IAEA Report: Iran’s Nuclear Program Expanding

On the radar: Centrifuges and stockpiles; Latest sanctions; Sorting N. Korea’s threats; Is the Musdan real; Killing MEADS; and Boldly going where few science projects have gone before.

May 23, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

IAEA report - The IAEA released its latest report on Iran’s nuclear program. Key findings: Installation of IR-1 centrifuges increased, but at slower pace; Arak nearing completion; IR-2m installation increased; Cascades producing 20% LEU steady; Stockpile of 20% LEU growing slowly, even while Iran continues to convert some for reactor fuel.

--Full analysis from the Institute for Science and International Security. (pdf) http://bit.ly/Z2GAuI

Bottom line - “The report findings underscore the urgent need to intensify negotiations with Tehran to resolve the political questions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and to resolve the outstanding questions regarding the potential military dimensions of the program, but, at the same time, the findings reinforce earlier assessments that Iran remains years away from obtaining a deliverable nuclear arsenal,” write Kelsey Davenport, Daryl Kimball and Greg Thielmann. Full analysis at Arms Control Now. http://bit.ly/10VFC0T

--Full Board of Governors report: “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran.” May 22, 2013. http://bit.ly/16UihVf

How it played - “Iran Is Seen Advancing Nuclear Bid” by David Sanger and William Broad in The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/10OngOj

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Sanctions - The House Foreign Affairs Committee approved legislation that increase sanctions on Tehran by curbing “oil exports, limiting Tehran’s access to overseas foreign currency reserves, and expanding the list of blacklisted Iranian companies.” http://owl.li/lk4GZ

2013 “Election” - “Nuclear program to sinking economy: Issues facing Iran as presidential election looms.” Backgrounder from AP. http://wapo.st/12xFZ3k

Report - “Although the intensity of the crisis [with North Korea] is now waning, North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear and missile capabilities continues, and its political isolation from the international community deepens. It is high time to sort out the nature of the threat and reconsider what can be done about it,” writes Greg Thielmann in a new assessment of North Korea’s capabilities.

--”Sorting out the Nuclear and Missile Threats from North Korea” from the Arms Control Association. (pdf) http://bit.ly/16Qunhv

Missile or mockup? - Many experts doubt whether North Korea possesses real versions of the Musudan intermediate-range missile mockups it paraded in public last year. The U.S. intelligence community, however, seems to believe the Musudan is real, based on recent reports. Jeffrey Lewis argues there isn’t enough information to reject the view that the missile is real. Full post at Arms Control Wonk. http://owl.li/lk71g

Tweet - @ReutersWorld: Top Chinese leader urges North Korea envoy to work toward denuclearization. http://reut.rs/ZfF2zS

Things you can see from space - ”Iran Laying Asphalt at the Suspect Parchin Site” from ISIS. (pdf) http://bit.ly/10VEiex

Tweet - @BulletinAtomic: The potential and pitfalls of societal verification: #armscontrol verification by citizens with smartphones. bit.ly/11SQQEq

MEADS - Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-CA) announced her intention to, at long last, kill the troubled Medium Extended Air Defense System. The Pentagon has no plans to buy a single unit of the multi-billion dollar system, but keeps finding money for it in order to avoid fees for terminating the contract. Going bet is that Rep. Sanchez will offer an amendment to kill MEADS in the House Armed Services Committee markup of the defense authorization bill. http://bit.ly/16bsfBB

Events:

--Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and NATO officials meet with Russian officials to discuss missile defense. Moscow. May 23-24.

--"Nuclear Terrorism: What’s at Stake?" Jay Cohen, David Waller, Stephen Flynn, Stanton Sloane. May 29 8:00-9:30 am. American Security Project. 1100 New York Ave, NW, Seventh Floor, West Tower. Details here. http://owl.li/lcEuT

--”The Kaleidoscope Turns Again in a Crisis-Challenged Iran,” Yasmin Alem and Suzanne Maloney, moderated by Barbara Slavin. May 30, 12:00-1:30 pm @ The Atlantic Council. Details here. http://owl.li/l8cYq

--”Ballistic Missile Defense- Technical, Strategic and Arms Control Challenges.” Discussion with Phil Coyle, George Lewis and Bruce MacDonald, Pierce Corden and Charles Ferguson to moderate. June 6th from 4:45-7:00pm at AAAS, reception to follow. Details here. http://bit.ly/188gZ90

Dessert:

Blockbuster meets budget buster - The National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore National Lab had a cameo in Star Trek: Into the Darkness as the warp core for the Starship Enterprise. The cast and crew from the film, commenting on their chance to film there, offer glowing praise for the massive laser facility and its goal of nuclear fusion.

--However, NIF’s primary goal is actually to better simulate nuclear weapons explosions - not create limitless, clean energy. Worse, “it is years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget, it has thus far failed to ignite the fusion reaction for which it was built, and there is a growing acceptance that it probably will never be able to generate a fusion reaction that produces more energy than was required to initiate it,” writes Stephen Schwartz in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/11eRy2z