Broken Missile Defenses and Clever Politics

On the radar: Interceptors that can’t intercept; Nowruz statement; Talks in Turkey; Fallback options; How to reach a deal with Iran; New WH coordinator on WMD; and Maj. Kong as a young child.

March 19, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Buying the flawed, cancelling the unhelpful - The administration’s recent announcement that it would spend $1 billion on 14 additional ground-based interceptors (GBIs) was “a clever move. It sent a strong signal to North Korea -- and to China. It reassured close allies Japan and South Korea. It won praise from Republican opponents and generated great newspaper headlines: ‘U.S. beefs up missile defenses." Too bad, “the interceptors do not work,” writes Joe Cirincione in Foreign Policy

--Despite its hefty price tag ($40 billion) the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system is rife with technical and operational issues - it hasn’t had a successful intercept test since 2008. Its interceptors can easily be foiled by countermeasures. Worse, in some tests the missile failed to even leave the silo.

--Silver lining: Sec. Hagel said that the Pentagon will only move forward with the new GBIs once its sure there’s a real need, and most experts agree a North Korean ICBM threat is not imminent. Further, the announced cancellation of phase four of missile defense plans in Europe could open the way for a new round of reductions with Russia. Full article here. http://goo.gl/3MruU

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Troubled - How flawed are the Ground Based Interceptors (GBIs)? Ten of them are currently deployed with a CE-II kill vehicle, which is 0-2 on flight tests thanks to a defective part. The Pentagon announced it plans to flight test the CE-II before deploying more. However, even if successful, overhauling the ten deployed CE-IIs in Alaska and California is expected to cost about $18 million each. George Lewis at Mostly Missile Defense has the analysis. http://bit.ly/134PEDa

Tweet - @nytimesworld: China returns to protective stance on North Korea in response to U.S. plans for more missile defense http://nyti.ms/15W5nST

Nowruz and negotiations - ”The United States prefers to resolve this matter peacefully, diplomatically. Indeed, if—as Iran’s leaders say—their nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, then there is a basis for a practical solution. It’s a solution that would give Iran access to peaceful nuclear energy while resolving once and for all the serious questions that the world has about the true nature of the Iranian nuclear program,” said President Obama in his annual statement to on Nowruz.

--”The United States, alongside the rest of the international community, is ready to reach such a solution. Now is the time for the Iranian government to take immediate and meaningful steps to reduce tensions and work toward an enduring, long-term settlement of the nuclear issue [...] This is the choice now before Iran’s leaders. I hope they choose a better path.” Full statement here. http://goo.gl/bJ4UK

Talks update - Technical experts from Iran and world powers met in Istanbul yesterday in a follow-up to last month’s talks. Experts from P5+1 member states, “led by nuclear expert Stephen Klement gave Iran further details of the ‘revised confidence-building proposal,” presented to Iran in the Almaty negotiations.

--While details remain unclear, western officials suggest the proposal includes sanctions relief - in particular sanctions on precious metals and petrochemical products - if Iran suspends uranium enrichment to 20 percent at its Fordow facility. Political-level talks will resume in Almaty in early April. Full story here. http://goo.gl/QjFA5

Tweet - @AFGSC_CC: On this day in 1954, the first B-52A rolled off the production line. http://t.co/SIJZOnmLKz

Tweet - @ACapaccio: B-52 Bomber Flew Over South Korea in Training, Pentagon Says http://t.co/xXaqSbKFp3

The unspoken options on the table - “If Iran ever did cross the nuclear weapons threshold, the United States would do what it has always done when an adversary went nuclear: It would fall back on containment and deterrence. We would extend our far more potent nuclear umbrella over key regional allies, and we would send clear and unmistakable messages to Tehran about the dire consequences that would befall them if their new arsenal were ever used by anyone,” writes Stephen Walt at Foreign Policy.

--”This situation would not be ideal, which is why I favor intelligent diplomacy that reduces Iran's incentive to acquire a deterrent...But declaring that Washington will never use containment or deterrence isn't credible, because these options are always there if we need them, and they make a lot more sense than the alternatives.” Full post here. http://owl.li/jdhIN

Strategy for success - The progress achieved at last month’s nuclear talks between the P5+1 member states and Iran in Almaty can be attributed to two factors. The first, crippling multilateral sanctions. The second, a shift in the U.S. negotiating strategy that “gives the Iranians a face-saving way out,” including sanctions relief if Iran suspends its uranium enrichment to 20 percent writes Joe Cirincione in The Interdependent.

--”For this negotiating strategy to succeed, U.S. policy-makers may have to remember three basic points.” (1) Increased pressure, like the recent Nuclear Iran Prevention Act, does not always result in a solution, it can backfire. (2) The military option is not viable. (3) Both sides must be convinced “that these initial steps can be part of a process in which both sides, by compromising, can realize their core objectives,” says Cirincione. Full article here. http://owl.li/jd72q

Transitions - “The National Security Staff's Senior Director for Europe Liz Sherwood-Randall will take up a newly created senior White House post next month, called the White House coordinator for defense policy, countering weapons of mass destruction, and arms control,” reports Josh Rogin of The Cable. Randall will take over the main responsibilities of former White House WMD “Czar” Gary Samore. http://atfp.co/137wih1

Video - “Senator Carl Levin discusses U.S. defense policy and ongoing national security concerns.” From the Council on Foreign Relations. http://on.cfr.org/WT3LZD

Tweet - @CNS_Updates: What happens to the UK deterrent and the international nuke regime if Scotland goes independent? http://owl.li/jdpQi

Events:

--”What Should Obama do on North Korea?” Victor Cha, CSIS; Gen. Walter Sharp, former Commander, U.S. Forces Korea; and Joseph DeTrani, former Special Envoy for Six Party Talks with North Korea. March 21 9:00-10:30 a.m. @ CSIS. Details here. http://owl.li/j9ZzX

--"2013 Public Policy and Nuclear Threats Winter Conference.” Linton Brooks, former administrator, NNSA, and 18 other speakers. March 22-23. @ Univ. of California Washington Center. Details here (pdf). http://owl.li/iVIvo

--”The Impact of Sanctions on Tehran’s Nuclear Calculations.” Bijan Khajehpour, Atieh International; Reza Marashi and Trita Parsi, National Iranian American Council. March 26, 12:00-1:30 p.m. @ Atlantic Council. Details here. http://owl.li/iWWtD

--”Nuclear Priorities 2013.” Anita Friedt, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of Arms Control Verification and Compliance, Department of State. March 27, 12:30-1:30p.m. @ The American Security Project. Details here. http://owl.li/ja0JS

Dessert:

Not a pony - Historian Alex Wellerstein recently found a photo of children riding a bomb casing resembling Fat Man, the nuclear weapon dropped on Nagasaki in 1945. The bomb casing is at the White Sands Missile Range visitor center, if you want to ride it yourself. From The Atlantic. http://owl.li/jdeWR