Arms Control Should be a Priority for Next Administration

On the radar: Pifer and O’Hanlon on arms control; Avoiding a repeat of the Iraq debacle; Ohio-class replacement; D’Agostino and Albright on NIF; McNamara on abolishing nuclear weapons; CMRR reprogramming stalled; and Strengthening India-Pakistan trade.

October 19th, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

After the election - The president in 2013, whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney, has the opportunity to use arms control to reduce the nuclear threat and make the U.S. and the world safer, write Amb. Steven Pifer and Michael O’Hanlon in The LA Times.

--Suggested moves for the next administration: push for a new agreement with Moscow, aiming for reductions to between 2,000 and 2,500 total warheads; Save budgets by reducing the number of new weapons systems the U.S. plans to buy; Raise the bar on nonproliferation by showing a commitment to reducing nuclear weapons; pursue cooperative missile defense with Russia; and Make progress on CTBT. http://lat.ms/ViuuxL

Iraq-ing Iran - The U.S. is using policies on Iran (sanctions, isolation, and low-level violence) that are eerily similar to the policies pursued with Iraq in the years before Operation Enduring Freedom, argue Rolf Ekeus and Malfrid Braut-Hegghammer in Foreign Affairs. “Calling for war while intensifying pressure on Iran, without also clearly defining steps Tehran could take to defuse the tension, removes any incentives for Iran to change its behavior.”

--What can the U.S. do avoid repeating history? The authors suggest offering Iran a proposal that limits Iran’s enrichment program while recognizing its right to have one. Iran would also have to cooperate with an intrusive inspections regime. “The agreement would also have to be accompanied with a list of clearly defined steps that Iran could take to achieve the lifting of sanctions,” note the authors. http://fam.ag/UdB0V2

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New boomers - The submarine community is growing worried that the rest of the military is neglecting the Ohio-class replacement submarine program, writes Sydney Freedberg for AOL Defense. The new ballistic missile submarines, costing an average of $5.6 billion for each of the 12 proposed boats, is one of the Defense Department’s largest acquisition programs.

--The new sub is feeling the budget crunch. In an effort to bring costs down, the sub will have minimum acoustic sensors, less torpedo capacity and fewer and smaller launch tubes than the Ohio-class.

--Some submariners are skeptical of dropping the torpedo requirement, wondering what the new sub can contribute to the fight after it launches its 16 ballistic missiles with 4-8 nuclear weapons each. “The unspoken answer, of course, is that if things get bad enough that a sub has fired all its nuclear weapons, there won't be much of a planet left to fight over anyway,” writes Freedberg. http://aol.it/TBdfkv

Tweet - @StanfordCISAC: Mark your calendars for our #CubanMissileCrisis panel streamed live Monday at 4 p.m. http://ustre.am/Pbe9

NIF - Earlier this month, The New York Times wrote an editorial noting the costs and troubled outlook for the National Ignition Facility, a $5 billion facility that has struggled to meet its goal of igniting a fusion reaction and simulating what happens during nuclear explosions.

--NNSA Administrator Thomas D’Agostino and Livermore Lab Director Penrose Albright respond in the Times, “To abandon [NIF] now after only a few years of effort, even while the facility is already paying dividends, would be an irresponsible disservice to national security and scientific discovery.” http://nyti.ms/RH5cCJ

Event - “Prominent Former U.S. Government Officials and Military leaders Assess the Costs of a Military Strike on Iran.” Speakers: Amb. Thomas Pickering, Gen. Anthony Zinni and nuclear expert Jim Walsh.

--Wed. Oct. 24 from 6:00-7:15pm @ the Sofitel Chicago Water Tower. Details and RSVP here. http://bit.ly/S0Ajtz

Quote - “Something like that could happen today, tomorrow, next year. It will happen at some point. That is why we must abolish nuclear weapons as soon as possible,” said Defense Secretary Robert McNamara in reflection on the ever-relevant lessons from the Cuban Missile Crisis. Full article at The Columbus Dispatch. http://bit.ly/WIizXZ

Anniversary - CTBTO marks the 11 to 12 October, 1986 Reykjavik summit between Reagan and Gorbachev with a great informational piece. http://bit.ly/W6zfb7

CMRR cash - NNSA is waiting on congressional approval of plans to reprogram $120 million in FY12 funds that had been originally slated for the now-deferred CMRR program. The House and Senate Armed Service Committees are deferring the reprogramming decision, awaiting a series of reports on the nuclear weapons complex’s post-CMRR plans. Douglas Guarino at Global Security Newswire has the story with details from HASC Chairman Buck McKeon’s letter on the matter. http://bit.ly/R8a1FF

Easing tensions - Pakistan and India renewed peace talks in July 2011 and are already seeing positive outcomes. Experts project trade to triple between the two in the next few years, now that there are 6,000 products flowing free between them — up from 137. India also announced it would allow Pakistani firms to invest in any industry but defense, space and nuclear energy. LA Times has the Story. http://lat.ms/RZ2SaP