The $640 Billion Question

On the radar: Cold War spending vs. 21st century realities; President sees window for diplomatic solution; What to expect from the IAEA report; French nuclear spending; Deterrence in S. Asia; and Talking past China.

November 15th, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

Budgeting for the Cold War - Twenty-three years after the Berlin Wall fell, the United States is still on track to spend $640 billion on nuclear weapons and related programs. “A huge portion of those funds are slated for replacing nearly every part of the arsenal, which would entrench a Cold War nuclear strategy well into the end of this century.”

--”The threats America faces today are a lot different than those of the 1980s. It’s time our outdated nuclear policies changed too...A smarter nuclear strategy would reduce our arsenal and forgo the costly investments needed to overhaul it,” writes your humble editor at Roll Call. http://bit.ly/T4siqO

$640 billion question - Ploughshares Fund released a new ad in Politico today, asking “Should the U.S. spend $640 billion on nuclear weapons and related programs over the next decade? Or reshape our military budget to match 21st century realities?”

--Check out the ad here. http://bit.ly/SrV8xh

Obama on Iran - “I very much want to see a diplomatic resolution to the problem...we’re not gonna let Iran get a nuclear weapon. But I think there is still a window of time for us it resolve this diplomatically. We’ve imposed the toughest sanctions in history. It is having an impact on Iran’s economy. There should be a way in which they can enjoy peaceful nuclear power while still meeting their international obligations and providing clear assurances to the international community that they’re not pursuing a nuclear weapon,” said President Obama in yesterday’s press conference.

--”I will try to make a push in the coming months to see if we can open up a dialogue between Iran and not just us, but the international community to see if we can get this thing resolved. I can’t promise that Iran will walk through the door that they need to walk through, but that would be very much the preferable option.”

--”I think it’s fair to say that we want to get this resolved and we’re not gonna be constrained by diplomatic niceties or protocols. If Iran is serious about wanting to resolve this, they’ll be in a position to resolve it.” Transcript at the Iran Primer. http://bit.ly/PW1fgX

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IAEA report preview - The upcoming IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear program is expected to show a major expansion of enrichment capacity. However, the report may also indicate that Iran has not yet begun operating newly installed centrifuges and continues to convert some of its 20% enriched uranium stockpile into reactor fuel. Fredrik Dahl at Reuters has the story. http://bit.ly/SrPBGU

Dépense nucléaire - A new French parliamentary report looked at ways to make French military spending more efficient - including by reviewing nuclear requirements to ensure excess weapons do not starve the French military for funds.

-- “France spends an annual 3.4 billion euros on the deterrent, compared with annual equipment procurement of about 10 billion euros. That level of spending called for open debate on whether the money was effectively spent on the delivery systems and was not an attack on the deterrent itself,” writes Pierre Tran has the story for Defense News. http://bit.ly/T4oupA

Report - “The Non-Unitary Model and Deterrence Stability in South Asia “ by George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment.

--”This paper explores the challenge of deterrence stability in the face of real or perceived disunity in the chain of command between top Pakistani authorities and actors who may commit violence against India (or others) of a scale that could lead to inter-state war with potential to escalate to potential use of nuclear weapons. It concludes by suggesting policy approaches that the US and other states might consider toward Pakistan to redress this set of problems.” http://bit.ly/ZzsGzy

Tweet - @ArmsControlWonk: Did you know the CTBTO has a radionuclide station on the rooftop? (pic) http://t.co/MDeW9H2F

ICBM test - Air Force Global Strike Command test launched a Minuteman III ICBM from Vandenberg Air Force Base yesterday morning. The test, intended to validate readiness and weapon accuracy, was deemed a success. USAF press release here. http://1.usa.gov/SViUCD

David’s sling - Israel’s David’s Sling missile defense system is on track to be deployed in 2014 - rounding out Israel’s multi-layered defense against incoming rockets and missiles. The Washington Post has the story. http://wapo.st/ZDDBr7

Interview - Kingston Reif of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation talks about abolishing nuclear weapons. Video at Nukes of Hazard: http://bit.ly/UqCvdj

Report - “Key Elements of Northeast Asia Nuclear-Weapons Free Zone (NEA-NWFZ)” by Peter Hayes and Richard Tanter for the Nautilus Institute. http://bit.ly/W84TqC

U.S.-China relations - “Each country’s sense of vulnerability, combined with the opposite ways we take to dealing with problems (and adding a dash of real mistrust), means a lot of hard work will be necessary to forge an effective partnership,” writes Philip Yun at the Ploughshares Fund Blog .

-- “as the U.S. and China complete their respective leadership choices, a critical start will be for both sides to recognize the exposure that each feels toward the other, and an understanding that each has a distinct way of going about its business – one that demands extra patience and time to move forward.” Full post here. http://bit.ly/UDf9XL