The Value of Talks with Iran

On the radar: Talk of talks with Iran; Candidates’ opportunity on arms control; Tell me how this ends; Russia tests triad; Ohio by way of Virginia; Toward a modern US nuclear posture; Lessons on Iran from 50 years ago; Russia sells missiles to India; and Palomares still not cleaned up.

October 22nd, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

Bilateral talks? - Over the weekend, The New York Times broke a big story that the U.S. and Iran, through a series of secret exchanges, may have agreed in principle to hold bilateral negotiations. The White House denied rumors of agreed talks, but the spokesman notes the U.S. remains open to the possibility. A1 story by Helene Cooper and Mark Landler here. http://nyti.ms/Rp85c6

”Secret, Deniable, and Useful” - Looking past the rumors of bilateral talks with Iran, Paul Pillar at The National Interest offers an observation: “among the most useful negotiations to take place right now would be U.S.-Iranian talks that are held in strict secrecy and that both governments would deny taking place.”

--Bilateral negotiations done in secret have a history of success, largely because they allow room to negotiate concessions by both sides and they cut out spoilers, notes Pillar. Full post here. http://bit.ly/RplYqA

Inside the rumormill - Laura Rozen at Al-Monitor has background and details on the rumored yet denied negotiations with Iran. http://bit.ly/QNasDW

For tonight - “What Obama Should Say About Iran in the Debate” by Robert Wright at The Atlantic. http://bit.ly/RPWkuD

Reiteration - Former lead Mossad member Efraim Halevy advocates for direct dialogue between Israel and Iran.

“I realized that dialogue with an enemy is essential. There is nothing to lose. Although the claim was, if you talk to them, you legitimize them. But by not talking to them, you don't de-legitimate them. So this convinced me, that we all have been very superficial in dealing with our enemies.” Laura Rozen at Al-Monitor has the story and a full interview with Halevy.http://bit.ly/WDxqV7

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Arms control debate - Nuclear arms control policies “affect the safety and security of every American,” writes Steven Pifer and Michael O’Hanlon in Foreign Policy. However, nukes are not one of the identified topics for tonight’s foreign policy debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney.

--Pifer and O’Hanlon discuss the policy records and positions of the two presidential candidates, explain the opportunity that the next administration has to reduce the nuclear threat, and offer questions and suggestions for the candidates. http://bit.ly/WDwvnE

Go to war with Iran - The Truman National Security Project have put out an Iran war simulation titled “Tell Me How This Ends.” You are the president. You make the tough choices on Iran. Play it here. http://tellmehowthisends.com/

Russian tests - Russia performed a test of all three components of its nuclear triad on Friday. Pavel Podvig at RussianForces.org has the details.

--”Bombers launch cruise missiles in a strategic forces exercise” http://bit.ly/PMkxGo
--”Test launch of a Topol missile” http://bit.ly/WDwiR7
--”Successful R-29R SLBM launch from the Sea of Okhotsk” http://bit.ly/QNomWt

New boomer design - The Navy plans on using features from the Virginia-class attack submarine in the design of its new Ohio-class replacement ballistic missile submarine.

--Sea Power Magazine reports “that the [Ohio-class replacement] will use the sail, bow, sonar, ship control system and propulsors of the Virginia class. One recent change in design will have the [Ohio-class replacement] feature sail planes rather than bow planes.” The new subs are expected to cost an average of $5 billion for each of the 12 boats. http://bit.ly/RQZQ7L

Report - “The Cuban Missile Crisis: A Nuclear Order of Battle, October and November 1962,” by Robert Norris and Hans Kristensen in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. (pdf) http://bit.ly/RddFQU

Lessons learned- The Federation of American Scientists has compiled a number of expert opinions and articles on lessons learned from the Cuban Missile Crisis. http://bit.ly/SdN9Xp

Tweet - @strobetalbott: I'll discuss lessons from Cuban Missile Crisis with @Cirincione, David Holloway & Scott Sagan tomorrow at 7pm ET: http://bit.ly/PMgt95

The path forward - Ploughshares Fund’s Joel Rubin discusses the way forward with Iran, drawing on lessons of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

--”A negotiated solution with Iran would likely involve an agreement establishing strict limits on Iran’s nuclear enrichment and a verifiable commitment to not make a nuclear weapon...It would be enforced by on-site intrusive monitoring of its program in exchange for some level of recognition of its ability to have a nuclear program and a concomitant easing of sanctions.” Full story by Rubin at The Hill.http://bit.ly/XKhz4W

Nuclear Guidance - Setting the U.S. nuclear guidance policy “is the key to all the nuclear decision-making for the next 20 years,” said Jon Wolfsthal, former advisor to the Vice President. The guidance affects what targets nuclear weapons are directed against, under what circumstances, and how many are required. The Obama administration’s review of the nuclear guidance is in the final stages, but details of the decision have not been released. Lee Michael Katz at Global Security Newswire has the story. http://bit.ly/UrXGRy

Quote - “Re-shaping our nuclear force is an issue of vision and conscience. We need the vision to recognize our world has changed, and we can't allow pork-barrel spending and bureaucratic inertia to shape our national security priorities,” writes Maj. Gen. Roger R. Blunt (USA, ret.) in an op-ed on the costs of U.S. nuclear policy and the opportunity to reshape the nuclear force for the 21st century. From McClatchy. http://bit.ly/TMM3PB

5 step program - There have been a lot of lessons about the Cuban Missile Crisis this week. Looking forward, Daryl Kimball at The Christian Science Monitor outlines 5 steps to reduce the nuclear threat today: end cold war thinking, reduce global arsenals, prevent a nuclear-armed Iran, end testing forever, and secure nuclear materials.http://bit.ly/PlEcNt

Cruise missile proliferation - India has finalized a deal to purchase 200 Brahmos supersonic cruise missiles for $1.5 billion in cooperation with Russia following a successful launch of this updated nuclear-capable cruise missile. http://bit.ly/UrPKj8

Tweet - @Gottemoeller: 5 days left! We're seeking creative ideas from you on how commonly available technologies can support arms control: http://1.usa.gov/Rd9e8F

Clean-up on aisle Palomares - In 1966, two US bombers collided and dropped four nuclear bombs near the Spanish village of Palomares. US efforts to clean-up the remaining scattered plutonium from the accident continue to this day, though Spaniards are tired of waiting for the job to get done.

--”The two [nuclear bombs] that fell to earth unsupported by parachutes blew apart on impact, scattering highly toxic, radioactive plutonium dust - a major hazard to anyone who might inhale it...[During the cleanup, American teams] literally scraped up the first three inches of topsoil, sealed it in barrels, and shipped it to a storage facility back in the US.” BBC has the details. http://bbc.in/T6O2xj