Realizing the Benefits of the Test Ban

On the radar: Amb. Pickering on CTBT; Iran increasing conversion; Gallucci on North Korea; B61 budget delays; Lt. Gen. Kowalski on deterrence; Afflicted authoritarian arsenals; Dealing with radiation; and Inside Fukushima.

Ratify then reap - The U.S. is “acting within the framework of the responsibilities of the Comprehensive Test Ban treaty” (CTBT) without “reaping the [treaty’s] full security benefits in return.” Its time for the U.S. to ratify the CTBT and take the lead on the treaty’s implementation says Amb. Thomas Pickering in the Christian Science Monitor.

--Amb. Pickering notes that ratification and implementation would: increase the U.S. and other’s leverage in their efforts against Iran and North Korea’s nuclear programs, reduce regional tensions between India and Pakistan as well as India and China, bolster security in Asia, and strengthen the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. http://owl.li/hV0Jz

Conversion and enrichment - A new IAEA report to be released later this week will show that Iran’s has slowed the growth of its 20% enriched uranium stockpile by increasing its conversion of 20% uranium to fuel.

--”If confirmed in the quarterly report, the development could help buy time for big power diplomacy to try and find a negotiated settlement to a decade-old dispute that has stirred fears of a new Middle East war,” writes Fredrik Dahl for Reuters. http://owl.li/hUVEB

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Engaging N. Korea - ”However one characterizes the policy we have pursued over the last 20 years – engagement, containment – it has failed to reduce the threat posed by North Korea to the security of the region. [...] Exploring the North Korean position, carefully testing the North to discern its intentions, engaging diplomatically to see if tensions can genuinely be reduced and a political settlement found is the best way to proceed,” said Amb. Robert Gallucci in a keynote speech on the state of U.S. relations with North Korea and the need to re-engage Pyongyang. Full remarks here. http://owl.li/hV9hI

Money pit - Production and delivery of the refurbished B61 nuclear weapon will be delayed due to likely budgetary constraints, announced the National Nuclear Security Administration this week. “The B61 [Life Extension Program] is already the most expensive and complex warhead modernization program since the Cold War, with cost estimates ranging from $8 billion to more than $10 billion, up from $4 billion in 2010,” notes Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists. http://owl.li/hV4GD

Tweet - @armscontrolnow: O'Hanlon: U.S. can reduce SSBN fleet fr 12 to 8 & can scale back costly B61 n-bomb program, save billions. We agree. http://owl.li/hVjJs

Bigger picture deterrence - ”Strategic deterrence is economic deterrence, it’s cyber deterrence, it’s space. There is a much smaller piece of nuclear deterrence. During the Cold War we couldn’t use economics as a way to deter the Soviets because there was no leverage. Today, economics is part of the calculus,” says Lt. Gen. James Kowalski, Commander of U.S. Global Strike Command.

--Lt. Gen. Kowalski discusses B-2 replacement, missile defense, budget constraints, the Minuteman III follow-on, and deterrence in a multipolar world with Popular Mechanic’s Joe Pappalardo. http://owl.li/hUXr2

Tweet - @wellerstein: Rapatronic images of the first nanoseconds of the Greenhouse GEORGE (1951) fireball. From the Hansen docs. http://owl.li/hVlSJ

Realistic redlines - Last month, Israeli intelligence officials revised earlier assessments that projected that Iran would would possess a nuclear weapons capability by 2013, now saying the date is closer to 2015 or 2016. Why do US and Israeli estimates of Iran’s program keep slipping into the future?

--”U.S. and Israeli intelligence services have failed to appreciate the weakness of Iran's nuclear weapons program, they have not adjusted their analytical models accordingly.” U.S. and Israeli estimates fail to account for factors endemic to authoritarian regimes - “top-down mismanagement” and “political agendas” - which complicate the already challenging process of developing a nuclear weapon. Thus, “what is needed is a fundamental rethinking,” writes Jacques E. C. Hymans in Foreign Affairs. http://owl.li/hViUX

Events:

--”Iran Nuclear Talks - What Can Be Achieved in 2013,” Featuring Amb. Thomas Pickering, Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Alireza Nader and Daryl Kimball. February 25 2:00-3:30 pm at the Carnegie Endowment. http://bit.ly/XK3XYV

--”After North Korea and Iran: How Much More Say Should Congress Have on U.S. Nuclear Exports?” Jay Solomon, Jack Spencer, Jodi Lieberman and Don MacDonald. February 25 11:45 a.m.- 1:30 p.m. @Rayburn House Office Building. RSVP here. http://owl.li/hQKOK

--”The ROK-U.S. Alliance in the Pacific Era In Light of North Korea’s Recent Nuclear Test.” Choi Young-jin, South Korean Ambassador. February 27 6:00-8:00 p.m. @ George Washington University, Jack Morton Auditorium. RSVP here. http://owl.li/hVcph

Dessert:

More than iodine pills - The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the Pentagon’s research arm, announced yesterday that it is soliciting “information on novel therapies, methods, devices, protocols, compounds, and/or systems to mitigate the dangers that ionizing radiation poses to human health.” In other words, the agency is looking for technologies that immunize humans against the effects of nuclear radiation and mitigate the effects of radiation if exposed. Spencer Ackerman at The Danger Room has the scoop. http://owl.li/hV6mh

Virtual nuclear tourism - Ever dreamed of touring of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power plant without the added bulk and hassle of a hazmat suit? Click here for a 360 degree view of the reactor. http://owl.li/hVe39