Moving Beyond Cold War Nuclear Postures

On the radar: The speech; The fact sheets; Reactions from the wonks, the supporters and the opponents; Welcome Mary Lloyd Estrin; Assessing Iran’s new president; $10+ billion warheads becoming the norm; MOX breeding proliferation; and Iran’s new president gets The Onion treatment.

June 24, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

President’s speech - “We may no longer live in fear of global annihilation, but so long as nuclear weapons exist, we are not truly safe...So today, I’m announcing additional steps forward. After a comprehensive review, I’ve determined that we can ensure the security of America and our allies, and maintain a strong and credible strategic deterrent, while reducing our deployed strategic nuclear weapons by up to one-third. And I intend to seek negotiated cuts with Russia to move beyond Cold War nuclear postures.”

--At the same time, we’ll work with our NATO allies to seek bold reductions in U.S. and Russian tactical weapons in Europe. And we can forge a new international framework for peaceful nuclear power, and reject the nuclear weaponization that North Korea and Iran may be seeking.

--”America will host a summit in 2016 to continue our efforts to secure nuclear materials around the world, and we will work to build support in the United States to ratify the CTBT, and call on all nations to begin negotiations on a treaty that ends the production of fissile materials for nuclear weapons,” said President Obama in a speech at Berlin’s historic Brandenburg Gate last week. Full remarks here. http://ow.ly/mkkEL

Video - Watch the president’s speech at the Brandenburg Gate. http://goo.gl/mG1N7

What changed? -

--The President’s announcement implies that the U.S. is ready to reduce to 1,000-1,100 deployed strategic warheads.
--The President’s new guidance directs the Pentagon to examine and reduce the role of launch under attack planning, while retaining such capability.
--The new guidance also reaffirms practice of “counterforce” nuclear targeting, directs the Pentagon to strengthen non-nuclear deterrent capabilities and implements a new approach to the U.S. stockpile of “hedge” warheads.
--Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists assesses the new announcement here. http://goo.gl/93U9g

--The new plan to reduce to 1,000-1,100 deployed strategic warheads “is, more or less, the same offer that the United States made [to Russia] five years ago during the negotiations that led to the New START treaty,” notes Jeffrey Lewis in a discussion on how the U.S. is adjusting its nuclear posture and if it can afford to retain the status quo. From Foreign Policy. http://goo.gl/XtDLf

--White House Fact Sheet: “Nuclear Weapons Employment Strategy of the United States” http://goo.gl/RqVz3

--Pentagon report to Congress: “Report on Nuclear Employment Strategy of the United States.” (pdf) http://goo.gl/XtDLf

--The U.S. and Russia also signed a new legal framework that would build upon the Nunn-Lugar program and allow the two countries to continue their work on cooperative threat reduction. State Dept. press release here. http://goo.gl/gKbKy

How it played -

--”Ploughshares Fund Welcomes President Obama’s Call to Action on Nuclear Weapons Security.” http://goo.gl/4s2Id

--The speech laid out a “sensible agenda.” Reducing the arsenal by one-third below New START levels “is a logical next step in the process of moving U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces to lower and more reasonable levels 20 years after the end of the Cold War...The main question is whether President Putin will engage,” writes Steven Pifer at Brookings. http://ow.ly/mksC2

--”The President’s announcement...recognizes that if we are to protect America and its allies by confronting and defeating the enemies of today, we must invest in the weapons of today and strengthen regional and strategic stability, not cling to the Cold War mentality of the past,” said Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA). http://goo.gl/XQ2Ox

--”I support the president’s call to renew negotiations with Russia to reduce deployed strategic nuclear weapons by one-third, from 1,550 to around 1,000...It is my strong belief that the world will be better off without an unnecessarily high number of these powerful weapons,” said Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA). http://goo.gl/dokW4

--“President Obama’s latest nuclear weapons proposals, announced last week in Berlin, were a disappointing example of what happens when soaring vision collides with the reality of obstructive Republican senators, a recalcitrant Russia and a convergence of regional crises,” writes The New York Times editorial board. http://goo.gl/khQGo

--“While [the president’s] remarks are overdue and welcome, the pace and scope of his proposals for further nuclear reductions are incremental at best and changes in the U.S. nuclear war plan are less than meets the eye,” writes Daryl Kimball in Foreign Policy. http://ow.ly/mknot

--The Wall Street Journal did not like the speech. http://goo.gl/OOX0y

--John Bolton and Paula DeSutter also did not like the speech, but use the hook to talk about how they want to block implementation of New START. In Foreign Policy. http://goo.gl/VHhEF

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Welcome Mary Lloyd Estrin Ploughshares Fund is pleased to announce the election of Mary Lloyd Estrin of Los Angeles, CA as the new chair of the board of directors. “Mary brings strong leadership to our organization as we work to promote innovation and new thinking on ways to reduce the nuclear threat,” said Executive Director Philip Yun.

--We also thank Roger Hale, our outgoing Chairman of the Board, for his many years of leadership. “Roger Hale has been a phenomenal leader, bringing us to new heights over the last 8 years,” said Joe Cirincione. Press release here. http://goo.gl/Jl4du

Iran’s new president - Hassan Rouhani “a cleric and moderate politician who enjoyed reformist backing, took more than 50% of the vote” in Iran’s recent presidential election. Compared to Ahmadinejad, “Rouhani is more likely to at least speak more diplomatically to internal and external challengers,” writes Ben Brumfield at CNN. Full story here. http://ow.ly/mkw9t

2013 Election commentary -

--The outcome of the Iranian presidential election, offers the “Obama administration a once-in-a-lifetime chance to end the atomic stalemate in Iran.” Unfortunately, the unique opportunity for negotiations, could be jeopardized by “false impressions” perpetrated by extremists both countries’ political establishments, write Seyed Hossein Mousavian and Mohammad Ali Shabani in The New York Times. http://goo.gl/sJsFV

--“Regime Change Obama Can Believe In: Iran just opened itself to a nuclear deal -- but America has to make the first move.” by Vali Nasr in Foreign Policy. http://goo.gl/MpNK1

--“The U.S. needs to give Rowhani and the more progressive side of the Iranian populace a chance to reform their system and tame the radicals. The last thing Rowhani needs is an American military intrusion that would cause Iranians to rally around the old guard. Instead, the Obama administration needs to mount an all-out diplomatic offensive to see if this small bit of good news can lead to something even better,” writes David Horsey at The Los Angeles Times. http://ow.ly/mkAZu

Stockpile report - “Fiscal Year 2014 Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan,” by the Department of Energy. June, 2013. (pdf) http://goo.gl/dzNge

SIREN - According to the above report, “NNSA, at the direction of the Nuclear Weapons Council, has adopted a long-term "3+2" strategy to consolidate the current stockpile of seven different warhead types into five unique systems. ...Pursuant to this strategy, NNSA is proposing to spend at least $60 billion (!!) over the next 25 years on 5 major warhead life extension programs. That's right: over $60 billion,” writes Kingston Reif at Nukes of Hazard.

--Price check: $8 billion for the B61 bomb, $14 billion for the W78/88-1 warhead, $14 billion for the W87/88 warhead, $12 billion for the W76-1, and $12 billion for the W80-0 warhead. Analysis here. http://goo.gl/rduuS

Proliferation through nonproliferation - The U.S. has spent more than $3 billion to build a troubled plutonium fuel plant, all to implement a convoluted plutonium disposition agreement with the Russians that could allow Russia to emerge with more plutonium - not less. Douglas Birch and Jeffrey Smith at The Center for Public Integrity have the report in part one of its series on the failing Mixed Oxide fuel facility. http://goo.gl/XlFEt

Tweet - @ReutersWorld: World worried about nuclear terrorism, but little action at talks. reut.rs/10NsjoW

Report - “Turning the Page: Reimagining the National Labs in the 21st Century Innovation Economy” by Matthew Stepp of ITIF, Sean Pool of the Center for American Progress and Nick Loris and Jack Spencer of the Heritage Foundation. (pdf) http://goo.gl/j24Of

Speed reads -

--“Upgrading B61 Nuclear Bomb Doesn’t Make Sense” by Jacob Bennett and Usha Sahay in The Knoxville News Sentinel. http://goo.gl/jrhUq

--”Cyberwar and the Nuclear Option” by Elbridge Colby in The National Interest. http://goo.gl/am4Ak

Events:

--”North Korean Nuclear, Missile, and Space Programs: Imagery Brief and Policy Options With Joel Wit,” June 25, 12:30-2:00 PM @ The American Security Project, 1100 New York Ave. 7th Floor West Tower. Details here. http://ow.ly/mkBPA

--”Give Peace a Chance: Preventing Mass Violence.” Sen. Richard Lugar and David Hamburg. June 27, 11:30 AM @ American Association for the Advancement of Science, second floor auditorium, 1200 New York Ave. Details here. http://ow.ly/mkSzW

Dessert:

Rowhani in The Onion - “New Iranian President Really Impressed with Country’s Nuclear Arms Program,” quips The Onion. http://onion.com/18aRvbl