The Danger of Brinksmanship in the Middle East

July 12, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Leah Fae Cochran

Brinkmanship - Although there are efforts underway to defuse the simmering crises with Iran and Syria, the diplomatic brinkmanship involved could very well escalate into a broader Middle East war, warns David Ignatius in The Washington Post.

--”The Obama administration has opted to work with international coalitions to confront Syria and Iran. This still seems like the most sensible policy. But if these multilateral efforts are failing, it will fall to the United States to devise an alternative strategy. If the United States wants to get to ‘yes’ in these negotiations, it will have to bargain more independently and aggressively,” writes Ignatius. http://wapo.st/Lbd8Zh

Tweet - @MicahZenko: Another break-in at Pelindaba nuclear site (S. Africa) where there is 600 kgs more HEU than in Iran. http://bit.ly/M4Lscz

Translating Pentagonese - The Pentagon’s recent report on Iran’s military had got a lot of media attention, including some misleading headlines on a future Iranian ICBM. Reading between the lines of the report, Greg Thielmann at Arms Control Now notes “The report includes nothing to suggest a shift in emphasis from short- and medium-range to longer-range missiles.”

--In 2010, the Pentagon said, “With sufficient foreign assistance, Iran could probably develop and test an [ICBM]” by 2015. The 2012 report says, “With sufficient foreign assistance, Iran may be technically capable of” testing an ICBM. “Sounds like ratcheting the odds downward a notch,” says Thielmann. http://bit.ly/MmVBj3

Missile transfers - One change in the Pentagon’s Iran military report is the statement that Iran has provided “Hizballah with increasingly sophisticated weapons, including a wide array of missiles and rockets.” Jeffrey Lewis at Arms Control Wonk sees this language change as possibly the clearest official statements on the topic. http://bit.ly/NApv4D

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Sanctioning discrimination - Sanctions on Iran have become so expansive and difficult to enforce that, with the intent to comply with them, some retail employees at Apple stores have denied sales to Persian speaking customers. Jamal Abdi writes of these unintended and discriminatory consequences in “Sanctions at the Genius Bar” for The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/PSKy6u

The next sanctions - The Senate passed another round of sanctions on Iran in May. The House version passed in December, but it has some big differences with the Senate’s bill. The two houses have thus far been unable to find a compromise draft bill. Josh Rogin at Foreign Policy asks “Will Congress pass new Iran sanctions this year?” http://bit.ly/OzX04K

Prompt Global Strike - “Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues.” New CRS report from Amy Woolf. (pdf) http://bit.ly/N2vy4l

Medicare and HEU - In a new plan to reduce the amount of highly enriched uranium used to produce medical isotopes, medical facilities would be given financial incentives to use isotopes produced without HEU when running diagnostics on Medicare patients. Global Security Newswire has the details. http://bit.ly/NmgVqB

Iranian Amb. on escalation - Iran’s ambassador to the UN, Mohammad Khazaee, said that Iran is not planning to escalate confrontation with the West amid ongoing talks over its nuclear program. The remarks, made in an interview with Al-Monitor, stand in contrast to past statements about closing the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation to sanctions. http://bit.ly/NMrSA3

LockMart wants to keep Sandia - Lockheed Martin wants to keep its contract for management at Sandia National Labs, which is coming up for bid. Sandia has an annual budget of $2.4 billion. LockMart and its predecessor have managed Sandia since 1993. John Fleck at The Albuquerque Journal has the story. http://bit.ly/NgQ8JT

Article - “Kicking the Hornets’ Nest: Iran’s Nuclear Ambivalence and the West’s Counterproductive Nonproliferation Policies,” by Patrick Disney in the latest edition of The Nonproliferation Review. (paywall) http://bit.ly/NjGqXh

Tweet - @Wellerstein: Low-yield "Atomic Demolition Munition" — it looks like something you could shove in a duffle bag. What could go wrong? http://bit.ly/NOSW1E