Balancing Pressure and Diplomacy with Iran

On the radar: Pickering, Luers, Lugar, Hayden and others on Iran; POTUS on DPRK; Brooks on nuclear policy; Reality check on missile defense; Tehran’s technology; View from Korean Peninsula; ICBM budget; and After upheaval, what happens to the nukes?

April 17, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Report - “The United States should now dedicate as much energy and creativity to negotiating directly with Iran as it has to assembling a broad international coalition to pressure and isolate Iran. Only by taking such a rebalanced approach might the United States achieve its objectives with respect to Iran’s nuclear program,” says a new report from the Iran Project.

--The report recommends that the U.S. pursue bilateral negotiations with Iran in parallel to multilateral talks, while offering some measure of sanctions relief as part of a negotiated settlement that sets verifiable limits on Iran’s nuclear program.

--Report signers include: Amb. Pickering, Amb. Luers, Sen. Lugar, Gen. Hayden, Amb. Crocker, Rep. Lee Hamilton, Anne-Marie Slaughter, Zbigbiew Brzezinski, Jessica Mathews, and many more.

--Full report here: “Strategic Options for Iran: Balancing Pressure With Diplomacy.” PDF via scribd. http://bit.ly/11uyE5h

Quote -”Iran has yet to make the political decision to make nuclear weapons. They have a basic capability but they haven't crossed that line...So this is precisely the moment where diplomacy is important,” said MIT professor and Iran Project report signer Jim Walsh. Julian Barnes of The Wall Street Journal previewed the report here. http://on.wsj.com/1002Lh6

Tweet - @plough_shares: For those not in DC, you can watch @IranProject2013 report launch live here at 1:00 pm ET http://t.co/TJ3GTt1eNC

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Presidential perspective - “Based on our current intelligence assessments, we do not think that [North Korea] has the capacity’ to fit a warhead atop a missile,” said President Obama in an interview with NBC News’ Savannah Gutherie.

--“North Korea will probably make more provocative moves over the next several weeks, but our hope is we can contain it and we can move into a different phase, in which they try to work through diplomatically some of these issues,” said the president. David Sanger and Michael Gordon of The New York Times have the story. http://owl.li/k9lSo

Event recap - “The Future of the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent: A Conversation with Amb. Linton Brooks.” Listen to yesterday’s discussion at the American Security Project. http://owl.li/k9x0g

Expensive and ineffective - The White House is looking to increase spending on Ground-based Midcourse missile defense system (GMD) in response to North Korea’s posturing, stating with confidence that the system could handle a North Korean missile. This approach is wrongheaded and foolish, writes Laura Grego in Politico.

--In reality, “the Pentagon has no idea whether the system could stop a North Korean missile,” writes Grego. The system has failed nearly half its intercept tests, has never been tested against an intercontinental-range missile, and the system cannot handle decoys and countermeasures that could easily fool it. This leaves the system as mostly “an expensive symbolic gesture.” Full op-ed here. http://politi.co/Z335jC

Tweet - @ForeignPolicy: Map: Epicenter of quake misses Iran's nuclear sites. http://atfp.co/10aqH8I

Forging ahead - Iran has tripled the number of IR-2M centrifuges installed at its Natanz facility - from 180 to more than 600 machines in the last three months - according to diplomats. Iran has recently indicated that it plans to install 3,000 of the advanced centrifuges. George Jahn at AP has the story. http://owl.li/k9nrW

On the ground - “We are not seeing any large-scale troop movements, we are not seeing large-scale exercises...We’re seeing nothing in the DPRK that suggests that anything is going to threaten the ROK...We’re seeing nothing to back up any kind of hostile actions that the DPRK used to take,” a U.S. military official said Monday. Song Sang-ho has the story at The Korea Herald. http://owl.li/k9sqc

Missile money - The US defense budget request for the upcoming fiscal year includes funding to modernize and maintain the ICBM force through 2030. Jenn Rowell at the Great Falls Tribune has the story. http://owl.li/k9tkl

CRS Report - “Next Steps in Nuclear Arms Control with Russia: Issues for Congress” by Amy Woolf of the Congressional Research Service. April 10, 2013. http://bit.ly/11uguAE

Tweet - @RANDCorporation: When armies divide during internal upheavals, what happens to nuclear weapons? trib.al/Hh3T8SP

Events:

--Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water, hearing on the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) budget, with Neile Miller, Acting Administrator, NNSA. April 17, 2:30 p.m. @ 192 Dirksen Senate Office Building. Webcast here. http://owl.li/k4EOP

--Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, hearing on nuclear forces and policies, with Madelyn Creedon, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Global Strategic Affairs; Andrew Weber, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Defense Programs; and six military officials. April 17, 2:30 p.m. @ 222 Russell Senate Office Building. Webcast here. http://owl.li/k4FDt

--”Strategic Options for Iran: Balancing Pressure With Diplomacy.” Amb. William Luers, Amb. James Dobbins, Amb. Thomas Pickering, James Walsh and Carla Hills. April 17 12:15-2:00 p.m. @ Wilson Center. Details here. http://owl.li/k4GDo

--”War With Iran,” Michael Eisenstadt, Suzanne Maloney and Geoffrey Kemp. April 18 12:00-1:45 p.m. @ Center for National Interest