Rumored Iranian-North Korean Collusion Overblown

On the radar: DPRK test really Iranian-false; Park on North Korea; Pre-negotiation posturing; Nuclear next steps; Danger of comparing to nukes; NNSA Audit; and Atomic artifacts.

February 25, 2013 | Edited by Alyssa Demus

Refuting rumors - The media has been peppered with stories of nuclear cooperation between Pyongyang and Tehran, citing reports that a top Iranian nuclear official was present for North Korea’s recent nuclear test. Yet, when assessing the facts, Jeffrey Lewis finds, “hard evidence [of collusion] is in short supply,” and policies towards either state should not be altered because of the assumed cooperation.

-- “Many of the people pushing the ‘Iranian test’ hypothesis are simply trying to hijack a Northeast Asian crisis for their own preferred policy in the Middle East [...] Iran's interest in North Korea's nuclear program is something worth watching, but VIP visits to test sites simply do not alter the current policy choices regarding Iran. [...] At the end of the day, a North Korean test is simply not the same thing as an Iranian test,” says Lewis in Foreign Policy. http://owl.li/i1mT0

Seoul says - “North Korea’s recent nuclear test is a challenge to the survival and future of the Korean people, and there should be no mistake that the biggest victim will be none other than North Korea itself,” said new South Korean president Park Geun-hye in her inaugural address.

-- President Park’s words and actions are being closely observed as her first moves towards Pyongyang could be an indication of her future North Korea strategy - will she maintain the course of her conservative predecessor, or respond to calls for a more active South Korean role in engaging its northern neighbor asks Choe Sang-Hun of the New York Times? http://owl.li/i1gbh

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Iran’s uranium - According to the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (and reported by the country’s state news agency), Iran has discovered new deposits of raw uranium. The announcement, which has not been independently confirmed, may be an effort to increase Iran’s leverage ahead of the P5+1 talks tomorrow. Reuters reports. http://reut.rs/ZpwfqE

P5+1 expectations - P5+1 talks discussing Iran’s nuclear program are set to being in Almaty, Kazakhstan tomorrow. NPR’s Rachel Martin speaks with Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment about expectations going into these negotiations. http://owl.li/i1sEh

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: Amb. John Limbert, frm hostage in #Iran & DASecState for Iran, calls for #diplomacy to prevent war http://owl.li/i1LyI

Next steps - “Long after the cold war, the United States and Russia still have thousands of weapons they cannot afford and do not need, especially when the threats are militant groups and states like Iran and North Korea.” Now is the time for the president to “follow through with a more sustained commitment” to his long-term vision of a world without nuclear weapons,” says a The New York Times editorial.

--Proposed steps towards this commitment - an informal agreement with Russia for “deeper mutual cuts”; ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT); and de-alerting nuclear forces. Full story here. http://owl.li/i1cs3

Tweet - @NTI_GSN: Obama Can Skirt GOP With Executive Action on Arms Control, Missile Defense http://owl.li/i1MsF

Future for nukes- Our very own Joe Cirincione spoke on nuclear weapons in the past, present, and future: “Fifty Years Since the Cuban Missile Crisis-What the Future Holds for Global Peace and Security.” View his remarks here. http://owl.li/i1BRR

Careful to compare- The force of the recent meteorite explosion was described as that of “30 Hiroshima bombs.” Nuclear explosions are often used as the point of reference for non-nuclear explosive phenomena and natural disasters, and yet doing so is problematic according to atomic historian Alex Wellerstein in an interview with the Atlantic’s Rebecca Rosen.

--”The character of a nuclear blast is not really comparable to a non-nuclear explosion, even when the amounts of force delivered are similar...To only think of an atomic weapon in terms of the kilotons of energy released glosses over the totality of the terror these bombs bring,” reports Rosen. http://owl.li/i1GyF

Report - The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) released its audit report assessing the performance of its contractors in effectively and efficiently accomplishing the agency’s mission since 2007.

--Topline finding - the Office of Inspector General “identified significant implementation issues that adversely affected NNSA’s ability to deploy an effective contractor governance system,” says the report. Full report here. http://owl.li/i1kET

Nuclear legacy - “Both the size and alert levels of the U.S. arsenal are currently based on a war-fighting doctrine formulated during the Cold War,” write Richard Garwin and Lisbeth Gronlund for McClatchy. “President Obama now has the opportunity to take the next sensible steps to reduce the dangers of nuclear weapons. He should move aggressively to do so, and make this a priority for his last term.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/139TJFm

Competition on the subcontinent - Pakistan’s nuclear program has been advancing at a “disturbing” rate, and recent analysis by Indian experts suggest that India has taken notice.

--How to respond? “The most likely - albeit brutally difficult - way to moderate a nuclear competition is through top-down, sustained diplomatic engagement. This condition remains unmet fifteen years after India and Pakistan tested nuclear devices,” writes Michael Krepon at Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/15cPCXk

Events:

--”Iran Nuclear Talks - What Can Be Achieved in 2013,” Featuring Amb. Thomas Pickering, Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Alireza Nader and Daryl Kimball. February 25 2:00-3:30 pm at the Carnegie Endowment. http://bit.ly/XK3XYV

--P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, United Kingdom and United States) resume negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program in Almaty, Kazakhstan on February 26.

--”The ROK-U.S. Alliance in the Pacific Era In Light of North Korea’s Recent Nuclear Test.” Choi Young-jin, South Korean Ambassador. February 27 6:00-8:00 p.m. @ George Washington University, Jack Morton Auditorium. RSVP here. http://owl.li/hVcph

--Automatic budget cuts (sequester) go into effect March 1.

--”Understanding the Behavior of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Mohsen Milani, Univ. of Southern Florida; Bijan Khajehpour, Atieh International. March 4 9:00-11:00 a.m. @ Carnegie Endowment. RSVP here. http://owl.li/i1F0C

--”Confronting the Bomb: Pakistani and Indian Scientists Speak Out.” Pervez Hoodbhoy, Zia Mian, George Perkovich. March 5 9:00-10:30 a.m. @ Carnegie Endowment WDC. Register here. http://owl.li/hY13n

Dessert:

Bombshell - Need a “powerful [daily] reminder of how sex appeal and atomic energy were once inseparable Cold War ingredients”? For a mere 199K, you can be the proud owner of an 8 ft. bronze statue of “Miss Atomic Bomb” complete with her mushroom cloud bathing suit. Advertised on Ebay here. http://owl.li/i1zxL