Modernization and Strategic Stability with Russia

On the radar: New DoD Report; Spending like the Cold War didn’t end; Encouraging a “frantic arms race”; Learn from crisis, win iPad; Bipartisan letter against MEADS; Scotland considers nukes and NATO; and How to survive and atomic bomb.

October 10, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Strategic stability - A new Department of Defense report on Russia’s nuclear arsenal concludes, “the “Russian Federation…would not be able to achieve a militarily significant advantage by any plausible expansion of its strategic nuclear forces, even in a cheating or breakout scenario under the New START Treaty, primarily because of the inherent survivability of the planned U.S. Strategic force structure, particularly the OHIO-class ballistic missile submarines, a number of which are at sea at any given time.”

--Contrary to some politicians’ rhetoric on the subject, this DoD analysis indicates that the U.S. can reduce its arsenal and maintain strategic stability even while Russia modernizes its nuclear arsenal. Hans Kristensen at FAS Strategic Security has the analysis of the DoD report. http://bit.ly/TvW2hb

Exploding budgets - The U.S. could spend $640 billion over the next ten years on nuclear weapons and related programs, according to a new Ploughshares Fund Estimate. “The Cold War has been over for 20 years, the public does not think much about nuclear weapons, our political leaders rarely talk about them, but the nuclear weapons complex still operates as if the Soviet Union still threatened us,” writes Joe Cirincione at Battleland.

--”Congress will have a fierce debate over the defense budget when it returns after the election. Before our representatives eliminate vital programs that may force veterans to sacrifice well-earned benefits and soldiers, sailors and marines to forego needed supplies, bringing basic accountability and a little common sense to nuclear programs can eliminate cold war weapons we no longer need and shift budgets to those that we do,” says Cirincione. Full post here. http://ti.me/QVbmQB

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East Asian arms race - The U.S. has agreed to allow South Korea to revise its missile guidelines to increase the range of permitted ballistic missile ranges from 300 to 800 km. “This is a bad idea, one that will worsen security dynamics in Northeast Asia and accelerate the spread of long-range missiles. It represents the triumph of short-term efforts to avoid friction in an important bilateral relationship at the expense of our long-term interest in discouraging the spread of ballistic missiles,” writes Jeffrey Lewis at Foreign Policy.

--Lewis explains the origin of the missile guidelines, its relationship to South Korea’s previous nuclear weapons program, and what it means to for the Missile Technology Control Regime when the U.S. carves out exceptions for its allies. http://bit.ly/SPCmVI

--See also: “RoK Missile Rationale Roulette” by Jeffrey Lewis at Arms Control Wonk. linkhttp://bit.ly/Oo0aO4

Contest - Havard’s Belfer Center is holding a contest on the anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Guidelines: “In no more than 300 words, entrants must present the most persuasive, original lesson flowing from the confrontation that brought the world to the brink of nuclear war over 13 days in October 1962.” Winners get an iPad. Details here. http://hvrd.me/QV6j2M

More elections - “With Iran issue simmering, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu calls early elections” from NBC News. http://nbcnews.to/WR2xKr

MEADS - Sens. Mark Begich (D-AK), Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), David Vitter (R-LA), Mark Udall (D-CO), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Scott Brown (R-MA) sent a letter to Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta urging the Pentagon to not commit any funding from the recent continuing budget resolution to the troubled Medium Extended Air Defense System. Global Security Newswire has the story and the letter. http://bit.ly/Qd3biC

Last Resort - ABC has a new show involving a rogue US nuclear submarine. If you haven’t seen it, do so before reading the rest of this story. Dan Drezner at Foreign Policy sees potential in the show, but has some issues about its plot - especially how much it downplays the consequences of the “U.S. nuclear weapons that were used against Pakistan!!!!” http://bit.ly/PX258p

Scotland, nukes and NATO - As Scotland considers a vote for independence, First Minister Alex Salmond promised Scottish National Party members that Scotland would ban weapons of mass destruction - requiring the UK to relocate its trident fleet - if the SNP reverses it policy against joining NATO. The Telegraph has the story. http://bit.ly/T4YYvS

Survival - Mutual of Omaha, in 1951, offered some comforting advice: “Whatever your attitude toward use of the atomic bomb, you must live with the fact that it exists. You must also know how to protect yourself as much as you can against it.” The insurance company published a large ad showing what a nuclear blast would do to a city and explains why a white suit is better than a black suit. Boing Boing has the ad. http://bit.ly/PWZACV