks and possibly catastrophic costs.”

--Read the full article: “For a New Approach to Iran” by William Luers, Thomas Pickering and Jim Walsh in The New York Review of Books. http://bit.ly/15GrkEu

Quote - “The authors make a persuasive case that Iran and the international community have a unique opportunity to resolve peacefully long-standing issues of Iran’s nuclear program and its role in the broader Middle East. With courage and creativity, it may be possible for both sides to devise a credible roadmap that, step-by-step, would resolve legitimate concerns of all the parties,” said Brent Scowcroft of the above article.

Swing and a miss - “The Real Reasons for the GMD Testing Delays and Problems” by George Lewis at Mostly Missile Defense. http://bit.ly/12VlX2e

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: Durbin at Sen Approps hearing: I'm trying to reconcile appetite for Congress to spend more money on missile defense with dismal test record.

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Engagement - “Squandering any opportunity for détente has been the norm in US-Iran relations during the past three decades. Iranians missed a major opening when President Obama came to power in 2009. Americans...should avoid a redux with Iran’s President-elect Hassan Rouhani,” writes Ali Vaez in The Christian Science Monitor. http://bit.ly/13vMT7D

North Korean ship - Panamanian authorities stopped a North Korean-flagged ship headed from Cuba to North Korea carrying components of a surface-to-air missile system.

--”The North Korean ship was transporting what U.S. officials believe was the fire-control radar system from an SA-2 used for targeting,” the same kind of system that was used to shoot down Gary Powers’ U-2 spy plane in 1960. Alistair Gale, Dan Molinski and Julian Barnes have the story for The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/15GmOG7

Cuba’s statement - “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs wishes to inform that said vessel sailed from a Cuban port to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, mainly loaded with 10,000 Tons of sugar. In addition, the above mentioned vessel transported 240 metric tons of obsolete defensive weapons –two anti-aircraft missile complexes Volga and Pechora, nine missiles in parts and spares, two Mig-21 Bis and 15 motors for this type of airplane, all of it manufactured in the mid-twentieth century- to be repaired and returned to Cuba.” From the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. http://bit.ly/18kWNhT

Speed reads -

--”Let’s End Bogus Missile Defense Testing” by Yousaf Butt in Reuters. http://reut.rs/17laFro

--”U.S. Should Take the Lead in Reducing Nuclear Danger” by William Lambers in the Albuquerque Journal. http://bit.ly/13jiPR2

--”U.K. Finds ‘Credible’ Alternatives to Submarine Nukes Won’t Come Cheap” by Elaine Grossman in Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/14YP47W

Events:

--”NUKEMAP 3D: The Next Generation of Do-It-Yourself Nuclear War” Discussion with Alex Wellerstein at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies. July 18 from 10:00am-11:30am. Details here. http://bit.ly/12Gw9iA

--”Contemporary Role of US Nuclear Weapons” Luncheon talk with Barry Blechman and Robert Butterworth, part of the Peter Huessy Breakfast Series. July 25th from 12:30-1:30pm at the Capitol Hill Club. RSVP here. http://conta.cc/149kH0N

Dessert:

Dig and bury - A retired airman notified the Army that one of its storage buildings at Fort Bliss was once used to handle nuclear weapons. Upon investigation, it became apparent that objects in the the building today still show low level alpha and beta particles.

--How it happened: The Air Force’s Strategic Air Command used buildings in what was then named Fort Biggs in the 1950s and 1960s. When the work was done, the Air Force painted the building in epoxy paint to trap any radioactive contamination - but not before burying radioactive material in sealed containers 12-18 inches below the ground. From Julian Barnes in The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/16J94JM