Debating Iran, Nukes, and Stability

July 18, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Leah Fae Cochran

Kahl and Waltz - Colin Kahl disagrees with Kenneth Waltz’s recent Foreign Affairs article that an Iranian nuclear weapon would increase stability to the Middle East. “History suggests that Tehran's development of nuclear weapons would encourage Iranian adventurism, leading to more frequent and intense crises in the Middle East. Such crises would entail some inherent risk of a nuclear exchange resulting from a miscalculation, an accident, or an unauthorized use-a risk that currently does not exist at all,” writes Kahl.

--Waltz responds by arguing that the historical record does not have as much evidence of greater adventurism from new nuclear states, as Kahl argued. And, while Waltz agrees that a preventive strike on Iran could spark a regional war, he has his doubts about the ability of the U.S. to keep Iran from the bomb. (paywall) http://fam.ag/Q5MCIx

Strategic engagement - Although Putin is still the undisputed leader of Russia, emerging forces within Russia over the last decade have created the opportunity for America to improve future strategic engagement with Russia, according to Amb. Thomas Pickering in his post at the New Atlanticist.

--Next steps could include talks on corporate missile defense, a future arms reduction treaty, removing tactical nuclear weapons from Europe, and resolving disputes left over from the Cold War. http://bit.ly/Oje2XK

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Split -The abrupt end of Israel’s coalition government yesterday means that Iran will likely be the critical issue in the upcoming election, argues Yossi Beilin in Foreign Policy.

--”Israelis, and the entire world, should know that the results of Israel's next election will determine whether the country attacks Iran, or whether it imposes the responsibility for preventing Iranian uranium enrichment on the world. The answer to this question will determine, to a large extent, Israel's future. Let us hope Israeli voters choose wisely,” writes Beilin. http://bit.ly/PeNRm5

Tweet - @chicoharlan: N. Korea's two paragraph statement about Kim Jong Eun's new job, as Marshal of the DPRK. pic.twitter.com/ldxst5Zs

Less than precise - The Precision Tracking Space System (PTSS) is a system of satellites that is supposed to be able to track ballistic missile launches with enough accuracy to guide missile defense interceptors. However, due to their distant orbits and limited apertures, the satellites will not be able to distinguish between warheads and decoys should a missile be launched from places like Iran or North Korea, writes George Lewis at Mostly Missile Defense.

--Note: PTSS is slated to receive $1.5 billion over the next 5 years to advance its missile defense mission. http://bit.ly/NMUreG

Kyl & Co. - A new letter to Sec. Panetta from eight senators argues that the administration needs to spend more on the nuclear weapons complex - specifically on CMRR - in accordance with the Section 1251 Report. They ask the administration to work with the Senate and House Appropriations Committees - both which deferred funding CMRR - to add funds for that program.

--Signers: Sens. Kyl (R-AZ), Nelson (D-NB), McCain (R-AZ), Lieberman (I-CT), Corker (R-TN), Isakson (R-TN), Inhofe (R-OK), and Ayotte (R-NH). http://bit.ly/SGHurU

Tweet - @CNSWolfsthal: New Kyl letter to Panetta shows more callous disregard for history. Obama fulfilling promises made in ‪#NewSTART‬, House GOP is the problem.

Just in case - The U.S. is planning a Middle East minesweeping exercise with 20 allies in September as the Pentagon continues to buttress military visibility around the Persian Gulf.

--The exercise will focus “on a hypothetical threat to mine the international strategic waterways of the Middle East, including the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Gulf of Oman, and the Persian Gulf,” according to a statement from the U.S. Central Command. Tony Capaccio at Bloomberg Businessweek has the story.http://buswk.co/NC1dcs

Qatar Radar - The Pentagon plans to deploy an AN/TPY-2 radar in Qatar, enhancing the U.S. ability to detect and track missile launches from Iran. Officials say the U.S. military also wants to deploy the Army’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD) in the region, possible in the UAE. Adam Entous and Julian Barnes of the WSJ have the story. (paywall) http://on.wsj.com/OGeGeh

Report - “Religious Movements, Militancy, and Conflict in South Asia” by Robert Lamb, Liora Dana, Joy Aoun, Sadika Hameed, Kathryn Mixon, and Denise St. Peter of CSIS. (pdf) http://bit.ly/Mwn4CN

Volunteers? - Footage of the five volunteers who apparently said, “Ooo pick me!” when asked if they wanted to stand under a nuclear explosion in 1957. “You have to see it to believe it,” writes NPR. http://n.pr/Ntjk0t