Hadley: Time to Examine and Debate Options with Iran

On the radar: Costs and benefits of 8 approaches; Israeli Foreign ministry contradicts Israeli PM on sanctions; Sec. Harold Brown on nuclear war-planning; China-India Nuclear Crossroads; ICBM C2; Last Resort tonight at 8:00; and The Onion’s take on Ahmadinejad’s speech.

September 27, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Weighing the options - The situation with Iran has reached the point “where all options -- economic, political, diplomatic, and military -- must be carefully examined and substantively debated in the public domain,” writes former National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley in Foreign Policy. Hadley offers a detailed analysis of eight options for dealing with Iran’s nuclear program - ranging from the status quo to major military strikes - and assesses the costs and benefits.

--There may come a time in the future where the U.S. must choose between military action or leaving Iran with a clear path to a nuclear weapon, argues Hadley. “If there are alternatives to these two grim choices, now is the time to find them -- as well as to think through carefully the military options available.”

--Read the full paper here. Spoiler alert: No explicit recommendation included. http://bit.ly/P9wPm3

Sanctions impact - A new report from the Israeli Foreign Ministry concludes that sanctions against Iran are having a dramatic impact. This directly contradicts statements from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, more of which are expected at the UN today, that sanctions are not working.

--According to the report, Iran’s oil exports declined 50 percent, there is a 100 percent gap between Iran’s official exchange rate and the rial’s value on the black market, and the costs of bread, meat and electricity in Iran have soared. AP has the story. http://n.pr/QqFEMR

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Revisiting warplans - Two weeks ago, an article in Foreign Policy portrayed a declassified Carter administration directive (PD-59) on “Nuclear Weapons Employment” as a plan for fighting and winning a nuclear war. Former Secretary of Defense Harold Brown, who helped produce the directive, disagrees with that portrayal and provides his first-hand story of that directive and how the Carter administration interpreted it.

--Sec. Brown writes that PD-59 was intended to shore up deterrence by assuring Soviet Leaders that the regime would not survive a general nuclear war, while providing strategies for escalation dominance should a lower-level nuclear war be initiated. As Brown notes, he was and is highly sceptical that escalation control measures could work. http://bit.ly/OVA9Xv

Book - “The China-India nuclear Crossroads” by Lora Saalman of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The book is “the first serious book by leading Chinese and Indian experts to examine the political, military, and technical factors that affect Sino-Indian nuclear relations.

--In this book, editor and translator Lora Saalman presents a comprehensive framework through which China and India can pursue enhanced cooperation and minimize the unintended consequences of their security dilemmas.” (paperback $19.95) http://bit.ly/VOhv3e

Command & Control - In 2010, a communications malfunction temporarily took 50 US ICBMs offline. In the years since, the Air Force studied the problem, modernized the system, and worked to better integrate the network of ICBM silos.

--While Air Force officials are confident of the security of ICBM command and control, some outside experts point to the networks potential vulnerabilities. Global Security Newswire has the story. http://bit.ly/NTkiaH

Last Resort - "In reality, there's a lot more protocols you have to go through to fire a nuclear missile,” said actor Scott Speedman of ABC’s new show Last Resort. “But at some point you got to put all that down and get into the fiction of the show." Los Angeles Daily News has the interview. http://mnstr.me/RkOriS

--Last Resort, a series about a submarine commander gone rogue, premieres tonight at 8:00 PM on ABC. The show comes from the creator of The Shield. Supporting cast includes an SSBN, a few D5s, a Tomahawk, and probably some W76s. http://abc.tv/JgBJ3D

Keep negotiating - With some creative diplomacy and cooperation from Iran, a deal that keeps Iran from the bomb could be within reach, writes Daryl Kimball in The Christian Science Monitor. “The goal for US negotiators must be to restrict Iran's enrichment to normal reactor-grade levels and limit its stockpiles to actual nuclear power needs, while allowing more intrusive IAEA inspections to ensure that Iran has halted all weapons-related work.” http://bit.ly/QqPoqs

ICYMI - Excerpts of Ahmadinejad’s UN speech, provided by The Iran Primer. http://bit.ly/TGHr3x

The Onion’s take - “Glowing Ahmadinejad: 'I Am The Nuclear Weapon We've Been Building'” http://onion.com/Sc6q89