$640 Billion for Nuclear Weapons and Related Programs

On the radar: Assessing the nuclear budget; Updated Iran timeline; Replacing the Ohio; Degraded confidence for UPF; Big trouble for big laser; Lingering myth from the Cuban Missile Crisis; BMD cooperation with Russia; and South, that’s right, South Korea increasing missile ranges.

October 9, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

The nuclear budget - Ploughshares Fund estimates that over the next ten years, “if nothing changes, the U.S. will spend somewhere between $620 billion and $661 billion on nuclear weapons and related programs.” There has been a lot of talk about defense cuts in Washington. Writes Plougshares Fund, “Before we cut support for our soldiers and their families, or deprive them of weapons they need in the field, shouldn't we take a hard look at the nuclear weapons budget?”

--”Our estimate [of approximately $640 billion] includes costs to maintain and modernize our existing nuclear arsenal, pay for missile defense programs, support the environmental and health costs associated with past and current nuclear weapons programs, and continue nuclear threat reduction programs. Some of these programs are entirely essential. But the cost of many programs could be reduced or eliminated if the nation were to reduce our nuclear stockpiles or adopt a different nuclear weapons posture.” From the Ploughshares Fund blog. http://bit.ly/RN9A5D

--Download the full working paper here. (pdf) http://bit.ly/TqMtA6 Also check out the infographic. http://bit.ly/VVRLTw

Iran timeline - It could take Iran 2-4 months to produce 25kg of weapons-grade uranium needed to build one nuclear weapon, given a decision to do so, with “many additional months to manufacture a nuclear device suitable for underground testing and even longer to make a reliable warhead for a ballistic missile,” according to a new report from the Institute for Science and International Security. Reuters has the story. http://reut.rs/R3YKFe

--Full 21-page ISIS report here: “Iran’s Evolving Breakout Potential” by William C. Witt, Christina Walrond, David Albright, and Houston Wood. (pdf) http://bit.ly/WMGNiC

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Ohio replacement - Replacing the existing fleet of nuclear-armed submarines is expected to cost $90 billion. That is for one of the three legs of the nuclear triad, and the Air Force is busy working to replace the ICBM and bomber legs.

--Mark Thompson at Battleland notes the changed strategic environment and shrinking nuclear stockpile and asks at what point maintaining all three nuclear systems will no longer make sense. http://ti.me/SJHF7c

UPF - "Now, I will tell you that my confidence in our ability to meet that date has been degraded, it's been eroded,” said John Eschenberg, project director for the proposed Uranium Processing Facility, about NNSA’s ability to meet a critical design decision by September 2013.

--This degraded confidence stems from a recent announcement that the project would need to be redesigned. The UPF project - before requiring redesign and likely delays - had spent $500 million of its estimated $4.2 to $6.5 billion estimated final cost. Frank Munger at The Knoxville News Sentinel has the story. http://bit.ly/UDuM1N

Speaking of degraded confidence - “After spending more than $5 billion to build and operate a giant laser installation the size of a football stadium, the Energy Department has not achieved its goal of igniting a fusion reaction that could produce energy to generate power or simulate what happens in a nuclear weapon,” writes The New York Times in an editorial.

--“Congress will need to look hard at whether the project should be continued, or scrapped or slowed to help reduce federal spending.” http://nyti.ms/RtvNDw

Romney on Iran - “I will put the leaders of Iran on notice that the United States and our friends and allies will prevent them from acquiring nuclear weapons capability. I will not hesitate to impose new sanctions on Iran and will -- and will tighten the sanctions we currently have,” said presidential candidate Mitt Romney in a foreign policy speech yesterday.

--”I will restore the permanent presence of aircraft carrier task forces in both the Eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf. And I’ll work with Israel to increase our military assistance and coordination. For the sake of peace, we must make clear to Iran through actions, not just words, that their nuclear pursuit will not be tolerated.” Transcript here. http://nyti.ms/Tr5Adk

Cold War myth - 50 years after the Cuban Missile Crisis, one myth continues to “screw up” U.S. foreign policy: the myth that President Kennedy, through steely will and a strong military, got the Soviets to back down. Les Gelb at Foreign Policy goes through the history and points out that, in fact, skillful diplomacy and compromise defused the crisis. http://bit.ly/SJLPMz

--See also: “The Cuban Missile Crisis at 50” by Joseph Nye for Project Syndicate. http://bit.ly/SPtjhm

Tweet - @NTI_GSN: U.S. Envoy Touts Trade Norms for Curbing Sensitive Nuclear Activities http://bit.ly/WMIqwX

BMD cooperation - The U.S. and Russia do not see eye to eye on European missile defense and often talk past one another. Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Celeste Wallander argues that much of Russia’s fears about the U.S. systems in Europe are unfounded and could be assuaged if Russia added its radar capabilities to the system and had a greater role in its operation.

--“Effective missile defense cooperation will improve missile defenses against Iran and at the same time reassure Russia...There are not enough win-win opportunities in national security. We should embrace this one.” Full post at Foreign Policy. http://bit.ly/UDzzjN

S. Korean missiles - “South Korea has reached an agreement with the United States that lets it more than double the range of its ballistic missiles to counter what it considers to be a growing threat from North Korea.” The New York Times has the story. http://nyti.ms/QR0hQx