Understanding Iran’s Negotiating Positions

July 5, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Leah Fae Cochran

Sustained dialogue - Iran is seeking to normalize its nuclear file with the IAEA and get sanctions relief in a framework for “comprehensive and targeted dialogue for long term cooperation,” according to a document from Iran’s mission to the UN. From the document, Iran says it seeks recognition of its right to enrich and rejects P5+1 proposals for closing Fordow and exporting 20% uranium.

--Iran and the P5+1 held technical talks over the last two days in Istanbul, and have agreed to keep talking at least through the U.S. presidential elections. Dates and locations TBD. Barbara Slavin of Al-Monitor has the story. http://bit.ly/NzWimN

Surplus - Disguised tankers full of Iranian oil float in the Persian gulf, as Iran attempts to find ways to store the 2.8 million barrels a day it is producing despite only being able to export 1.6 to 1.8 million barrels a day, according to The New York Times.

--”The unsold crude is being stored in what has been estimated to be two-thirds of the Iranian tanker fleet. Most of the ships are sailing in circles around the Persian Gulf as Iran tries to sell the mostly heavy crude at bargain-basement prices. International oil experts estimate that Iran is now warehousing as much as 40 million barrels — roughly two weeks of production — on the tankers.” Thomas Erdbrink and Clifford Krauss have the story. http://nyti.ms/MX4Zff

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Dealing with Putin - Russian President Vladimir Putin is frustrating to deal with, but he could be the United State’s best choice for helping diplomatically resolve the crises with Iran and Syria. “The road to progress in the Middle East may now lead through Moscow,” writes Amb. Nicholas Burns in The Boston Globe. http://b.globe.com/LqNpC2

O’Reilly - “Lt. Gen. Patrick O'Reilly, the head of the Missile Defense Agency, mismanaged his office, harassed and bullied his senior staff, and overall failed in his leadership of the Pentagon's largest program, according to a previously undisclosed [DoD Inspector General] report,” writes Josh Rogin for The Cable.

--Rogin has the highlight reel of O’Reilly’s reported mismanagement, sprinkled with quotes and gratuitous cursing. O’Reilly is scheduled to retire in November, but the IG is encouraging disciplinary action sooner. http://bit.ly/O99a4m

Tweet - @Cirincione: From what I hear, the chaos in MDA's leadership is nothing compared to chaos in its anti-missile programs.

Sagan - “Nuclear weapons may have been a dangerous necessity to ensure the cold war stayed cold. But scholars and policy-makers who are nostalgic for the brutal simplicity of that era’s nuclear deterrence do not understand how much the world has changed,” writes Scott Sagan in his article “A Call for Global Nuclear Disarmament” in Nature.

--”If we fail to work together to achieve nuclear disarmament, the world we’re heading towards - bristling with nuclear-weapons states, with more nuclear weapons, and the ever-present threat of nuclear terrorism - is even more fraught with danger.” (paywall) http://bit.ly/LR9dVr

Now is better - Reza Marashi warns against the wait-until-after-the-election dynamic now being embraced in the Iran talks.

--”If Obama is reelected, Congress will be no less destructive; Israel will be no less obstinate; and there is always the need to protect the Democratic brand for the next round of elections. At present, there is little reason to believe that a second Obama term will provide more flexibility on the various limitations that plagued his first term from the outset,” Marashi writes in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/LR6wmX

Shahab 3 - Iran reported that it test launched a Shahab 3 missile during recent exercises. The missile has a range of approximately 1,200 miles. Global Security Newswire has the story. http://bit.ly/Rjj6M6

MacFarlane and nuclear waste - The struggle to find a safe and permanent site to store America’s nuclear reactor waste is still unresolved points out The New York Times editorial page. Allison MacFarlane, a nuclear waste expert, was confirmed June 29 to lead the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

--She had previously been on a Presidential blue-ribbon commission that made several recommendations of ways to handle the waste. “Those recommendations are sensible,” writes The New York Times, “And President Obama and Congress should work with the states to move that ahead.” http://nyti.ms/NadB1e

Real Iran - “U.S. policy must be focused on how we can support ‘real Iran’ in their struggle to win the freedom and dignity they deserve. Military strikes will not be helpful in this regard. What is needed is a ‘real Iran’ policy agenda, one that takes into account the aspirations and needs of ordinary Iranians,” writes Rob Sobhami in Forbes. http://onforb.es/O9dX62

At the brink - “Linguistic analysis reveals how advisers influenced President Kennedy during the Cuban missile crisis 50 years ago.” David R. Gibson has the analysis in his article “Nuclear Deterrence Decisions at the Brink” for Nature. (paywall) http://bit.ly/MY1OkP

Doomsday in the newsroom - In 1971, NORAD erroneously sent a teletype to every US radio and TV station announcing that the President had activated emergency broadcast protocols - meaning nuclear war with the Soviet Union was underway.

--NORAD quickly cancelled the protocol with another teletype. But, for a few terrifying minutes, a lot of newsrooms braced for nuclear apocalypse. Gizmodo has the story and the teletypes. http://bit.ly/LqV4Af