Arms Control and the Next Four Years

On the radar: NYT on foreign policy priorities; U.S. interests in a deal with Iran; Just do it; Outlook for Mid-East WMDFZ; Iran talks Parchin; and Pakistani and Indian Scientists on the bomb.

November 12th, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

Foreign policy agenda - “One of Mr. Obama’s singular contributions has been his vision of a world without nuclear weapons,” writes The New York Times editorial board. The Times praises the modest reductions committed to under the New START treaty and suggests the 2nd Obama administration work with Russia to “pursue further reductions in [deployed strategic nuclear weapons], and to seek cuts in warheads held in reserve and in short-range nuclear weapons.”

--”If Mr. Obama can draw the other nuclear powers, including China, Pakistan, India and Israel, into the discussions and persuade the Senate to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, so much the better.” Full editorial here. http://nyti.ms/TumEvZ

Channeling Nixon on Iran - “Pressure alone, in the form of sanctions, is not going to stop Iran’s nuclear program. At some point, as with Nixon’s bold breakthrough with China...the questions must be asked: ‘What do we want, what do they want, and what do we both want?’ Areas of overlapping interest must be developed,” writes Roger Cohen in The New York Times.

--Answering his own questions, Cohen writes that the U.S. should want Iran to open up its nuclear facilities and get rid of 20% enriched uranium. On what we can offer: Lift some sanctions, take regime change off the table, and accept a limited right to enrichment. http://nyti.ms/VXgl8o

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”The Nike Doctrine” - Nuclear arms control negotiations can be tedious, cost a lot of political capital, and produce modest results. Citing President George H.W. Bush’s unilateral reductions as a model for drawing down the nuclear arsenal today, Joan Johnson-Freese in AOL Defense argues, “Sometimes, the best path to peace and security is the straightest line. Don't wait for the lawyers who say they need more time at more conferences to see if other lawyers agree with them: just do it.” http://aol.it/Xy9brN

Tweet - @armscontrolnow: Moscow urges direct US-Iran talks http://t.co/BGfSpCsU

Conference in doubt - The conference on a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone in the Middle East, expected to take place next month in Helsinki, “may be postponed but not ‘killed’.” Fredrik Dahl at Reuters has the rumors on why diplomats are doubting the conference will go ahead as hoped.

--Given the turmoil in Syria, the state of play with Iran, and the timing of Israel’s elections, "the timing for discussing the establishment of a WMDFZ in the Middle East could hardly be worse," said Pierre Goldschmidt. http://reut.rs/Uykvnf

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: Nuke certification not 1st priority RT @insidedefense: DOD: House Bill Would Delay Key Bomber Capability By Three Years http://t.co/TmuhThOF

Parchin - “We are hopeful that with the positive step Iran has taken in resolving this issue ... this meeting will identify a framework of cooperation in regards to the issue of a visit to Parchin," said Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi. Details remain few, but Reuters has the quote. http://reut.rs/Xy9KBY

Event - Report release and briefing: “Sanctions, Military Strikes and Other Potential Actions Against Iran: Anticipating Impacts on the Global Economy" by Charles Blair of the Federation of American Scientists.

--Fri. Nov. 16 from 12:00-2:00pm @ the SAIS Kenney Auditorium. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/RSXfvA

Tweet - @carnegienpp: Join George Perkovich and Feroz Khan for a discussion about Pakistan's nuclear weapons development. Thursday, Nov. 15: ow.ly/eY90X

Book - “Confronting the Bomb: Pakistani and Indian Scientists Speak Out.” Edited by Pervez Hoodbhoy. Oxford University Press. From the abstract: ”Rejecting nuclear nationalism, this is a unique work by Pakistanis and Indians working together to warn of nuclear dangers.” http://bit.ly/WYEtsG