The Triad: Costs, Schedules and Justifications

On the radar: SSBN(X) update; Debating the other two legs of the triad; Complex failures; Red line tracking; 50th time’s the charm; Proliferation and the private sector; and Using Large Hadron Collider tech to thwart nuclear smugglers.

November 2nd, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

Current specs on SSBNX - The US Navy recently released a breakdown of the OHIO class replacement program, detailing year-by-year phases and updated specifications. The Navy initially estimated the subs to cost $6-$7 billion for each of the 12 boats, but is attempting to bring costs down to an average of $4.9 billion each. First boat expected to enter service in 2031. The US Naval Institute has the powerpoint. http://bit.ly/SiFLrA

--Fancy Ohio-Replacement infographic here.http://bit.ly/SDW0Tl

Stakeholder view - “In times of tight budgets, some claim we can no longer afford the triad and should eliminate one leg,” writes Maj. Gen. William Chambers, Air Force assistant chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration, in an op-ed in AOL Defense that argues for keeping the Air Force’s two legs of the triad.

--Where some propose cutting the ICBM leg, Maj. Gen. Chambers argues that the ICBMs remain “an existential security requirement.” Where some propose cutting the bomber leg, Maj. Gen. Chambers argues the bomber force is useful as the most visible and flexible leg of the triad.

--Quick math: Maj. Gen. Chambers notes, ”In 2011, the Air Force provided two legs of the triad for less than 1 percent of the total defense budget.” That would amount to just under $7 billion, for those playing the home game. http://aol.it/SgWRFR

Pants-kicking - The Albuquerque Journal has a greatest hits list of recent management failures within the nuclear weapons complex. The paper comments, “With the national debt at $16.2 trillion, the nation’s piggy bank just doesn’t have enough pennies saved up to pay for this mañana approach to stewardship of resources that are essential to the nation’s security. The DOE, the NNSA and its private contractors need a swift kick in their efficiency pants.” http://bit.ly/TyYmmv

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Red line, now measurable - In case Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cartoon red line at the UN was not specific enough, “Israeli officials are saying that 240 kg of 20% uranium, enough to make one bomb (allowing for the excess that normally goes to make an initial warhead), is the benchmark past which Iran will supposedly not be allow to go.” Julian Borger at The Guardian tracks the latest red line movements. http://bit.ly/Tp0BnG

Decision 2012 - Are you an undecided, swing state voter that intends to base their decision mostly on candidates nuclear weapons policies? Thought so. Global Security Newswire provides the facts on the two presidential candidates positions on nukes: “Presidential Candidates' Paths Diverge on Nuclear-Weapon Policies, Arms Control” http://bit.ly/TqdsGl

Iraq’s Additional Protocol - Iraq recently ratified the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement, something that would have been really helpful for clearing up WMD misinformation in the lead up to the Iraq War. Greg Thielmann at Arms Control Now writes about Iraq’s AP, its meaning for Iran, and the Middle East WMD-Free Zone. http://bit.ly/Qb9qXA

Fissile cleanout - 160 pounds of highly enriched uranium has been returned to Russia from Uzbekistan, with oversight by NNSA. This transfer marks the 50th of its kind over the last decade, and the Uzbek Institute of Nuclear Physics in Tashkent is now clear of the material. http://bit.ly/Qb516Y

Tweet - @aaronstein1: #Turkey Embraces Missile Defense - my take on Ankara's 15 year quest for missile defenses - http://bit.ly/PLjff6

Report - “Antiproliferation: Tackling Proliferation by Engaging the Private Sector” by Ian J. Stewart for the Belfer Center’s Project on Managing the Atom.

--”This paper sets out what measures the private sector should take in order to manage the legal, financial and reputational risks associated with involvement in proliferation-related trade, and makes recommendations to national authorities for how to support antiproliferation.” http://bit.ly/YwieaB

Tweet - @armscontrolnow: "Addressing Next Generation Proliferation Challenges," by Asst. Sec. of State Tom Countryman (from @StateDept) http://1.usa.gov/X644Pk

Quote - “The failure to adequately build up the armed forces [in the 1990s] must be made up for in order for the country not to lag behind the global leaders,” said Lt. General Yevgeny Buzhinsky in a comment on Russia’s recent moves to overhaul its nuclear arsenal. Global Security Newswire has the story. http://bit.ly/RxCTrP

Finding Higgs, thwarting smugglers - British scientists are working on a prototype using technology developed at the Large Hadron Collider to help stop fissile material smugglers.

--”The machines, which are at the prototype stage, pick up muons, a type of subatomic particle that penetrates substances that block X-rays and many other types of radiation. Their path is deflected by very dense matter, a trait that can be used to help security forces detect radioactive materials as well as containers designed to shield them.” From Robert Hutton at Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/SDMtMf