Arms control and the Future of US-Russia Relations

On the radar: After the reset; Senate passes NDAA; Iran dates; P5+1 in January; and Detecting nuclear blasts with radio telescopes.

December 5th, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

Recommendations on Russia - US-Russia relations today are better than they were in 2008. But they have been chilly lately. Amb. Steven Pifer offers that a return to arms control could be a way for the US and Russia to improve the bilateral relationship.

--Recommendations: “There is plenty of room for further reductions: the United States and Russia each could cut their nuclear arsenals in half and still have ten times as many nuclear weapons as any third country. On missile defense, if the sides can work around Moscow’s demand for a legal guarantee, and if Washington offers greater transparency and flexibility on its plans, the pieces for a cooperative NATO-Russia missile defense arrangement could fall into place. The two countries should also consult on how to broaden the nuclear arms control process to engage third countries.”

--”By all accounts, Obama would like his presidency to be transformational on nuclear arms control and reductions. That creates an opportunity to secure Obama's attention to the US-Russia agenda-provided that the Russian side is ready to engage,” says Amb. Pifer. Full post at Brookings. http://bit.ly/RBHWLw

Senate passes NDAA - “The U.S. Senate on Tuesday voted 98-0 to approve a wide-ranging defense bill that authorizes $631.4 billion in funding for the U.S. military, the war in Afghanistan and nuclear weapons.” Reuters has the story. http://reut.rs/11U4TdP

Nuclear amendments in the bill - Barrasso (R-WY) on keeping ICBMs; Hoeven (D-MT), Tester (D-MT) and Hatch (R-UT) on keeping a triad; Nelson (D-NE) on additional oversight of NNSA; Kyl (R-AZ) and Kerry (D-MA) on consultations on arms control; and Kyl (R-AZ) and Udall (D-NM) on assessing and revising governance at NNSA. Council for a Livable World has the list. http://bit.ly/YAdCUP

NNSA overhaul - “The ineffectiveness of the [National Nuclear Security Administration] is a serious national security issue, and our amendment will take a good look at what is needed to reform it,” said Sen. Tom Udall (D-NM) on his successful amendment to the Senate defense bill.

--Sens. Kyl and Udall’s amendment would create a 12-member panel to make recommendations for revising the governance structure of NNSA, whose “membership would be bipartisan, with members appointed from the House and Senate Armed Services committees. The members would be appointed for one year and would be responsible for submitting a report within 120 days of enactment of the amendment.” Michael Coleman at the Albuquerque Journal has the story. http://bit.ly/R7Mycq

Tweet - @FitzpatrickIISS: My assessment of rising concern over Syria’s chemical weapons and Turkey's Patriot missile deployment. http://bit.ly/QHmJhG

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Tweet - ChicoHarlan: #DPRK has installed its rocket on the launch pad, Yonhap says. S. Korean officials guessing the launch will take place between Dec 10-12.

Report Launch - “Weighing Benefits and Costs of International Sanctions Against Iran” from the Iran Project. Friday from 8:30 to 10:00am at the Carnegie Endowment. Lt. Gen. Gregory Newbold, Carnegie’s George Perkovich, and William A. Reinsch will discuss the report’s findings. Amb. Thomas Pickering will moderate. Register here. http://bit.ly/Ukq4BA

$640 billion - “Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA) is urging House and Senate leaders to cut spending for nuclear weapons by more than $100 billion over the next 10 years. Markey and 43 of his fellow House Democrats sent a letter...to Harry Reid and John Boehner arguing that much of the $640 billion that’s been allocated for nuclear programs ‘defies fiscal responsibility,’” reports Politico’s “Morning defense.” http://politi.co/SMWdlp

Upcoming P5+1 talks - Diplomats are expecting a new round of P5+1 nuclear talks with Iran in January. Part of the delay in resuming talks results from the P5+1 not having agreed amongst themselves whether and how to refresh the package to be presented to Iran, reports Laura Rozen at Al-Monitor.

--“Diplomatic sources suggested international negotiators may be hoping to use the delay and distractions of the season to hold a couple quiet, technical meetings with the Iranians before the next round of high-level political talks. Such technical talks, held with minimal publicity, could be a way to try to narrow differences ahead of getting to the political directors’ meetings with Iran, where little progress to date has been made.” http://bit.ly/UnR9Up

Botched test? - Pakistan’s recent test launch of its Ghauri/Haft V missile may have failed, with pieces of the disintegrated missile landing in populated areas. Usman Ansari at Defense News has the reports. http://bit.ly/TFrQzu

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: South Asia is a nuclear flashpoint for more reasons than concerns about the security of Pakistan's nuclear stockpile. http://t.co/E4D49X3w

Iran timeline - The window for negotiations with Iran appears to be open from now until Iran’s election in June. In between, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper is expected to give his annual threat briefing on Iran, and the IAEA will issue a quarterly report on Iran’s nuclear program. Barring a breakthrough, the IAEA could also refer Iran to the UN Security Council for another round of sanctions.

--Micah Zenko looks at the calendar and the diplomatic tea leaves to ask if, somewhere in there, the U.S. or Israel might have a deadline for military strikes. Full argument at Foreign Policy. http://bit.ly/TJzyFG

Article - “Striking Iran: The Debate in Israel” by Chuck Freilich in Survival. Abstract: “A difficult security environment, electoral system and bureaucratic structure create five pathologies for Israel's national-security decision-making process.” (paywall) http://bit.ly/VmvUkD

Telescopes and tests - The CTBT international monitoring system has a powerful array of sensors that can detect nuclear explosions anywhere on the planet. Researchers from Ohio State just offered one more way to detect tests - radio telescopes.

--“A nuclear explosion—even when detonated underground—sends up a giant electromagnetic pulse that ripples through Earth's ionosphere. That effect—known as a traveling ionospheric disturbance, or TID—should theoretically be detectable with technologies that are sensitive to changes in the ionosphere, such as global satellite networks and radio telescopes.” From Science Now. http://bit.ly/SGnwPZ